Bidu Bidu Bidu

Iceman! ... i have guts now... i just hope its not foolishness, though.


I have this intense desire to get back my 300 I lost before plus my 100 for towing today... so I need to make 10% of 4,000... I know I'm crazy..I prayed about it and just want to break even from my stupidity... even though I got towed because my space was taken.. I filed with the BBB so let's assume that works itself out.. I still want to at least break even from my negative trading for 300 or so dollars last time I went in on SOHU too late. I don't want to go in on BIDU too late tomorrow, even though it may hit 145-150 before earnings... "may" being the operative word. What do you recommend bro? Should I wait it out... I trust your intuition on stocks a lot... and wouldn't blame you if you steered me wrong.. were only human. I just wanna get in on something good. I would likely blame myself, though. I just want to get something right.


so tired of losing right now... maybe I need to wait because I seriously feel drained. I'm taking 18 credit hours right now and a senior in college.. plus doing my internship. non trad student though (25). Took a few years off to work overseas teaching English. To be honest I like less risky scenarios. My gut told me to hit BIDU at 120 on Friday... but I hesitated and decided to focus on school. I just want to get that 300 back so bad, and I can't get a job with my schedule. I think I might need a therapist or go Buddhist b/c it seems like I have some serious attachment to money lost frivolously. If my radiator hose breaks and I have to shell out 200 it's no big deal to me, but if I lose 100 on towing that isn't my fault I freak out... or if I lose 300 on trading that was done foolishly I get depressed. Lol, long rant man. The only one I feel comfortable talking to right now if my girl in Asia and she doesn't understand anything about stocks or budgeting or investing. I was gonna delete this all lol, but ehh what the heck.. I'll send it. Here it is.

*I realize good grades are worth my entire portfolio X10 so maybe I need to focus my priorities right.. I don't want to self-sabotage*
 
wow, those paragraphs looks like a jumbled mess on retrospect,

was up pretty late that night, anyways..

potentially going into BIDU in the morning. 128 is low enough

of an entry point for me. I just hate to risk it all on earnings.

Could fall like NFLX and AMZN if the earnings aren't met, but

I think they will be met because Google far exceeded earnings. Then

again,China's economy growth is now 6-8% instead of 9+% annually..

CLF is also looking good for me but I am less certain about their

earnings. They aren't as dependent on Europe as their rivals.

So I might go all in on BIDU or split it 50/50 between BIDU and CLF.
 
should i get into BIDU this morning before earnings? I know it's a 50/50 gamble. If they exceed earnings, it will go up right? but if not...
 
Quote from spiritearth:

should i get into BIDU this morning before earnings? I know it's a 50/50 gamble. If they exceed earnings, it will go up right? but if not...
More...

Stocks go up and down... don't need a high school degree to know that. Every stock has a risk; chinese stocks have more risk. If you want a sure thing, don't buy stocks...

I would never play these stocks with the amount of capital you have available. Did you see SINA today. 92-79-84--- the other day, almost the same thing... crazy! At least BIDU is not AS crazy. I tried to enter December calls on BIDU but did not catch it when it sold off.
 
if you want to gamble for your money back spirit, take the biggest gainer and or looser of the day ( preferably in excess of 30% move ) , pick the ones that are more speculation or potentially exaggerated, and buy/sell against the move e.o.d for the next days retrace. back test that and you'll be surprised, still very high risk regardless though.
this market is volatile, either dive in , or just watch. in my humble opinion.
 
for me, might be worth buying a put and a call.. probably December; then converting into a spread favoring the direction it moves post-earnings. IF I was buying (shorting) stock I would wait until I saw how the market "reacted" to earnings and guidance.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/302...ors-should-be-cautious-ahead-of-3q11-earnings



Baidu: History Shows Investors Should Be Cautious Ahead Of 3Q11 Earnings

Chinese Internet search bellwether Baidu (BIDU) will report 3Q11 earnings on October 27, after the market closes. Historical patterns suggest investors should be cautious on Baidu shares ahead of the 3Q11 earnings release.

First, Baidu has reported Q3 earnings six times since its IPO. For two out of these six quarters, Baidu shares rose on the next trading day following Q3 earnings releases (green columns in Chart 1), representing a 33% "winning percentage." By comparison, for 16 out of Baidu's total 25 quarterly reports, Baidu shares rose on the trading day following the releases, representing a 64% winning percentage (Chart 1). Historically, Q3 has been Baidu's worst quarter in terms of next-day performance (Chart 1), with an average price change of -5.3% on the day following Q3 earnings releases.

Second, Baidu has released quarterly revenue guidance six times since its IPO. For five out of these six quarters, Baidu's actual revenue beat the midpoint of guidance range (Chart 2), representing a 83% winning percentage. On average, Baidu has beat guidance midpoint by 3.9% historically. On average, Baidu has beat guidance midpoint by 5.3% in Q1 reports, 3.9% in Q2, 2.8% in Q3, and 3.8% in Q4. This shows Q3 has been the worst quarter in a year in terms of the magnitude of the beat (Table 1).

These patterns show that statistically it has been a bad idea to buy Baidu shares ahead of Q3 earnings releases. My explanation for the patterns is: Due to seasonality, Q2 has been the strongest quarter in terms of Baidu's quarter-over-quarter revenue growth. Impressed by strong Q2 results, investors increased their expectations for Q3, the following quarter. Sometimes such increases were excessive, causing earnings disappointments. It is certainly possible for Baidu's 3Q11 results to surprise the market on the upside, like it did in 3Q10. However, statistically, it makes sense to take a cautious stance before Baidu reports 3Q11 earnings.
 
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