Big celebration today ...

[countryBoy641]

Seems everybody was so elated that rates haven't gone up in almost a week.
And maybe some news about Credit Swisse.
but what happens if the bond market makes another new high in a few months or less.
Ya know, Shit happens.

Here's 10 year T-Note
Negative Divergence.
That means higher yields are still expected.
Same on 5-year and 30 year.
This bear is not your father's Oldsmobile.

 

[maxinger]

Big celebration every day.

 

[SunTrader]

If bonds make a new high, yields go lower - ya know works inversely.

Divergences, without a reaction, happen all the time. Look at all those equal high readings, while price continued making new high after new high.

Confirmation bias often clouds vision.

 

[countryBoy641]

OK thanks for the comment, but that IS a yield chart, not a price chart.

Before I took the Series 7, I was a Muni Bond Salesman, late 1970s.. Back in the day, that was called a Series 51. 15% no federal tax. That was the top. . Imagine that."Whoops 3, 4, and 5 were 15.50%. When I worked at Dean Witter, I was in charge of all Muni bond sales for the office.

That $tnx chart has a high near 4.00%
But I think rates are still going higher, eventually.
Yesterday's buyers will turn into to.orrows bagholders.
IMHO.

 

[SunTrader]

I know what it is but even if I didn't I would look to your chart image which says yield not actuals or futures. But yields only move once actual paper or futures move.

Bagholders as you put it are institutional money (pension, mutual and hedge funds, family offices, foreign governments) almost all buy at various prices/yields/expirations. "Just another walk in the park" for them higher or lower.

 

[countryBoy641]

I used to have a friend who was a Series 7 broker, in his past.
He changed and became a data saleman (Interactive Data).
He was a real "people person". Knew everybody.
But he had to give up being a retail stock broker.
Because when he walked down the main street of his town, he would have to cross the street if one of his customers was waking towards him.
His words, not mine.

Bagholders come in all shapes and sizes.
But back in the day, that word was not in use, I never heard that.
The verb I always heard was: "Lobotomized".
Does carry a hint of finality, doesn't it.

 

[countryBoy641]

OK, found the price chart for the ten year Treas.

Positive Div says there is a good bounce coming.
But as a TA guy, I'm looking at that MACD line.

-4.6 That's the lowest in 20 year history.
MACD that low is a huge problem for bonds.

On the other hand, note the MACD on the $SPX.
Same timeframe, same monthly bars.
MACD is much higher.
Of course, bonds topped 2 years ago, SPX topped 10 months ago.

Stocks are somewhat a hedge against inflation.
But bonds have zero hedge against inflation.

 

[countryBoy641]

Noted higher up in this thread, Treasury rates needed to make new highs (in yield).
Today they did.
Big outside day. Bond Traders getting faked out.
Stocks, bear market continues.

 

[murray t turtle]

OK thanks for the comment, but that IS a yield chart, not a price chart.

Before I took the Series 7, I was a Muni Bond Salesman, late 1970s.. Back in the day..... no federal tax. That was the top. .
When I worked at Dean Witter, I was in charge of all Muni bonds....
Yesterday's buyers will turn into to.orrows bagholders.
IMHO.

%%
Congrats on sellin' tax free stuff\ i still see some good patterns in my tax free Roth, any back door Roth.
I never figured you were a boy/ but on the other hand; Dave Ramsey admitted to being a red neck /LOL .I'm fairly selective about my music;
The whisky ain't workin' anymore\ that's what i'm looking for /
T Tritt song >>1 million Video Views. No MACD on my charts; i use MAR.....

 

[countryBoy641]

%%
Congrats on sellin' tax free stuff\ i still see some good patterns in my tax free Roth, any back door Roth.
I never figured you were a boy/ but on the other hand; Dave Ramsey admitted to being a red neck /LOL .I'm fairly selective about my music;
The whisky ain't workin' anymore\ that's what i'm looking for /
T Tritt song >>1 million Video Views. No MACD on my charts; i use MAR.....

YUP, back then it was called a Series 51.
Probably doesn't exist anymore, folded into the Series 7.

One big advantage of selling stocks and bonds to people is the emotional feedback.
Nobody wants others to loose money. (not normal people anyway)
My Series 51 and Series 7 days are way behind me.
But those registrations really put an emotional brake on a person, seeing your ideas play out on innocent strangers.
A lot of the folks on ET should try that.
It would put a brake on the gushing enthusiasm some show here.