Biden 2020

[Tony Stark]

I don't have a clue what she is going to do for the black vote.

How is she going to get the nomination without the black vote is the question.Since 1992 no one has gotten the democrat nomination without the majority of the black vote.In 2008 Hillary had the majority of the white,Hispanic,Jewish and female vote but still lost the nomination to Obama.Maybe Warren can find a win over blacks or win without their votes but I don't see it.

 

[UsualName]

How is she going to get the nomination without the black is the question.Since 1992 no one has gotten the democrat nomination without the majority of the black vote.In 2008 Hillary had the majority of the white,Hispanic,Jewish and female vote but still lost the nomination to Obama.Maybe Warren can find a win over blacks or win without their votes but I don't see it.

I moseyed over to 538s state polls earlier and looked at SC and it’s still a blowout. Warren is doing well in Iowa and Bernie in NH but it’s still basically a toss up but SC is still polling blowout levels for Biden.

 

[UsualName]

Emerson poll is out and Biden is still polling 30s with Warren at like 15 and Sanders at 24 or so.

You know there’s a lot of talk about Warren but she is solidly in 3rd place right now, Sanders is the candidate in striking distance and as I stated earlier Warren supports are sanders supporters but sanders supporters are Biden supporters.

Warren is drawing from a thin well right now.

 

[Tony Stark]

I moseyed over to 538s state polls earlier and looked at SC and it’s still a blowout. Warren is doing well in Iowa and Bernie in NH but it’s still basically a toss up but SC is still polling blowout levels for Biden.

I remember Hillary was doing well until blacks started voting in states with high black populations

 

[UsualName]

I remember Hillary was doing well until blacks started voting in states with high black populations

Yes, in 2008. This Iowa NH stuff is really for Republicans now of days. For democrats the real show starts when SC votes.

 

[Tony Stark]

Emerson poll is out and Biden is still polling 30s with Warren at like 15 and Sanders at 24 or so.

You know there’s a lot of talk about Warren but she is solidly in 3rd place right now, Sanders is the candidate in striking distance and as I stated earlier Warren supports are sanders supporters but sanders supporters are Biden supporters.

Warren is drawing from a thin well right now.

I think Sanders probably gets Bidens voters if Biden blows up

 

[UsualName]

I think Sanders probably gets Bidens voters if Biden blows up

Scroll about half way down, they have a pretty interesting interactive on second choices:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

 

[Tony Stark]

Yes, in 2008. This Iowa NH stuff is really for Republicans now of days. For democrats the real show starts when SC votes.

True.Hillary and Sanders were about even until black voters started voting

 

[Tony Stark]

Scroll about half way down, they have a pretty interesting interactive on second choices:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Interesting.That was my opinion before reading that.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Yes, in 2008. This Iowa NH stuff is really for Republicans now of days. For democrats the real show starts when SC votes.

It's going to be more intense and compressed this time around because the most delegates are in California and this is the first time that California has moved up to join the other states on Super Tuesday.

So yeh, the show starts in SC which is the middle of Feb but pretty much is over two weeks later . give or take on those dates. Of course Iowa and NH still count bigly because of the optics it creates. Always good to not do poorly there. Skating by works but you better have a plan to do start doing well elsewhere right off.

So Super Tuesday will come up fast, and what do we/the dems get for it? Closure? Nope, most likely just plunges them into a brokered convention where gawd only knows what will come out of it. It's gonna be fugly if I am wrong and Joe wins, and it's gonna be fugly if Warren wins, or if anyone else wins. Gonna be a real Fuglyfest

"I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."
- Will Rogers