Big Picture Possibility... First Good, Then Very Bad

[murray t turtle]

Scataphagos said: "The bad news is that once the 5 Waves Up is completed (and Trump is going to try to make sure it isn't before the 2020 election), "that's all she wrote, folks" for this bull.... and our market/country will be in deep doo-doo with overextended debt, sky-high valuations, and little/nothing in reserve.... big bust in the making."

My model suggests that there is no benign way out, irrespective of whether the top is a spike or a couple of years of sideways topping. Would you hold 2030-maturing I-bonds with 2.5% interest plus inflation adjustment during the crash/depression/unrest? Will Uncle Sam pay his bond holders?

%%
Well;
since when has the gov ever ripped anybody off?? LOL, Except for over regs,too low prices for land takings, stop silver certs,outlaw + turn in the gold coins, unless you are a collector LOL. Bonds so seldom pay off ,no on 2.5% i may buy some local, not Chicago Or CA.[ NO not really pay the bondholders, really cause they are spending so much/ printing so much; most likley get really nothing, cause a home + guns most likely goes up WAY more >>>>>>>>>>>>than 2.5%

Pre election super strong years[[4years+/]; the weakest rally= summertime, could get weaker. I'm still bullish til close =44/4o minUtes ; that is why i suggested a youNg trader buy one share of QQQ or more if he could afford to lose j his investment trade learning.,,

 

[gaussian]

All just a "back burner" consideration for now, but HUGE if it turns out that way. Suggest giving it more thought if the 3x high in the Dow gets taken out in a big way.

This sounds like a good way to leave yourself an out in case you're wrong and claim to be an oracle if you are right.

All this wave theory sounds like literal magic.

 

[Scataphagos]

This sounds like a good way to leave yourself an out in case you're wrong and claim to be an oracle if you are right.

All this wave theory sounds like literal magic.

Not looking for an out or a claim. Could well be that it takes more than a year for it to play out... 2020 election and all. In any event even if correct I won't be referring back to this post with a "see, I told you".

There is validity to waves... especially the bigger concepts.

 

[murray t turtle]

Not looking for an out or a claim. Could well be that it takes more than a year for it to play out. In any event even if correct I won't be referring back to this post with a "see, I told you".

There is validity to waves... especially the bigger concepts.

%% I never could make much use of it. Even thoUgh i like/respect Paul Tudor Jones liking it-for some reason. Most of my opinion of it is this + this is why i dont have many friends One champion trader told jack Schwager Elliot Wave is like sitting besides the pond for year$ waiting for the tidal waVe LOL_LOL No offence

That champ trader al$o shares how he early reads the WSJ,NY NY; i never read WSJ early= i dont want thier mostly PE charts garbage in my mind LOL Spell checker not used.......

 

[Scataphagos]

I get what you're saying about EWaves. I got into it years ago after buying the Frost & Prechter book. I even bought EWave software. It wasn't good "picking 'em". Some people try to use Elliott heavily but rarely with good results. Still, the bigger concepts are valid (any maybe a lot more... that I don't read correctly along with most others.).

 

[murray t turtle]

I get what you're saying about EWaves. I got into it years ago after buying the Frost & Prechter book. I even bought EWave software. It wasn't good "picking 'em". Some people try to use Elliott heavily but rarely with good results. Still, the bigger concepts are valid (any maybe a lot more... that I don't read correctly along with most others.).

%% And i dont regret buying the book ''ALL American Hedge fund'' book by T Sykes; i did not get much out of his free doWn load of that book ;prefer paper books I dont get his free stock picks or do $5.00penny stocks. But no law againsT $5 ETFs; in a severe bear trend could slam many of them that low.
I dont regret buying into a free ETF , but i wrote down hold it @ least 30 days+ figured it would be a loser for 30 days LOL. Turned out OK; Some of those ''free'' ETFs have scary volume; pattern looks like a scattergun bird shot, chart pattern all over the map, dots .................................................................................................................

 

[dozu888]

lol if someone is using waves and i think a few days ago the op was looking at head and shoulders?... this TA stuff sure has a lot of people confused... completely.

don't complain.... you cant beat them.... join them!

I will ask these 2 questions again.

- find me an asset class, anywhere in the world, high quality as the SP500 and yielding 5.x%;
- and what the f is everybody waiting for.

too many people are just butt hurt from missing this big bull market from 2009... all the signs are pointing to SP fair value 5000 and yet people just don't have it in them to get rich.

 

[murray t turtle]

lol if someone is using waves and i think a few days ago the op was looking at head and shoulders?... this TA stuff sure has a lot of people confused... completely.

don't complain.... you cant beat them.... join them!

I will ask these 2 questions again.

- find me an asset class, anywhere in the world, high quality as the SP500 and yielding 5.x%;
- and what the f is everybody waiting for.

%% HUH??,?????
Yield is 1.8%, on SPY
Its not just a small summer rally tend to trend weakest, weakesT of all the quarters; i have plenty of longs ,small caps ETF.
Good points on investing.

I like a good or great uptrend+ suggested a new trader get in QQQ, today about an hour to close; + don"t trade /invest with money you cant afford to lose.
Small caps tend to beat SPY+ beat it well !!!!!, Small caps maybe more of a roller coa$ter+ same with QQQ; but IBD[investors.com] made a fortune on small caps.Dividends a bout the same ; but some those free semi liquid ETFs pay more of a dividend; but chart pattern can look like a shotgUn pattern====== ,==all over the chart dots LOL...................................................................................................... My current small cap ETF, i payed a buy comission many month$ ago, but multi-----million average day volume.
I never pay much attention to subjective stuff like H&S+ never told IBD===== i never could define a cup with handle pattern LOL=too subjectiVe-Murray TT

 

[Turveyd]

The Bubble will burst after he leaves, if he can't stop the burst before 2025, then he just won't win ( Fix ) the next election.

The bigger this bubble gets before it bursts the more damage it's going to do, mid sized crash here, 2025 bankrupt USA and likely take the UK with it and others.

2008's blunder won't be a big deal anymore, eccksss 11years since the banks got bailed out, scarey!!

 

[dozu888]

%% HUH??,?????
Yield is 1.8%, on SPY
Its not just a small summer rally tend to trend weakest, weakesT of all the quarters; i have plenty of longs ,small caps ETF.
Good points on investing.

I like a good or great uptrend+ suggested a new trader get in QQQ, today about an hour to close; + don"t trade /invest with money you cant afford to lose.
Small caps tend to beat SPY+ beat it well !!!!!, Small caps maybe more of a roller coa$ter+ same with QQQ; but IBD[investors.com] made a fortune on small caps.Dividends a bout the same ; but some those free semi liquid ETFs pay more of a dividend; but chart pattern can look like a shotgUn pattern====== ,==all over the chart dots LOL...................................................................................................... My current small cap ETF, i payed a buy comission many month$ ago, but multi-----million average day volume.
I never pay much attention to subjective stuff like H&S+ never told IBD===== i never could define a cup with handle pattern LOL=too subjectiVe-Murray TT

earning yield.... div is irrelevant..

also on the small caps... I think there is a big shift going on favoring the big guys... you see 50% of qqq is the top 4-5 companies.... with the AI revolution coming up this is gonna favor the big companies with the resources to do big stuff... IWM having higher P/E than QQQ just doesn't make sense... also there is data fudging in the IWM by removing the negative earnings.