Biden Has 13-Point Lead Over Trump As President's Job Approval Slides

maximumpossiblesuffering said:
I feel Joe lost a couple of steps intellectually over the last few years, probably due to aging. I predicted a few months ago Joe would beat Trump in a debate until I saw Joe speak soon after.

If Kamala won the nomination and was able to break things down well, she might be able to badly scald Trump in their first debate. Yes, a couple of long shot “ifs”, but I have to question if Joe can go the distance versus Trump and whether swing voters and other parts of the Democratic base would be excited enough to go out and vote for Biden.
More...


I agree it does look like Joe lost a few steps.I said earlier in this thread he did not look spectacular which was my way of saying it nicely.

Kamalas losing black voters,which is her only chance at the nomination.The more her record of serving the racist US justice system is brought up like Gabbard did at the debates the worse she will probably do with black voters.

Joe does look tired but hes keeping his lead over Trump and the democrat primary field.I don't think democrats have to be that excited over Joe,getting Trump out brings enough excitement.Dems didn't come out enough to give Obama The House but they did come out enough to take The House from Trump in 2018.Biden will very likely pick a black VP which will help a lot with getting black voters to the polls imo
 
Last edited:
Here4money said:
"the tragic events in Houston today and also in Michigan the day before." Although the politician later corrected his mistake, he seemed to be confusing Houston, which is also in Texas, with El Paso and mixing up Ohio with its fellow midwestern state of Michigan.
More...

Ah, yeah - that's an ouch. I still like Biden better than Trump, though. On a human being level.
 
Here4money said:
"the tragic events in Houston today and also in Michigan the day before." Although the politician later corrected his mistake, he seemed to be confusing Houston, which is also in Texas, with El Paso and mixing up Ohio with its fellow midwestern state of Michigan.
More...


It’s a nice touch disconnecting Biden’s name from the gaff, “the politician” later corrected his mistake.
 
AAAintheBeltway said:
No doubt you admire how he put himself out for his son to get him out of a jam in Ukraine and then scoring 1.5 bill from the chinese. Morally, he is no different than Hillary Clinton. One rule for them, another for everyone else.
More...

Yes, lets cherry pick individual stats so we can say one person is worse or better than another when all of them have fleas.
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ump-should-worry-about-his-disapproval-rating


Trump Should Worry About His Disapproval Rating


The president’s numbers are the worst in the polling era. That doesn’t bode well for his reelection.

Time for a check-in on President Donald Trump’s approval rating, and what it says about his reelection prospects.

Trump remains unpopular. The FiveThirtyEight poll tracker estimates he’s at 42.3% approval and 53.2% disapproval. The historical comparison is as bad as ever: Of the 11 polling-era presidents through 929 days in office (Gerald Ford didn’t serve this long), he’s second-worst, beating only Jimmy Carter – and his disapproval just dropped behind Carter’s once again, making him dead last on that score.

It’s theoretically possible that an incumbent with a 42% approval rating could be reelected. Perhaps the electorate will be disproportionately drawn from those who like Trump. Perhaps there’s a polling error in his favor. Maybe an unusually high number of people who think he’s doing a bad job will vote for him anyway. After all, lots of voters picked Trump in 2016 even though they didn’t like him. And maybe he gets lucky again with the Electoral College.

That’s a lot of maybes, though, and none of them are guaranteed to help Trump. In fact, some of them could easily leave him doing worse than his polling suggests.

Remember, too, that it’s August 2019 and not October 2020. Trump is actually only a bit behind where Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama were at the equivalent points in their first terms. By Election Day, Obama had rebounded to about 50% and Reagan was above 55%. It can work in the other direction as well: In August 1991, George H.W. Bush was still at nearly 70% approval after the Gulf War until a recession brought him low. Or both ways! Carter at this point went from 30% up to 55% long enough to win re-nomination, and then all the way back down.

In other words, there’s plenty of time for the president to improve – or to collapse further.

What’s harder to know is whether opinion is unusually rigid for this president. Trump has spent his presidency in an abnormally narrow range of public opinion, especially since May 2018. It seems possible that he could revisit his 2017 lows, when he fell to around 37%. Since his brief (and unimpressive) honeymoon, his peak has been 43.1% approval. Could that be close to a hard cap? There’s no way to know. But it’s difficult to imagine what events could significantly boost his popularity at this point.

If I were in the Trump campaign, what would really worry me are the president’s persistently high disapproval scores. Again, since that brief honeymoon, his disapproval rating has been above 50% throughout his term. In fact, he’s spent about as much time over 50% – after just two and a half years – as all of the other 11 polling-era presidents did in their first four years combined. There’s simply no record of any president with those figures recovering. And remember: It’s one thing to dislike a politician, but it’s another to think he’s doing a poor job as president – and the latter is usually a good predictor of vote choice.

