I don't deny your original point, it would have an impact. I just am not sure he would do it.
Biden 2020
- Thread starter wildchild
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I doubt that.
Abrams is the leading candidate for the VP slot but she may need some encouragement to join the ticket, any ticket.
Besides Iowa and New Hampshire don’t matter on the Dem side like they used to. While Warren has gone up in both IA and NH recently, Biden has gone up in SC and his support hasn’t moved in IA and NH.
If Abrams were to join a candidate before the convention, it wouldn’t be until after the SEC primary. Even so, she still probably won’t because we are going to a brokered convention most likely anyway.
Biden would do it in a heartbeat. Abrams would almost assure him the nomination.
Warren has not won the nomination yet.She is gaining among black voters but I'm still doubtful she gets the majority of them.
Certainly won't be Kamala Harris.
Little joke there.
She burned that bridge bigly.
Oh, wait. She is not African American either.
My bad.
I'm not sure he would do it before the next debate which is what Vanzandt was saying would help Joe Biden. I am not denying the power and impact it would have. I am just saying I don't think Joe will do it before the debate.
If Joe wins the primary then he MUST pick a black VP. I have agreed with that for awhile now. There are even old posts of mine saying Biden-Harris would be the 2020 ticket. That was before she attacked Joe and threw her campaign away.
“I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” Biden recalled telling Poroshenko.
“Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations event, insisting that President Obama was in on the threat.
cued to the quote, see below
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I agree IA and NH aren't as important as they used to be, but I have a reason for saying he should do it before those primaries. Its not necessarily about winning those two states, its about the optics that would result if he loses them and then brings her in before SC. It just looks too cheesy. "I'm losing so lets bring in a female African-American. Horrible optics, reeks of desperation. So with that in mind, I think he needs to secure her commitment as soon as feasibly possible. That would be best.
Its obvious it's not going to happen before next week's debate, that was just me exercising some literary flare, over-exaggerating the urgency for Joe to nip this down-trend in the bud.
I am not on board with this plan to find Joe a clean, articulate black to win South Carolina at all.
But I will just tell ya why that dog don't hunt for me yet and then you can slap me around as needed.
The polls show that Joe already has 50% of the black vote support in South Carolina - a full 40 points plus ahead of his closest competitor, warren or sanders. So why the fuck are we trying to put more bondo and duct tape on Joe to get the black vote in South Carolina when he has so many other gaps and deficiencies that need to be addressed for the long haul. Can someone splain that to me?
Joe's main distinquishing factor is that he purports to be a moderate compared to the progressives (the notion that joe is a moderate is absurd but I will leave that alone for now). So in order to get him saddled up with some melanin on the ticket you are going to add a flaming, flaming progressive to the ticket just to win a state that he is already scheduled to win unless he dies? Then he has to campaign from state to state with her while she tries to outprogressive the progressives? Careful wit dat.
Where the honky pundits are going wrong is in thinking that blacks just want a black so put a black on the ticket. But the fact that they are already going for one of the whitest, honkiest, establishmentist guys in the country- Joe Biden- confirms that it is more than being black. Many/most blacks are not all that progressive. They are looking for someone who knows the Martin Luther King days and values that journey- whether white or black- and not someone who wants to spend most of their time fighting for queers and bathroom-confused people. That is not their view of black activism. Stacy Abrams takes them too far in that direction, and as I have said, Joe already has fantastic numbers with blacks, so why mess that up?
Last but not least, is the fact that the white honky pundits keep pounding on this blackness thing to make their case that that must be the driving factor among south carolinian blacks. DON'T BE SO FRIGGING SURE THOUGH. The polls show that the driving factor is that they want somone who can beat Donald Trump and that is why they are hanging with Joe. So if Joe wants to win in South Carolina or at least take the lion's share he needs to show that he is the one who can beat Trump while just maintaining his current support there.
We know that Obama had the advantage of being black, but nevertheless, he was way behind in South Carolina versus Hillary in 2008, until he/Obama racked up good numbers in New Hampshire and Iowa to show that he could do the deed. Then South Carolina started turning toward him. I have conceded that the analogy is not perfect because Obama had the melanin advantage......nevertheless...the South Carolinians were looking for a winner.
Having said all that. I caution Biden bigtime against excessively tinkering with South Carolina to cure the "problem" that he is already winning there and instead concentrate on winning the early states and running a national campaign. Adding Stacy Abrams for the win in South Carolina means he has to live with her in the rest of the campaign. Not something I would want to do.
Unfortunately, I think it is already a bit too late for Joe. He is not doing well in the early states, with the plan that he has South Carolina in his hip pocket and will make up for it on Super Tuesday with the other states. Complete back-assward of how his campaign should be run. You don't show that you are the one who can beat trump by losing in the early states. Maybe some super charismatic type can reverse it but we are talking about Joe here so let's get real. He is already bleeding quite badly.
Blacks in South Carolina should be scared shiiteless that if they vote for Joe that Donald Trump will be in the white house again. They are not scared about that yet and wont be until Joe shits the bed in New Hampshire and Iowa. Then there is going to be a whole lot of recalibrating going on.
Methinks.
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Joe Biden is currently doing well in the early states. He currently is in the lead in the first four states with the exception of Iowa.
A lot of outside discussion around the black vote here without much inside knowledge. It is true AA voters are among the most moderate voters but AA women dominate the cohort and exercise an outsized impact on the overall selection of the democratic nominee. Think of them as having the same impact as white men on the Republican nominee.
Second, it’s already a discussion among dem voters that Iowa and New Hampshire are not a good test of the democrats. AA women want their say independently.
Now this is not saying Warren won’t win Iowa or New Hampshire but Biden can win those too, and Nevada.
Warren runs into big, Big problems as she runs into the South and into the democrats most important voter. She does not do well there. She has some months to go but right now she has a big mountain to climb.