You're delusional. NTRS hasn't had anywhere near a 30% cycle in three days. And Google, a member of the SP500, is a MUCH better trading vehicle. Not to mention that if you look at daily or shorter bars, NTRS trades in an undesirable, choppy manner, unlike GOOG (see next two posts). No wonder you lost -24% in that trading contest. And thanks for showing yet again how you're totally full of crap.
big bank traders vs all
- Thread starter xxfunguyxx
- Start date
Not true. Get your facts straight.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1936900#post1936900
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1936900#post1936900
Thank you for posting the chart. It is better for me to mark up a chart you provide than for me to dig up a chart you can and will object to. Here is your chart annotated to point out the two three day runs of NTRS which fell short of 30% moves; 0one was the usual 10% and the other was only 20% Why, when and how this happens is more or less obvious to someone who is filling in the Initial analysis sheet. You can look back a couple of years and see this repeated four times a year but at the 30% I mentioned.
I marked 10% intervals from the base (10, 20 and almost 30)
As you see NTRS does its thing quite well in three days and in both of those times reasonable gains were achieved. If you used 12 days of the year to do each example twice you only, compounded, double your capital (192%) over those 12 days of the year instead of the 289% which occurred in past years when 30% trades happened.
Also showing but not annotated are six other trades that are in the 10% in three days category. As a trader develops a nice universe, it becomes apparent that some stocks are "reliable" for trading. Here is one that settles back to a support level and as you see about 8 trades of 10% or more (three day duration) occurred off the base.
There are 100's of stocks that rotate through the Universe that offer frequent opportunities. The better ones ar moving in 20% or more ranges and the range is tipped up over time.
This is how the initial analysis sheet, when completed, affords the RANK NTRS gets.
As I've suggested It is a good idea to look at "Putting the Pieces Together" and get familiar with using the Universe and batting orders for your players in conjunction with the "unusual volume" on Q charts. By reading the Iterative Refinement thread, you can keep informed about the available PVT resources and where to go to get them.
As you see NTRS, this year, is frightening to Trader666. His post of the chart is real and frightening to him. As you see he prefers AAPL for what he does. The unusual volume chart will not work for AAPL simply because AAPL is not a high Quality stock by the critieria we use to get a universe. The goal of having a Universe is to have repeatable (meaning the stock price moves the same way as time passes while the stock is on the list)
The stocks being posted by trader666 are not suitable for PVT trading.
He doesn't feel PVT trading works compared to his profitable method of trading.
Our difference of view is may be based on something. were I to make a comparison, I would use the compound interest formula and a year of tading to have a reasonable comparison.
What I shoot for in the formula is a high turns rate and I make the profit per turn a minimum of 10%. I like to do 100 turns per year where the exit in the am is followed by a pm entry. (2 1/2 days per trade or 5 days for 2 turns).
I do not believe AAPL. IBM or GOOGLE can be traded in three days to make 10% as reliably as the Universe we select in PVT using the high beta rules for the universe.
I assume that Trader666 knows all these things since he reads all our posts and maintains an archive of our posts, documentation, and videos.
We feel that a FA/TA platform (s) can be used to trade PVT whether or not a person has a full time job. It is necessary to use your mind and think critically. It is also necessary to have a high beta universe to have repeatable stocks. 30 minute charts suffice for this when unusual volume is being used in real time. The unusual volume chart is what gives the timing for any one trading PVT. If a person is full time, I would expect PVT trading is done along side SCT and every Friday excess profits from SCT are put in PVT streams.
PVT steams are limited to 100,000 shares per stream and intially four equal streams are the place to begin. Stock like NTRS get traded more than once a year and between trades other stock use the capital in that stream. At the beginning it is common to see the shares traded advance in amount as profits are compounded. I have used an example of 300 going to 400 going to 700. As you saw by the repeatability of NTRS in the chart. A trade would begin in the 65 range. Two years ago the range began at 30 or so for NTRS and the top of the range, I believe, was in the low 40's.
trader666 prefers AAPL, IBM and Google for his reasons. I am not sure what he does or how he trades. He does not chat about those things nor does he post any codes of what he posts equity curves on. He does not characterize his equity curves by posting the standard descriptors so, in my opinion , they are not informative.
Data off a equity graph shows his work yields a 400,000 dollar loss for 25,000 trades as I remember. This is a 16 dollar loss per trade. As we all look at the value we try to give it meaning. What is a 16 dollar loss per trade? What does it mean. To trader666 it means PVT trading is a failure. My consluions about this and other aspects of his testing is that he is testing something other than PVT trading. He doesn't feel he used the S&P 500 overr a period of time to do the test. If he used AAPL, IBM or GOOGLE, his test is not appropriate since he is NOY using an appropriate universe. PVT uses a selected universe. He siad he was testing a paper I authored and using any stock was okay since there were no restrictions. He is correct about the papaer,;there are never going to be any restrictions since the paper is a principle oriented paper.
What is important for reades is to determine if they can identify with trader666. If you can then it is easy for you to reason through NOT thinking about using PVT. We try to filter people way from using PVT if there is little possibility of them having success. Think about whether you feel trading AAPL, IBM and GOOGLE is reasonable. If it is then PVT trading is not for you.
Doing 100 turns a year @ 10% a turn is the goal of PVT trading.
Trader666 does X turns a year @ y% a turn. If you can find X and Y somewhere fill in the numbers in the compound interest formula. My opinion is that Trader666 has a lower compounding result than we do. In my opinion, he feels you and he can't do 100 turns a year @ 10% a turn. I believe he can't as well. I believe others are able to when they use PVT trading.
First you wrote:
And then when I posted a chart showing this was NOT true, you backtracked:
And then when I posted a chart showing this was NOT true, you backtracked:
And oh BTW... about the two "cycles" that you annotated... NEITHER fit the volume criteria you explained in detail a few posts ago. NOT EVEN CLOSE. So you would have MISSED BOTH moves (unless of course you want to make up new criteria in hindsight, like you draw your trendlines in hindsight).
Not true. When I tested your "rockets" I did do the fundamental screening... using PAST fundamental criteria.
When I tested your P,V relation I used 1000 stocks of the SP1500. I've also tested it with all 1500 stocks but the results didn't improve.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1936900#post1936900
When I tested your P,V relation I used 1000 stocks of the SP1500. I've also tested it with all 1500 stocks but the results didn't improve.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1936900#post1936900
Ever? BTW clueless one... NTRS is an SP500 stock! Shows how much (little) you know.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...00/2,3,2,2,00,6,29,2008,78,2,3,0,0,0,0,0.html
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...00/2,3,2,2,00,6,29,2008,78,2,3,0,0,0,0,0.html