Interesting question raised.
The markets are always right with a certain probability probably in the super high 90s, The same way polls have accuracy. +-3.
Polls rely on representative samples.
Markets rely on informed market participants.
Now, it's obvious, that markets with higher volume, more participants and more at stake reflect with more accuracy the current state of affairs.
You wouldn't "perceive" that from watching the DOW beaten up and down like a rag doll for the past weeks but it does. Extreme Volatility reflect the craziness of the federal market moves to save "us" and the falling dominos (failed hedge funds, failed countries : Iceland, Hungary, Argentina, coming next near you, failing municipal & corporate bonds) . big events, big ripples. Big erratic moves in fact do not reflect a failure of the theory, they reinforce it.
I solidified my belief in efficient market theory just while writing this post.
Oh yeah and Intrade is right, Obama is totally going to win.
The markets are always right with a certain probability probably in the super high 90s, The same way polls have accuracy. +-3.
Polls rely on representative samples.
Markets rely on informed market participants.
Now, it's obvious, that markets with higher volume, more participants and more at stake reflect with more accuracy the current state of affairs.
You wouldn't "perceive" that from watching the DOW beaten up and down like a rag doll for the past weeks but it does. Extreme Volatility reflect the craziness of the federal market moves to save "us" and the falling dominos (failed hedge funds, failed countries : Iceland, Hungary, Argentina, coming next near you, failing municipal & corporate bonds) . big events, big ripples. Big erratic moves in fact do not reflect a failure of the theory, they reinforce it.
I solidified my belief in efficient market theory just while writing this post.
Oh yeah and Intrade is right, Obama is totally going to win.