That looks delicious. Pass the orange sauce.
Beware - Late By Historical Standards, But Bound To Arrive
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Arabs are looking to destablize Europe and the French Elections are in play. We may see a BLACK SWAN in Paris.
The BLACK SWAN will propbably be sighted outside the US.
However, I wouldn't go short until the SWAN is sighted and the first wave of reactions come. There will be plenty of time to make money on the retreat.
E
The BLACK SWAN will propbably be sighted outside the US.
However, I wouldn't go short until the SWAN is sighted and the first wave of reactions come. There will be plenty of time to make money on the retreat.
E
With the myriad of global markets and products I'd imagine a 3 sigma event happens somewhere with greater than expected frequency. It may be a Malaysian stock that falls 90% ect...Or California utility rates a few years back.
By definition a "Black Swan" must be a shock event. A 6% down day in the Dow doesn't qualify. Down 22% does.
Many true "Black Swans", market wise, have been to the upside.
To many investors (myself included) a new all time high in the Dow after the backdrop of 2000-2002's plunge is a "Black Swan."
In the summer of 2002 I would have placed the odds of a 1500 SPX in 2007 at 10,000-1.
To yield starved pension fund managers the notion of a 4.75% long bond coupled with $700 gold, $60 crude and record deficits is a "Black Swan."
If Golden State knows off the Mav's in NBA round one, BIG, BIG "Black Swan".
By definition a "Black Swan" must be a shock event. A 6% down day in the Dow doesn't qualify. Down 22% does.
Many true "Black Swans", market wise, have been to the upside.
To many investors (myself included) a new all time high in the Dow after the backdrop of 2000-2002's plunge is a "Black Swan."
In the summer of 2002 I would have placed the odds of a 1500 SPX in 2007 at 10,000-1.
To yield starved pension fund managers the notion of a 4.75% long bond coupled with $700 gold, $60 crude and record deficits is a "Black Swan."
If Golden State knows off the Mav's in NBA round one, BIG, BIG "Black Swan".
Black Swans are, by definition, non-predictable.
If I had to guess, it will be either
1) Energy crisis
2) China or even Asia meltdown
3) Hedge Fund crisis - industry wide
4) Massive geopolitical
It's late. History tells us something is bound to happen sooner rather than later.
If I had to guess, it will be either
1) Energy crisis
2) China or even Asia meltdown
3) Hedge Fund crisis - industry wide
4) Massive geopolitical
It's late. History tells us something is bound to happen sooner rather than later.
Black Swan 1929, 1987, 9/11.
Go buy a lottery ticket, its the same thing.
Go buy a lottery ticket, its the same thing.