Betting Pattern like Brexit points to Trump victory
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Just 45 points behind.Thats one of the things I like about you Jem,you're a cup half full kind of guy.
Hitlary Clampdown gave a speech yesterday saying you can't take anything for granted and you have to keep the peddle to the metal to the end. Almost like talking directly to you Stark. You've really been slacking off with only 7% threads started compared to Nitro 38%. Need to get those numbers up...more toward 50%.
Nate Silver's blog five thirty eight gave the Cubs less chance of winning the world series than they do of Trump winning.
Five Thirty Eight ^ | Oct 30, 2016 at 7:53 AM | Rob Arthur
It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.)
Here's the headline from their story:
The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does
LOL
Five Thirty Eight ^ | Oct 30, 2016 at 7:53 AM | Rob Arthur
It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.)
Here's the headline from their story:
The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does
LOL
The polls are tightening in NC and NH. If the Donald can flip those two while holding everything else, the election could be a 269-269 tie.
yes...
and that is presuming the polls have picked the proper turnout model.
I suspect the the risk of error in the turnout models favors a Trump victory.
I doubt hillary is going to get a Democrat plus 6 or 7 turnout.
when you consider she is unlikely to get as many black people to turnout as obama
Trump turned out over a million more voters in the primary and he wrapped it up before she did.
Plus... it seems that in the unweighted random samples that I have seen from the pollsters - there are an even amount or more people identifying as republican.
I just don't see her getting d plus 7 enthusiasm. she is not obama.
and that is presuming the polls have picked the proper turnout model.
I suspect the the risk of error in the turnout models favors a Trump victory.
I doubt hillary is going to get a Democrat plus 6 or 7 turnout.
when you consider she is unlikely to get as many black people to turnout as obama
Trump turned out over a million more voters in the primary and he wrapped it up before she did.
Plus... it seems that in the unweighted random samples that I have seen from the pollsters - there are an even amount or more people identifying as republican.
I just don't see her getting d plus 7 enthusiasm. she is not obama.