Big Move Up Imminent

[MacroEvent]

i still think that 1170 for the spx is the first good test of support once the 1201 level was broke --- may happen this week if we do not get some catalyst for the buyers to give it another shot.


below 1170 it will get wild and a run down to the lower 1100 levels could make the prior august {2004} 1060 area as the next major support level --- this could all play out from here until the end of 2006.

i just hope we can hold a good wide trading range for a year or two!

 

[science_trader]

Quote from VisionTrader:


I always keep an eye on volume, no matter which instrument I play. What I see across several of the indexes is a huge volume spike to the downside and then stabilization on high volume. This means that someone was buying down here and I suspect it was not us little boys.

Do you realize that volume is the number of shares/contracts BOUGHT & SOLD AT THE SAME TIME ? If you were doing a study on volume realized as market orders and as limit orders, I could understand there is some value behind your reasoning, but here, I'm not really convinced on such an argument.

 

[gharghur2]

Great bearish posts TY

We still need to test S&P 1179 and 1165 cash, then maybe 1146.
Any lower, and this market is in serious trouble

 

[Sintax]

Quote from science_trader:

Do you realize that volume is the number of shares/contracts BOUGHT & SOLD AT THE SAME TIME ?

None the less, an increase in volume always means an increase in **new owners**.

 

[VisionTrader]

Quote from science_trader:

Do you realize that volume is the number of shares/contracts BOUGHT & SOLD AT THE SAME TIME ? If you were doing a study on volume realized as market orders and as limit orders, I could understand there is some value behind your reasoning, but here, I'm not really convinced on such an argument.

Ask yourself who was the buyer on those days? Was it your buds here at ET? Who bought and why?

On 10/6 approximately 1.6M shares exchanged hands on the ES. Look at the bar/candle on that day. Looks like about a 15 point range, yet the close was only down around 3 pts. What do you think happened here?

Don't get all excited, I am just making some conversation here. If you are short so be it. I just would not want to be right now because I think a move up is coming that's all. It may never happen, let's see.

 

[science_trader]

Quote from Sintax:

None the less, an increase in volume always means an increase in **new owners**.

???????????????????????????????

 

[science_trader]

Quote from VisionTrader:

Ask yourself who was the buyer on those days? Was it your buds here at ET? Who bought and why?

On 10/6 approximately 1.6M shares exchanged hands on the ES. Look at the bar/candle on that day. Looks like about a 15 point range, yet the close was only down around 3 pts. What do you think happened here?

Don't get all excited, I am just making some conversation here. If you are short so be it. I just would not want to be right now because I think a move up is coming that's all. It may never happen, let's see.

Don't worry, if I'm long or short, it's rougly on a 1 hour scale....

Market microstructure and order placement seems to be something totally neglected nowadays but you can be sure some day in the future (10 years ?) people will understand better what I mean. However I'm sure that even now some of them are understanding it perfectly.

I leave you with your thoughts on who and what is moving the market while you should ask yourself 'how'.

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from gharghur2:

Great bearish posts TY

We still need to test S&P 1179 and 1165 cash, then maybe 1146.
Any lower, and this market is in serious trouble

if oil gets real bullish again for whatever reason {above 70 and holds} those levels will be speed bumps on a down hill street.

 

[steveosborne]

Quote from MacroEvent:

if oil gets real bullish again for whatever reason {above 70 and holds} those levels will be speed bumps on a down hill street.

Fortunately for those fearing this scenario, oil seems to have found a nice and cozy equilibrium around $61 that might last for a while, which reminds me that I should go to bed now.

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from MacroEvent:

if oil gets real bullish again for whatever reason {above 70 and holds} those levels will be speed bumps on a down hill street.

Big IF for oil