In short, it seems possible that more than half the nation has already reached a tentative conclusion against Trump. And if they have, it’s not at all clear what he could do to win many of them back.


 
https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black...-trump-and-the-state-by-state-approval-polls/


Not in a good place: Trump and the state-by-state approval polls
By Eric Black | 08:27 am

If the 2020 election is an up-or-down referendum on whether Americans want four more years of Donald Trump as president, he has little chance whatsoever of winning re-election.

Of course, his national approval rating has been locked in the low 40s (or occasionally the high 30s) during most of his term. But the Electoral College is a state-by-state affair. I base my strong statement above on state-by-state approval polls, just released by Morning Consult, compared to the results of the 2016 election in those states.

The overall impression these results give is consistent with what most reputable pollsters are finding. Nothing magical about this one poll, except that Morning Consult’s online polling technique enables it to get fresh state-by-state results every month or so at a reasonable cost. The latest numbers from each state, discussed below, are from July.


Trump currently has an under-water approval rating (meaning not just that his approval number is below 50 percent, but that he has more disapprovers than approvers, disregarding those who had no opinion) in in enough states to cost Trump re-election by a healthy margin. He has a net negative approval rating in more than enough states to support my opening statement, and he is way under water in many of them.

Let’s get some important caveats out of the way, before I give you the numbers. Some people who disapprove of Trump will vote for him anyway, if he can convince them that his opponent would be even worse. He has kind of a knack for that. Some will vote for minor candidates, and those votes aren’t reflected in this analysis (but, of course some of those third-party voters might also prefer Trump to his Democratic opponent, so that one cuts both ways).

Turnout is another complication. Then there’s cheating, and intentional disfranchisement of eligible voters through various means at which Republicans demonstrated in 2016 they are good and are willing to employ.

But I stand behind my first sentence above: If the election is a referendum on whether people want four more years of Donald Trump (and elections involving an incumbent president are said to be heavily influenced by that logic), he’s not in a good place, based on these state-by-state Morning Consult poll numbers, as linked above and specified below.

Let’s get Minnesota out of the way. Although Trump didn’t carry Minnesota in 2016, Hillary Clinton carried it by just a 1.5 percent margin of the popular vote. The latest Morning Consult poll (which is consistent with most other polls of Trump’s approval in Minnesota) shows him below water (more disapprovers than approvers) by 14 percentage points. Fourteen points. I know people talk about Minnesota as a possible Trump pickup, based mostly on how close he came in 2016 (although when they make that argument they tend to disregard Democrats’ very strong showing up and down the ballot in the 2018 midterm). I don’t call them dumb. I can’t be sure they’re wrong. But Trump’s net-14-percent negative approval rating will be hard to overcome.

That’s the only state I’ll mention in this piece that Trump lost in 2016. (I do so for the obvious reason that I and most MinnPost readers live here.) The rest will all be states Trump carried.

Let’s do the three famous “blue wall” states that Trump carried, without which he would not have won his electoral college majority in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and our neighbor, Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania: Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 0.8 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania. His current Morning Consult approval rating there: Trump is eight points under water. Eight percent higher disapproval than approval.

In Michigan, it’s worse for Trump. He carried Michigan by just 0.23 percentage points. He’s currently 11 points under water in approval among Michiganders, according to Morning Consult. Eleven points. That’s a lot of people he has to convince that he’s the lesser of two evils.


Wisconsin. Still worse for Trump. Carried it by 0.75 percentage points. Under water by 14 points. Fourteen points under water.

If Trump carried all the rest of the states he carried in 2016, but lost those three, he would lose the electoral vote. But they aren’t the only states he carried in which he has an under-water approval rating.

Arizona. Trump carried by 3.5 percent margin. Current approval seven points under water.

Iowa: Trump carried by 9.5 points (!!!). Current Morning Consult approval: 11 points (!!!) under water.

And lastly, one that Trump carried narrowly, and is now under water approval-rating-wise, but just barely:

North Carolina: Trump carried by 2.65 points. Current approval: One point under.

I’m certainly not putting North Carolina in the bag for whomever the Democrats end up nominating. I’m not putting any of the states mentioned above in the bag. Nothing is in the bag. The election will not be an up or down vote on Trump. It will be a choice between Trump and a specific Democrat.

Part of Trump’s dark genius is to demonize whomever it is to his advantage to demonize. He will assign an insult nickname. He will mock their appearance. He will lie. He will frighten. He might be able to get some people who disapprove of him to vote for him as the lesser evil. He might get some who would never vote for him to stay home by convincing them that the alternative is no better. He might lose both the popular and the electoral vote and refuse to leave office, claiming the vote was rigged. I’m just saying, based on current polling, he’s in a lot of trouble in a lot of states he needs to carry.
 
