One of the dumbest threads of all time. U.S. stocks are not even close to being a bubble. Jeez doesn't anyone remember 2000? Compare MSFT, CSCO, INTC, YHOO JNPR, ect.'s prices then to now.
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Biggest bubble of all time
- Thread starter Kicking
- Start date
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=112658
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
One of the dumbest threads of all time. U.S. stocks are not even close to being a bubble. Jeez doesn't anyone remember 2000? Compare MSFT, CSCO, INTC, YHOO JNPR, ect.'s prices then to now.
Bubbles may be in the eye of the beholder. By a metric I follow, equity valuations have been at historically high levels since 1996 (consistently higher during the past twelve years than 1929's peak value). This can lead us to two conclusions: valuations have hit a permanently higher plateau; or, the 2000 bubble never fully deflated.Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
One of the dumbest threads of all time. U.S. stocks are not even close to being a bubble. Jeez doesn't anyone remember 2000? Compare MSFT, CSCO, INTC, YHOO JNPR, ect.'s prices then to now.
No question that lower yields are a significant contributor to higher equity prices. Valuations today are still much higher compared to other low-yield periods (1900 - late 1960's).Quote from makloda:
Or bond yields have come down compared to the 70s and 80s, making equities relatively more attractive.
Quote from QQQShort:
Bubbles may be in the eye of the beholder. By a metric I follow, equity valuations have been at historically high levels since 1996 (consistently higher during the past twelve years than 1929's peak value). This can lead us to two conclusions: valuations have hit a permanently higher plateau; or, the 2000 bubble never fully deflated.
Are you willing to discuss your "metric"?
S&P 500 PE using ten-year average earnings instead of one-year earnings. Ten-year average earnings -- which was suggested by Shiller in his book "Irrational Exuberance" -- has an intuitive appeal to me because it helps smooth the impacts of business cycles and creative impulses that sometimes affect GAAP results.Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Are you willing to discuss your "metric"?
Bitstream,
Agreed. Bubbles are caused by euphoria, not doubt. A multi year bear market appears to be a foregone conclusion. People talking about depression, comparisons with japan, etc. etc. Go back and look at the tech bubble charts...go to wikipedia and read about the great depression...
these are not analagous to markets at present.
Agreed. Bubbles are caused by euphoria, not doubt. A multi year bear market appears to be a foregone conclusion. People talking about depression, comparisons with japan, etc. etc. Go back and look at the tech bubble charts...go to wikipedia and read about the great depression...
these are not analagous to markets at present.