Quote from Martinghoul:
But that's the thing, the Irish, the Portuguese and the Spanish seem to be doing the right thing. They aren't the Greeks, they ARE paying the piper, albeit too slowly for you. Why aren't you willing, at least, to give them time to deal with their problems? Moreover, the EuroZone will overhaul the Stability and Growth Pact and some better fiscal discipline might still come out of that. Finally, as demonstrated by the US, all ccy unions need time and crises (sometimes as bad as a civil war) to gel into viable long-term economic entities. This is one such crisis. It may end in the dissolution of the EMU or they might come out of it stronger. I am not as pessimistic as you and I don't see why the process necessarily has to end in failure. At the very least, I am willing to grant them a stay of execution.
As to the US, 100% agree. In some ways the US situation is even worse. However, the US seems to have a sponsor, i.e. China and the rest of the EM world, so it's not clear how that story develops.
The ECB-IMF emergency loan basically saved Europe from Depression. The PIIGS appear to be doing to the right thing with the brief window available. You're right on that. However, talk is cheap and Governments change. The Trillion dollar bailout carries the laggards so the austerity pains aren't felt too deep. The cost of temporarily saving Europe's minor states is further indebtedness of G20 nations that are only marginally more solvent than EU's worst. Printing money doesn't make problems go away. If it were that easy, why not print 50 Trillion and make this whole sovereign-debt/mortgage crisis disappear? When the time comes to bailout a Spain, UK, France or America, the IMF won't have the coin because those major economies are the IMF. So besides the PIIGS, Germany, France, the UK and America have to slash their deficits hard. Or within a few years, they'll be at Greek levels.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not short-euro praying for anarchy. If the PIIGS continue to do the right thing, great, let them be a model to the G7 that really need to get their sh&t together. As we all know, the EU bailout wasn't an altruistic gesture. The G7 arranged it to buy themselves time. Also, when the G7 finally surrender to harsh austerity measures, IMF emergency loans won't be there to soften the blow.
kitco almost got this right 