Betting on stupid

[Cuddles]

What industries/sectors would you say are favored by the simple minded folk? I have a feeling the prevalence is increasing and don't see it stopping any time soon.

Thinks like casinos, Amway, reality TV, ostentatious pick ups, subprime loans, vices, etc..

I'm semi serious BTW. What would you bet on it the population of dumb kept going up?

 

[vanzandt]

What industries/sectors would you say are favored by the simple minded folk? I have a feeling the prevalence is increasing and don't see it stopping any time soon.

Thinks like casinos, Amway, reality TV, ostentatious pick ups, subprime loans, vices, etc..

I'm semi serious BTW. What would you bet on it the population of dumb kept going up?

FANG
Better to ferret out little known companies that are experiencing YOY double digit growth on the top line that have strong first comer advantages in a high growth niche.

 

[tomorton]

Bearing in mind that over any period of time, 90% of traders are losers I find I usually take the opposite position to what Oanda's clients do - see their sentiment indicator at https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/open-position-ratios.

 

[themickey]

Bearing in mind that over any period of time, 90% of traders are losers I find I usually take the opposite position to what Oanda's clients do - see their sentiment indicator at https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/open-position-ratios.

The opposite Long/Short ratio or the Open Positions ratio?

 

[tomorton]

The opposite Long/Short ratio or the Open Positions ratio?

Just the Long/Short ratios. Most of these trades will be losers, most of those traders are losers.

 

[Cuddles]

Bearing in mind that over any period of time, 90% of traders are losers I find I usually take the opposite position to what Oanda's clients do - see their sentiment indicator at https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/open-position-ratios.

Interesting....I wonder if there's a similar tracker for other instruments?

 

[tomorton]

Interesting....I wonder if there's a similar tracker for other instruments?

You could start a poll on a market you wish to buy into - if the majority of traders (but you need a large sample) are saying "short it", go ahead and buy. At any one time I believe about 80% of active traders are unprofitable, and long run 90+%.

 

[comagnum]

What industries/sectors would you say are favored by the simple minded folk?

Per TD Ameritrade over the last year these were these stocks were bought the most. On the list of 5, the techs made huge gains while T & GE were down big.
This is what the crowd did - in a bull market the herd is smart.


NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 0.49%

The popular semiconductor has now increased from $32 to $223 since the start of 2016, a move of almost 600 percent. The wide adaptation of its chips, from personal computers to self-driving cars, to smart home devices, has made them the clear leader in the space.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd BABA 0.51%

The "Amazon of China" nearly doubled in 2017, going from $89 per share to $176. That was in part due to the continued success of Singles Day, as global sales on the Nov. 11 holiday topped $25 billion for the first time.

Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN 2.23%

Amazon had such a good year that Jeff Bezos became the richest man in the world—twice! The first instance came on July 27 after the stock surged ahead of its Q2 earnings report, and the second came on Oct. 27 after its strong Q3 earnings report.

AT&T Inc T 1.15%

AT&T actually finished 2017 down about 8 percent, but that apparently didn't stop TD Ameritrade clients from buying the stock. Wall Street is anxiously awaiting word on whether the Department of Justice will approve the company's acquisition of Time Warner Inc TWX 0.17% in 2018.

General Electric Company GE 1.37%