Better to Predict...or React?

[cooldude]

imho
you can't predict, you must not predict.
Everytime you do it, you will be the laughing stock of the Market.
The Market is a lady.
She hates your predictions.

But She loves when you anticipate her dancing steps (the famous "price action").
She sees that you know the etiquette.
She will reward you for the courtesy.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from cooldude:

imho
you can't predict, you must not predict.
Everytime you do it, you will be the laughing stock of the Market.
The Market is a lady.
She hates your predictions.

But She loves when you anticipate
(the famous "price action").
She sees that you know the etiquette.
She will reward you for the courtesy.

=============

Right, & thats why i seldom predict;
BOX turtles, polar bears, bulls,& hawks win. Prediction pigs lose.

So let me rephrase one of the few ''predictions'' made here;
high probability you better study more than one sector ,
DAC8555 /bear.
One of these years/decades,TOL may UPTREND again.

Its easy to confuse a high probability with infallibility or predictions;
better & best not to do that.

 

[nononsense]

Better to Predict...or React?
Confusion without end in sight.

Nobody predicts, nobody reacts;
Everybody predicts, everybody reacts.

This discussion will go on endlessly.
Real traders ONLY ACT.
Why do they act as they do? Hard to say.
Few will not base their actions on observation of past history. Few will engage in action without the hope of making a profit.

If you believe in any reasonable approach at all, it is difficult to deny that many REACT to the observation of past market events and DECIDE on action in the HOPE to turn a profit. If you don't want to call this process of reasoned deduction PREDICTING, call it FORESEEING or EXPECTING or weighing in of probabilities or anything similar. It all comes to the same: pedantic semantics popular with losers.

 

[Cheese]

Quote from nononsense:

Better to Predict...or React?
Confusion without end in sight.

Nobody predicts, nobody reacts;
Everybody predicts, everybody reacts.

This discussion will go on endlessly.
Real traders ONLY ACT.
Why do they act as they do? Hard to say.
Few will not base their actions on observation of past history. Few will engage in action without the hope of making a profit.

If you believe in any reasonable approach at all, it is difficult to deny that many REACT to the observation of past market events and DECIDE on action in the HOPE to turn a profit. If you don't want to call this process of reasoned deduction PREDICTING, call it FORESEEING or EXPECTING or weighing in of probabilities or anything similar. It all comes to the same: pedantic semantics popular with losers.

Agree.

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from dac8555:

i will say it, at this moment, i am a bear, a newbie....and i am in cash (due to being stopped out). My current strategy is to try to find weak stocks and short them.

the last 3 weeks have been VERY unsuccessful.

I continue to looks for shorts mainly the the homebuilding sector....But i think my doomsday predections are really hampering my success. The last few weeks homebuilders have rallied, and i have not participated even though i watch them like a hawk.

today for instance i SHOULD have made about $3000 as i saw TOL skyrocket on the FED news...but i am a bear on TOL, i want it to go down.

the question is this:

do you try to predict what will happen (like i predict hombulders around $5 in 2 years) or...do you go with the flow even if it is against your general feeling on things..like homebulders rallying today?

if you predict you had better be able to react when you are wrong. your ability to predict is suspect because your prediction that the homebuilders will be $5 in 2 years is wrong.

 

[losloslos]

"I let the market tell me what I should be doing. Keep in mind, it's always right."
is nonsense

 

[Samson77]

This is my official quote and I want rights to it...

<B>PREPARE TO REACT</B>

 

[TruthTeller]

Quote from dac8555:



the last 3 weeks have been VERY unsuccessful.

No wonder you've been unsuccessful. You're lucky you have your shirt left.

1. As a new trader, you should not short any equities.
2. A bad strategy to short anything going into Nov-Dec, any year.
3. Overall, you should be buying weakness, not shorting it.

 

[RunTrade]

Quote from losloslos:

"I let the market tell me what I should be doing. Keep in mind, it's always right."
is nonsense

agreed! I think alot of the time, people use this phrase as an excuse to poor decisions/performance. Don't get this confused with "going against the market" because that is usually going to get you nothing but headaches. The market can often be wrong, that would be the whole reason for corrections!

 

[Pete3212]

Quote from nononsense:

Better to Predict...or React?

This discussion will go on endlessly.

I will agree with that... I'm sure everyone has an opinion on this, and I'm sure most of them differ. Apples and oranges...