Better February and Beyond

A

AmyInTX

Have never posted on a trading forum before, but I have no local traders to talk to, family and friends who don't understand what I do/am trying to do. And the traders I know from other forums all do momo day trading and think ES is impossible.

I am up/down. Good discipline re: size, but I fall into familiar issues when I'm down and when I'm up.

I have a proprietary signal system that I have back tested as far as I can (but it's not years or anything). It's complicated but also pretty clean, different setups for choppier days and more directional action. Entries, stops, targets all detailed in if-then, either-or format.

My biggest issue is probably poor chasing if I don't fill. Usually half size because I just know better! And not being willing to take more than two stops in a day, only to watch it do what I thought it would, just a level farther.

Sending this into the ether a bit. I have to set my plan before the open each morning so I doubt I will be posting before entering. But I hope to try to recap so I am putting it out there instead of just in my trading notebook.
 
So this morning my plan was to go long at the opening, stop at 2280.75. I did per plan, but I was a bit blinded by my excitement that ES could get back into the balance of a few days ago. Target was lows of Jan 27, ~2287. Instead, it banged its head on the absolute low of the balance, which happened to coincide with the -38% fib I'd drawn in from yesterday's RTH range...Being stubborn a bit, I held until hit hit my stop (granted, for today's setup my stop was less than 2 points, but still). So that's clearly a problem as well...if you notice an error in initial thinking (or oversight here), get out... I think the issue for me at times is that I knew I'd missed the ideal entry for the reversal so could not bring myself to be wrong on the long...
 
AmyInTX said:
Have never posted on a trading forum before, but I have no local traders to talk to, family and friends who don't understand what I do/am trying to do. And the traders I know from other forums all do momo day trading and think ES is impossible.

I am up/down. Good discipline re: size, but I fall into familiar issues when I'm down and when I'm up.

I have a proprietary signal system that I have back tested as far as I can (but it's not years or anything). It's complicated but also pretty clean, different setups for choppier days and more directional action. Entries, stops, targets all detailed in if-then, either-or format.

My biggest issue is probably poor chasing if I don't fill. Usually half size because I just know better! And not being willing to take more than two stops in a day, only to watch it do what I thought it would, just a level farther.

Sending this into the ether a bit. I have to set my plan before the open each morning so I doubt I will be posting before entering. But I hope to try to recap so I am putting it out there instead of just in my trading notebook.
More...
%%
Printing plenty of candle charts can help;
wisdom is profitable to direct.ThanksTX
 
This morning my system was signaling long at yesterday's LOD. I was good about considering a pivot that was right under my entry location and how ES had acted around it instead of blindly taking the LOD, and fortunately my normal stop size encompassed both so was clean entry without having to widen stop or risk -1R and then taking the deeper location. Out per my rule at 2278 so cleared about 4.9R (could have gotten 78.50, but recent revisions to rule have me front running certain zones with wider stops rather than risking no fills). I had a doctor's appointment so did not take the reversal per my rule (and it's stalled out a bit since so while would have been in the money on that, it's pretty slow since the first move, which makes sense given how sideways things have been and jobs report tomorrow). And given my issues, I think it would have stressed me too much to take the reversal and walk away, even with bracket orders in place. So better day, and I'm happy about it.

Going to try to trade jobs tomorrow, not at the announcement, but at the normal open. Half size planned though, as I obviously have fewer samples with which to have formed the rule I have since it's just once per month!
 
In long at 2285.50. I think I need to put a note in my rule re: not needing to front run fibs. An analysis of days when I didn't fill in January was pointing to perfectionist tendencies of wanting to hit a level precisely and not accounting for a day with a fast reaction where it would turn a tick or two ahead. So I've been widening stops and frontrunning most levels 2 ticks. I don't have any Jobs days samples where this was necessary, and it wasn't today either (entry at -38% fib). Original exit target was 2294, but I do tend to second-guess as by this time (ie, 9:30 central), ES had hit an all-time high on July 8 and Aug 5. So wondering how much more it can make it. Hard hit at PP at 2291.50, but I don't expect exhaustion until a current day PP or an extended fib. Small size, but I'm just as nervous as a normal position...
 
Have moved stop to 1 pt behind -62% fibs and 1 tick behind R2... Waiting to see how 15-min closes at -100%. But none of the days like this (granted small small sample) have hit HOD until 11:30 or later...But they had got to all-time high by now...
 
Out at 2292.50. 5-min chart overbought, and selling tail on 15-min. If I'd frontrun 2294.25 2 ticks could have possibly filled, but unlikely. Out with small small profit. 2.3R. I am not comfortable shorting at the moment, but I do think a tradeable reversal at -100% is happening. Just depends on R:R for people.
 
May still need to work on patience. No new all-time high today so playing safe exiting where I did. Seems slow. But pulled back to 38% fib of opening range so we'll see.
 
Mixed signals coming into the opening. Waiting to see if I get an EMA crossover before the opening. Then looking for 2-sided day with a short after 9:00 and a reversal from around the PM low. If no crossover, my pattern for that setup is basically already broken so will have to consider more carefully if there is a clean entry. Given the breakdown at 6:30, I think the odds are I'll get the EMA crossover when the 8:00-15 candle closes.
 
In long at 87.75, which is not the fill I wanted, but I kind of panicked at the opening because I had stochastic alignment for a bull move, and I was sort of second-guessing my game plan. Want to see a strong bull close of the 8:45-9:00 candle.
 
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