Here’s the way I look at the election. Trump won 3 states that put him over the top by 80,000 votes combined. To me which way these states go will determine the election. So:
Will Trump get more votes than he did in the last election in these states ?
Will Biden get more votes than Clinton got in the last election in these states?
And it does not look good for Trump. He has lost ground with women and most recently senior voters. While Biden is benefiting from motivated black voters.
I think Joe wins PA,MI and WI but they wont decide the election imo.I dont think Trump holds on to all the other states he won in 2016.
At minimum Biden matchs one of Obamas EC results imo