Betting on a big move in the SPX in 2 years time

keroppi said:
I want to place a small bet on a big move in the SPX for sometime in 2022.

Say for example, I see the SPX at 5,000 or 1,250 at 2022, is there a play that can make 10x the starting capital?

I plugged in various basic call/put options and call/put option spreads in optionsprofitcalculator.com and can only generate a 4x return. Would love to know if anyone could up with an option strategy to get closer to a 10x return.

Further, does anyone know of a website where you can plug in a figure for an instrument they wish to trade and a price where it will be at a given time, and then the website spits out the different option strategies available to you so you can compare the returns and payoff distributions?
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Ask Destriero for the magic.
 
Robert Morse said:
keroppi-I have a quick question. You did not say that you expected excessive movement from today until 2022, but in 2022. Why do that trade today vs some time in late 2021?
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You are right. I am expecting possible excessive movement from today until 2022, although I want to allow 2 years for my bet.

Do you have any option strategies you can suggest?

Also, anyone with experiences using optionvue for developing option strategies?
 
Not recommending this be used, but here is a test for the 5K case:
------------------
CRITERIA Used: Time?=Now->20200513.0712, term =SPX221216, Symbol= SPX, days=850, uChange=+74.0%, ivChange=+0.0%
Per leg Slippage->0.1 MiniBA spread:50 Commission:1.30 Candidates->5
Target date = 20220910 is on day# 6 of the week (Mon=1...) Database is "xxxx
"
Beware your Target exit date is on a weekend, not during trading!
U= 2730.19, Target U-> 4750.53
ATM IV= 0.24, Target ATM-IV-> (0.28 -> 0.28):(0.28 -> 0.28)
Results of evaluation listed below:
Opra ROR Open Close P0 PT
SPX221216C4300 3438 % 20.10 712.09 20.00 712.19
SPX221216C4200 2740 % 27.80 790.35 27.70 790.45
SPX221216C4100 2698 % 31.30 876.59 31.20 876.69
SPX221216C4000 2407 % 38.60 968.24 38.50 968.34
SPX221216C3900 2108 % 48.10 1062.43 48.00 1062.53
CALL Vertical Spread Width 25
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3500 / 3525 1061 % BUY 2.13 24.69
3775 / 3800 550 % BUY 3.73 24.21
3750 / 3775 504 % BUY 4.03 24.30
3725 / 3750 491 % BUY 4.13 24.40
3700 / 3725 452 % BUY 4.43 24.44
CALL Vertical Spread Width 50
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 3900 710 % BUY 5.93 47.99
3800 / 3850 631 % BUY 6.63 48.44
3750 / 3800 548 % BUY 7.53 48.74
3725 / 3775 517 % BUY 7.93 48.92
3700 / 3750 489 % BUY 8.33 49.07
CALL Vertical Spread Width 75
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 3850 620 % BUY 10.13 72.88
3725 / 3800 542 % BUY 11.43 73.36
3700 / 3775 507 % BUY 12.13 73.59
3675 / 3750 480 % BUY 12.73 73.79
3650 / 3725 447 % BUY 13.53 73.95
CALL Vertical Spread Width 100
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
4100 / 4200 2208 % BUY 3.73 86.01
4000 / 4100 1115 % BUY 7.53 91.42
4200 / 4300 885 % BUY 7.93 78.04
3900 / 4000 866 % BUY 9.73 93.96
3800 / 3900 684 % BUY 12.33 96.65
CALL Vertical Spread Width 125
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 3900 665 % BUY 15.83 121.09
3725 / 3850 585 % BUY 17.83 122.03
3675 / 3800 513 % BUY 20.03 122.75
3650 / 3775 480 % BUY 21.23 123.10
3625 / 3750 453 % BUY 22.33 123.38
CALL Vertical Spread Width 150
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 4000 822 % BUY 15.43 142.18
3750 / 3900 642 % BUY 19.63 145.61
3700 / 3850 566 % BUY 22.03 146.70
3650 / 3800 497 % BUY 24.73 147.54
3625 / 3775 466 % BUY 26.13 147.90
CALL Vertical Spread Width 175
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3725 / 3900 624 % BUY 23.53 170.24
3675 / 3850 549 % BUY 26.43 171.41
3625 / 3800 482 % BUY 29.63 172.34
3600 / 3775 451 % BUY 31.33 172.72
3575 / 3750 426 % BUY 32.93 173.06
CALL Vertical Spread Width 200
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
4000 / 4200 1511 % BUY 11.03 177.66
4100 / 4300 1338 % BUY 11.43 164.28
3900 / 4100 990 % BUY 17.03 185.61
3800 / 4000 774 % BUY 21.83 190.84
3700 / 3900 603 % BUY 27.73 194.91
CALL Vertical Spread Width 225
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 4000 750 % BUY 25.33 215.28
3675 / 3900 584 % BUY 32.13 219.63
3625 / 3850 513 % BUY 36.03 221.01
3575 / 3800 452 % BUY 40.23 222.03
3550 / 3775 424 % BUY 42.43 222.47
CALL Vertical Spread Width 250
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 4100 929 % BUY 22.73 233.82
3750 / 4000 723 % BUY 29.13 239.80
3650 / 3900 564 % BUY 36.83 244.41
3600 / 3850 496 % BUY 41.23 245.82
3550 / 3800 438 % BUY 45.93 246.91
PUT Vertical Spread Width 25
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 3800 500 % SELL 20.87 0.23
3750 / 3775 473 % SELL 20.67 0.23
3725 / 3750 447 % SELL 20.47 0.23
3700 / 3725 413 % SELL 20.17 0.23
3675 / 3700 393 % SELL 19.97 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 50
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 3900 640 % SELL 43.27 0.23
3800 / 3850 579 % SELL 42.67 0.23
3750 / 3800 505 % SELL 41.77 0.23
3725 / 3775 477 % SELL 41.37 0.23
3700 / 3750 445 % SELL 40.87 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 75
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 3850 566 % SELL 63.77 0.23
3725 / 3800 497 % SELL 62.47 0.23
3700 / 3775 465 % SELL 61.77 0.23
3675 / 3750 437 % SELL 61.07 0.23
3650 / 3725 411 % SELL 60.37 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 100
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
4200 / 4300 1503 % SELL 93.77 0.23
4100 / 4200 1320 % SELL 92.97 0.23
4000 / 4100 1005 % SELL 90.97 0.23
3900 / 4000 797 % SELL 88.87 0.23
3800 / 3900 622 % SELL 86.17 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 125
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 3900 604 % SELL 107.27 0.23
3725 / 3850 536 % SELL 105.37 0.23
3675 / 3800 469 % SELL 103.07 0.23
3650 / 3775 442 % SELL 101.97 0.23
3625 / 3750 415 % SELL 100.77 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 150
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 4000 750 % SELL 132.37 0.23
3750 / 3900 586 % SELL 128.17 0.23
3700 / 3850 518 % SELL 125.77 0.23
3650 / 3800 456 % SELL 123.07 0.23
3625 / 3775 429 % SELL 121.67 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 175
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3725 / 3900 569 % SELL 148.87 0.23
3675 / 3850 502 % SELL 145.97 0.23
3625 / 3800 442 % SELL 142.77 0.23
3600 / 3775 417 % SELL 141.17 0.23
3575 / 3750 392 % SELL 139.47 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 200
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
4100 / 4300 1434 % SELL 186.97 0.23
4000 / 4200 1162 % SELL 184.17 0.23
3900 / 4100 903 % SELL 180.07 0.23
3800 / 4000 708 % SELL 175.27 0.23
3700 / 3900 550 % SELL 169.27 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 225
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3775 / 4000 685 % SELL 196.37 0.23
3675 / 3900 533 % SELL 189.47 0.23
3625 / 3850 472 % SELL 185.67 0.23
3575 / 3800 416 % SELL 181.47 0.23
3550 / 3775 393 % SELL 179.37 0.23
PUT Vertical Spread Width 250
Strikes ROR BuySell Open Close
3850 / 4100 845 % SELL 223.57 0.23
3750 / 4000 663 % SELL 217.27 0.23
3650 / 3900 516 % SELL 209.47 0.23
3600 / 3850 457 % SELL 205.17 0.23
3550 / 3800 404 % SELL 200.47 0.23