Tony Stark said:
https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black...-trump-and-the-state-by-state-approval-polls/


Not in a good place: Trump and the state-by-state approval polls
By Eric Black | 08:27 am

If the 2020 election is an up-or-down referendum on whether Americans want four more years of Donald Trump as president, he has little chance whatsoever of winning re-election.

Of course, his national approval rating has been locked in the low 40s (or occasionally the high 30s) during most of his term. But the Electoral College is a state-by-state affair. I base my strong statement above on state-by-state approval polls, just released by Morning Consult, compared to the results of the 2016 election in those states.

The overall impression these results give is consistent with what most reputable pollsters are finding. Nothing magical about this one poll, except that Morning Consult’s online polling technique enables it to get fresh state-by-state results every month or so at a reasonable cost. The latest numbers from each state, discussed below, are from July.


Trump currently has an under-water approval rating (meaning not just that his approval number is below 50 percent, but that he has more disapprovers than approvers, disregarding those who had no opinion) in in enough states to cost Trump re-election by a healthy margin. He has a net negative approval rating in more than enough states to support my opening statement, and he is way under water in many of them.

Let’s get some important caveats out of the way, before I give you the numbers. Some people who disapprove of Trump will vote for him anyway, if he can convince them that his opponent would be even worse. He has kind of a knack for that. Some will vote for minor candidates, and those votes aren’t reflected in this analysis (but, of course some of those third-party voters might also prefer Trump to his Democratic opponent, so that one cuts both ways).

Turnout is another complication. Then there’s cheating, and intentional disfranchisement of eligible voters through various means at which Republicans demonstrated in 2016 they are good and are willing to employ.

But I stand behind my first sentence above: If the election is a referendum on whether people want four more years of Donald Trump (and elections involving an incumbent president are said to be heavily influenced by that logic), he’s not in a good place, based on these state-by-state Morning Consult poll numbers, as linked above and specified below.

Let’s get Minnesota out of the way. Although Trump didn’t carry Minnesota in 2016, Hillary Clinton carried it by just a 1.5 percent margin of the popular vote. The latest Morning Consult poll (which is consistent with most other polls of Trump’s approval in Minnesota) shows him below water (more disapprovers than approvers) by 14 percentage points. Fourteen points. I know people talk about Minnesota as a possible Trump pickup, based mostly on how close he came in 2016 (although when they make that argument they tend to disregard Democrats’ very strong showing up and down the ballot in the 2018 midterm). I don’t call them dumb. I can’t be sure they’re wrong. But Trump’s net-14-percent negative approval rating will be hard to overcome.

That’s the only state I’ll mention in this piece that Trump lost in 2016. (I do so for the obvious reason that I and most MinnPost readers live here.) The rest will all be states Trump carried.

Let’s do the three famous “blue wall” states that Trump carried, without which he would not have won his electoral college majority in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and our neighbor, Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania: Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 0.8 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania. His current Morning Consult approval rating there: Trump is eight points under water. Eight percent higher disapproval than approval.

In Michigan, it’s worse for Trump. He carried Michigan by just 0.23 percentage points. He’s currently 11 points under water in approval among Michiganders, according to Morning Consult. Eleven points. That’s a lot of people he has to convince that he’s the lesser of two evils.


Wisconsin. Still worse for Trump. Carried it by 0.75 percentage points. Under water by 14 points. Fourteen points under water.

If Trump carried all the rest of the states he carried in 2016, but lost those three, he would lose the electoral vote. But they aren’t the only states he carried in which he has an under-water approval rating.

Arizona. Trump carried by 3.5 percent margin. Current approval seven points under water.

Iowa: Trump carried by 9.5 points (!!!). Current Morning Consult approval: 11 points (!!!) under water.

And lastly, one that Trump carried narrowly, and is now under water approval-rating-wise, but just barely:

North Carolina: Trump carried by 2.65 points. Current approval: One point under.

I’m certainly not putting North Carolina in the bag for whomever the Democrats end up nominating. I’m not putting any of the states mentioned above in the bag. Nothing is in the bag. The election will not be an up or down vote on Trump. It will be a choice between Trump and a specific Democrat.

Part of Trump’s dark genius is to demonize whomever it is to his advantage to demonize. He will assign an insult nickname. He will mock their appearance. He will lie. He will frighten. He might be able to get some people who disapprove of him to vote for him as the lesser evil. He might get some who would never vote for him to stay home by convincing them that the alternative is no better. He might lose both the popular and the electoral vote and refuse to leave office, claiming the vote was rigged. I’m just saying, based on current polling, he’s in a lot of trouble in a lot of states he needs to carry.
More...

After Trump refuses to leave office, he will send all of his opponents to concentration camps by train to held for the ovens and replace the Americans on Mount Rushmore with famous Nazis. Sound about Reich? Did I leave anything out?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top