No way imo,and its never happened before.But we'll see.
Biden’s job approval takes nosedive
- Thread starter UsualName
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No way imo,and its never happened before.But we'll see.
You shouldn't change what you know is correct based on the candidate you hope to win
"Trump can win with like a 46% approval rating but a democrat can’t without 50%."
2024 circumstances are nearly identical to 2020 with the candidates reversed,but you were singing a different tune when Trump had the horrendous poll numbers.
"Currently, Trump has the lowest approval rating and highest disapproval rating in history. Joe Biden is beating Trump in every poll and by larger margins than Clinton ever had. He barely won last time by 80,000 votes.
This is not a rhetorical question, how can he win?"
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"Currently, Biden has the lowest approval rating and highest disapproval rating in history. Trump is beating Biden in nearly every poll. He barely won last time by 43,000 votes.
This is not a rhetorical question, how can he win?"
Thats quite the optimism when you previously said a Dem needs a 50% approval to win and any republican can win while losing the popular vote by 5 million.
So what I would tell you is that history repeats itself until it doesn’t. These past midterms showed democrats over performing while taking in less of the popular vote than Republicans.
Thank you for me reminding me of my analysis from 3 years ago. All of those factors were true then and I hope I am looking at this election with the same sobriety as I did then.
The current conditions are very different than then and I do expect Biden’s polling against Trump to rebound in the next month or so. We are in a super strong economy and generally that is what matters most.
Dems lost the popular vote.Im sure you know what happens if a Democrat Presidential nominee losses the popular vote.
Doesn't seem like it as you are singing a completely different tune with Biden having even worse approval ratings than Trump.
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What matters most on the economy is what voters think of it.
Also the economy does not matter most.The economy was good in 2000 and 2016 and Progs and Blacks didn't give a shit and stayed home or voted Green Party rather than vote for a centrist democrat.They would have stayed home in 2020 too if Biden hadn't promised police reform,medicaid option for all,free state college,student loan forgiveness,immigration reform,higher taxes on the rich,15.00 minimum wage,no oil drilling etc.Biden cant play that card again in 2024.
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The last 3 times the democrat won the presidency they needed 51% of the popular vote to win.Gore,Kerry and Hillary each got 48%.
No way in hell is Biden getting 51% of the vote with a double digit negative approval,an approval rating 20 points lower than Obama and Clinton with Democrats,an approval rating 40 points lower than Obama and Clinton with Blacks and West and Stein polling around 5% (The Green Party polled less than 1% in 2016 and 2020)