Bets on the Euro, Place your bets.

[KINGOFSHORTS]

I can see the Euro cratering, crossing 1.20 when the default spread fears start to spreads and the Germans decide to not bail out countries with 4 hour work days and retirement at 60.

 

[trickshot]

Not gonna happen, they have too much vested interest in those countries.

 

[KINGOFSHORTS]

Germans will pull out first. Do you really think that the Germans after having to sacrafice are willing to use all the savings they did by cutting thier own services and working longer hours so that the Greeks,Spanish,Portuguese could work 4 hour days, 4 days a week and get all kinds of perks. 90 vacation days, fat pensions and benefits while the germans do with less?

Germans will just say, screw it and let them fend for themselves.

 

[DrPepper]

I own EUO (Proshares Ultrashort Euro) and have a trailing stop. It is doing well so far.

 

[KINGOFSHORTS]

I would not be surprised if EUO hits 24

 

[number22]

Quote from KINGOFSHORTS:

Germans will pull out first. Do you really think that the Germans after having to sacrafice are willing to use all the savings they did by cutting thier own services and working longer hours so that the Greeks,Spanish,Portuguese could work 4 hour days, 4 days a week and get all kinds of perks. 90 vacation days, fat pensions and benefits while the germans do with less?

Germans will just say, screw it and let them fend for themselves.

I agree, it is time to slaughter all these pigs.

 

[Ivanovich]

If Germany does pull out of the EMU (which is certainly a smart move on their part) the Euro is dead. You can essentially stick a fork in it.

 

[377OHMS]

Quote from KINGOFSHORTS:

Germans will pull out first. Do you really think that the Germans after having to sacrafice are willing to use all the savings they did by cutting thier own services and working longer hours so that the Greeks,Spanish,Portuguese could work 4 hour days, 4 days a week and get all kinds of perks. 90 vacation days, fat pensions and benefits while the germans do with less?

Germans will just say, screw it and let them fend for themselves.

This does capture the situation well. I can think of a similarity in the US too.

Why should the hard working industrious portions of the EU subsidize the easy life in the "less productive" areas?

 

[trickshot]

German banks have about $500b in exposure to PIGS borrowers, does anyone seriously think they can afford to let them die? Merkel is facing elections in May so there is political pressure on her to act tough right now, but reality will sink in eventually, the taxpayers (most likely German) will end up footing the bill somehow. There is just no other solution to this problem, exiting the EU and leaving the PIGS to their fates isn't a viable solution.

 

[uexkuell]

Quote from trickshot:
German banks have about $500b in exposure to PIGS borrowers, does anyone seriously think they can afford to let them die?

+1

No way Germany pulls out of Euro. This would be suicide.
(btw I am living in Germany).

Something that many people do not seem to notice:
Falling Euro is pretty good for the german economy since it is clearly export oriented.
It's exactly the game that US and China played for quite some time already: Keeping their currencies artificially low in order to make their economies more competitive.

Rising Euro was causing severe headaches to all those companies that are living on export.
Rising prices for imports (like energy sources and other raw materials) are by far not so important.

Therefore: Merkel and the others will in some way be even happy as long as Euro goes down in a somewhat controlled manner.
Expect this Greece / Portugal ... game going on for quite some time.