Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform
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Nadex suggested I might quickly resolve the issue by clearing out the "Cached Images and Files" stored on my web browser. I didn't think this would work given that I got the same message no matter which browser I used. However, after clearing the files in Chrome, I was able to log in, not only there, but on Mozilla Firefox as well. (I didn't check Microsoft Edge.)
Wednesday | November 1, 2023 | 7:57 AM PDT
NADEX's demo platform continues to be extremely "buggy." Nonetheless, I want to test out some specific trade ideas based on my final Numerical Price Prediction forecast models. It is my "habit" to ONLY trade the back end of in-the-money two-hour Forex derivative binary options. However, I am once again curious to see how often trades set to expire almost a full day later will opt NOT to behave as anticipated and somehow manage to cover the distance necessary to hand me a loss.
The first trade of this nature will be AUDUSD. At 0.6386, this pair has reached what I regard as the exosphere of its daily price range. In terms of its weekly limits, I would not expect to see it remain above 0.6410, should it happen to climb that high, and certainly not above 0.6474.
But, will it climb above 0.6436 by tomorrow and stay there (20 hours from now)? I don't know, and that's what I want to find out. It will cost me a whopping potential $95 loss to do so, for just a measly $15 payout.
NADEX's demo platform continues to be extremely "buggy." Nonetheless, I want to test out some specific trade ideas based on my final Numerical Price Prediction forecast models. It is my "habit" to ONLY trade the back end of in-the-money two-hour Forex derivative binary options. However, I am once again curious to see how often trades set to expire almost a full day later will opt NOT to behave as anticipated and somehow manage to cover the distance necessary to hand me a loss.
The first trade of this nature will be AUDUSD. At 0.6386, this pair has reached what I regard as the exosphere of its daily price range. In terms of its weekly limits, I would not expect to see it remain above 0.6410, should it happen to climb that high, and certainly not above 0.6474.
But, will it climb above 0.6436 by tomorrow and stay there (20 hours from now)? I don't know, and that's what I want to find out. It will cost me a whopping potential $95 loss to do so, for just a measly $15 payout.
Wednesday | November 1, 2023 | 11:30 AM PDT
Bearing in mind that for me, it is an undeniable truism that the market can do whatever it darn well pleases...
Given that AUDJPY: (1) saw its intraday trend turn north approximately 90 minutes ago, so is not likely to see it reverse south again already; (2) is looking at a bullish 14-minute price range envelope at 0.08% deviation where the lower band is above the 96.08 strike price; and (3) witnessed its two-minute price flow channel turn north a few minutes ago following a temporary pullback below the ten-minute baseline, which is also not likely to repeat itself in the next several minutes; I reasoned that the back end of the in-the-money two-hour binary option call contract with about a $90 risk and only a $12 reward is likely to still be in the money at expiry and therefore worth taking a chance on.
UPDATE: At about 11:34 AM the pair began moving spasmodically (and sharply) downward (probably having to do with the Fed press conference), and seeing as how the six contracts were still showing a good deal of profit, I went ahead and exited the position rather than hold on for the full payout, risking the chance that the rate might crawl ALL the way back down to the strike price. (And it's a good thing I did, because at 11:45 that's exactly what it looks like it's trying to do.)
With ten minutes left to go, its looking like the rate will still be above the strike price at expiry after all, and I would have pocketed the full payout had I remained in the trade. But that's okay though...better safe than sorry is the way I feel about it.
Bearing in mind that for me, it is an undeniable truism that the market can do whatever it darn well pleases...
Given that AUDJPY: (1) saw its intraday trend turn north approximately 90 minutes ago, so is not likely to see it reverse south again already; (2) is looking at a bullish 14-minute price range envelope at 0.08% deviation where the lower band is above the 96.08 strike price; and (3) witnessed its two-minute price flow channel turn north a few minutes ago following a temporary pullback below the ten-minute baseline, which is also not likely to repeat itself in the next several minutes; I reasoned that the back end of the in-the-money two-hour binary option call contract with about a $90 risk and only a $12 reward is likely to still be in the money at expiry and therefore worth taking a chance on.
UPDATE: At about 11:34 AM the pair began moving spasmodically (and sharply) downward (probably having to do with the Fed press conference), and seeing as how the six contracts were still showing a good deal of profit, I went ahead and exited the position rather than hold on for the full payout, risking the chance that the rate might crawl ALL the way back down to the strike price. (And it's a good thing I did, because at 11:45 that's exactly what it looks like it's trying to do.)
With ten minutes left to go, its looking like the rate will still be above the strike price at expiry after all, and I would have pocketed the full payout had I remained in the trade. But that's okay though...better safe than sorry is the way I feel about it.
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Yes it will. At 0.6444, AUDUSD was eight or nine pips out of the money, teaching me a very costly lesson...
AUDUSD WAS below 0.6436 at the end of the 24-hour market cycle. So... IF you want to try this "trick" again in the future, you should WAIT until you can purchase a contract that will expire at the end of the New York session, and perhaps buy an AT-the-money rather than in-the-money binary option.
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So then, at 1:24 PM PST, it's looking like AUDUSD WILL end the week above my projected high of 0.6474, seeing as how it's currently standing at 0.6510, about 36 pips higher than I would have thought.