I don't give The GOP a huge edge,but nearly all at least 51%.Im making my final prediction 6 months before the election based on Biden's approval rating mostly.Since polling began no president has won reelection with a disapproval rating higher than approval rating 6 months before the election.Trump sucks but nearly all of the people who voted for him in 2020 will vote for him in 2024.Many people who voted for Biden in 2020 will not vote for him in 2024.They wont be voting for Trump,most will just stay home and that means defeat for a democrat.
The candidates who won in 2022 in the crucial swing states were candidates who are considered more progressive than Biden.While not as progressive as Id like Id vote for Fetterman,Kelly,Warnock,Whitmer etc.