Summary in ROR order for each type
ROR Type Description Order type
3438 % Long CALL SPX221216C4300 Buy to Open
2208 % Call Spread 100 4100 / 4200 Buy to Open
1511 % Call Spread 200 4000 / 4200 Buy to Open
1503 % Put Spread 100 4200 / 4300 Sell to Open
1434 % Put Spread 200 4100 / 4300 Sell to Open
1061 % Call Spread 25 3500 / 3525 Buy to Open
929 % Call Spread 250 3850 / 4100 Buy to Open
845 % Put Spread 250 3850 / 4100 Sell to Open
822 % Call Spread 150 3850 / 4000 Buy to Open
750 % Call Spread 225 3775 / 4000 Buy to Open
750 % Put Spread 150 3850 / 4000 Sell to Open
710 % Call Spread 50 3850 / 3900 Buy to Open
685 % Put Spread 225 3775 / 4000 Sell to Open
665 % Call Spread 125 3775 / 3900 Buy to Open
640 % Put Spread 50 3850 / 3900 Sell to Open
624 % Call Spread 175 3725 / 3900 Buy to Open
620 % Call Spread 75 3775 / 3850 Buy to Open
604 % Put Spread 125 3775 / 3900 Sell to Open
569 % Put Spread 175 3725 / 3900 Sell to Open
566 % Put Spread 75 3775 / 3850 Sell to Open
500 % Put Spread 25 3775 / 3800 Sell to Open
-------------------------
An example run. Beware, this has not be sanitized (Bid Ask spread allows 50 for this run)
 
SPX options spreads. This spread costs $550 and will pay $10K (18:1) if SPX is above 4100 in 3 years:
upload_2020-5-13_10-38-37.png
 
The Markets on the options are on the quotes he attached..Really wide market on the options,but apx 29 bucks on the short leg..Just add that bsck

Overnight said:
What if you just bought the call, without spreading with selling it? How much would that cost?
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@Overnight: Well, at expiration, the spread is a better return here, unless spx goes above 4500 or higher. The breakeven is a few points above 4000, and at 4100 you get the full 18x return... and not a bad return if you sell early:

upload_2020-5-13_23-10-55.png


But when just buying the 4000 call for $3500, if kept to expiration, to get the same return spx would have to hit ~4650, but you could sell earlier, say in June '21, for a decent return, although still way higher than 4100:

upload_2020-5-13_23-18-24.png


And obviously everything above 4700 is gravy for the lone call.

That's what @stepandfetchit showed with spx going to 4750 (his hypothetical), that buying the 4300 call gave the highest return.


Overnight said:
What if you just bought the call, without spreading with selling it? How much would that cost?
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