Noob. This isn’t a good breakdown of the current state of the electorate but if you can do an analysis you will notice the share of white eligible voters as a percentage is declining while AA voters are neutral, Hispanic and Asian are both growing. Making republicans more reliant in getting a higher and higher turnout among white voters, especially male voters. This is the battle that drives messaging and turnout. Paying attention to these cohorts enthusiasm to vote is the key. But when they “equal” out (it’s not actually equally because AA has to be higher, they neutralize each other. Hispanic voters gains have split to republicans and Asian voters aren’t enough to swing. So the deciding factor becomes white women, in the suburbs. SWW are the swingiest voting group in America. When the election is tight like that you’ll see the messaging swing to crime and education. However, this whole overturning of Roe sort of throws that old playbook out of the window.
https://www.pewresearch.org/2020/09...and-ethnic-composition-of-the-u-s-electorate/