Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform

[expiated]

Tuesday | May 31, 2022 | 10:15 AM PST

USDJPY is setting up beautifully for an in-the-money call contract as soon as the 30-minute baseline begins to hook north. But, since I cannot wait around for that to happen, I'm going in big right now... because...

1. The Forex market should be dying this far into the New York session.
2. The 2.5- and 1.83-hour trend lines are decidedly bullish.
3. I have two-hour and 40-minute temporal support at 128.48.
4. I have "mild" statistical support (in the form of the 70-minute price range) at 128.35.

I will therefore purchase 20 contracts with a 128.28 strike price, set for expiry 5 hours and 40 minutes from now, which provides MORE THAN ENOUGH time for things to go seriously wrong!

 

[expiated]

From last Friday...

If I take the potential average payout per contract ($7.75) and multiply this by the number of contracts (20), then subtract the transaction fee for opening and closing each position (20 × [1+1]) from the resulting product, and finally add this sum to the available balance of $21,278, it indicates I will have $23,258.00 in my account at the end of today's activity approximately two hours from now.

I did try to make a monster trade when USDJPY turned north to boost the balance by several hundred dollars, but for some reason, the Nadex demo platform would not allow me to open any additional positions.

 

[expiated]

Saturday | September 10, 2022

Some time back, after taking a couple of months to double an initial $10,000 Nadex demo account to $20,000, I wanted to see how long it would take me to grow it even further, to $30,000. My thought was that this time, I would be able to reach my goal much faster.

Indeed, this appeared to be the case when, in short order, I came to within $300 of the desired sum. Unfortunately, in my "excitement," I made an ill-advised move, which had a devastating effect. Consequently, I then began to experiment with "promising" new tactics, applying them until I had eventually managed to trade the account down to a couple of hundred bucks.

Now, a couple of additional months down the road, I believe I may have at long last finagled one "promising new tactic" that actually works—a technique so adept at forecasting what will occur in the market that it is almost impossible to make some kind of ill-advised move—that I have assembled all the puzzle pieces and placed them in the proper locations to paint true and accurate pictures of the future.

I therefore replenished my demo account on September 7, 2022 to bring it back up to $10,000, and began trading once again.

This time it took me two days—as opposed to two months—to double the account.

Obviously, this means I used methodologies that, in terms of risk, would be completely unacceptable if trading a real account. However, that's not the point.

The point is that, in order to be successful, the system basically had to be correct ALL the time. So, now that I have a methodology that is the next closest thing to ALWAYS being right, I should be able to take it and trade a LIVE account in accordance with all the standard guidelines governing risk/money management, and grow it to a sizable figure with what ought to be a very acceptable rate of growth.

 

[expiated]

The chart setup I'm currently using (October 2022 Culminating Chart II) I believe to be even more reliable than what I was doing in September. I made this USDCAD trade at 11:10 AM PST in my demo account because I was not going to be able to monitor and manage the position...

The reason for purchasing the back end of this two-hour binary option put contract was that the three "green baselines" were all turning south at the same time along with the bold black and "Battenberg" moving averages, after having just witnessed the candlesticks being rejected by the 1⅔-hours temporal resistance level (my three justifications for entering positions were recently listed in my "Compare & Contrast" thread)...

I could have also sold/shorted EURJPY due to candlesticks painting on the "wrong side" of a sloping thin, yellow-green baseline at the same time that they were being rejected by the 1⅔-hours temporal resistance level (though I elected not to do so)...

But, note that while the back end of this two-hour binary option put contract would have made for a successful trade at expiry, the rate actually reversed direction and began rising again one to two hours later, when the black and "Battenberg" moving averages reversed direction and headed north.

Note also that these trades were made with the "old" version of this configuration, without the benefit of a 45-minute baseline (since I forgot that I added this measure yesterday, which I'm only remembering now because I just refreshed the EURJPY chart).

This is a KEY measure, and had it been on the chart when I first analyzed the pair, I probably would not have given the trade a second thought, since this baseline was neutral, which would have invalidated such a move.

 

[expiated]

Just about everything about this pair was bearish, so when (shortly after 7:00 PM PST) the instantaneous moving averages and the bold black moving average turned south as well, I purchased the second half of a two-hour binary option put contract...

The rate has dropped about 20 pips since then. I should note that resistance levels had nothing to do with this trade. It was simply a matter of the fast moving averages rejoining all the others in a downward slope.

(This is all in advance of going live with the October 2022 Culminating Chart II configuration, to double check on whether it really is as reliable as it initially appeared to be at first glance, and how much the market might potentially move during the various intervals over a 24-hour market cycle.)

 

[voneberbach]

Thanks for your informative post. I find it very helpful!

 

[expiated]

Wednesday | March 29, 2023

I'm returning to this thread after being away almost half a year to record ONLY the UNSUCCESSFUL trades I make using the Nadex platform.

The reason is that my goal is to reach the point where I make NO losing trades through this exchange, because I trade their in-the-money binary options SO aggressively.

I therefore want to note and record WHY each fail occurs in an effort to avoid making the same mistake or taking action when the same set of circumstances exist ever again.

One guideline I already know I need to abide by is to never purchase a contract scheduled to expire at 2:00 PM Pacific Standard/Daylight Time because it is not unusual for price to make a crazy or bizarre move at that hour.

 

[expiated]

I'm returning to this thread after being away almost half a year to record ONLY the UNSUCCESSFUL trades I make using the Nadex platform.

A EURUSD long position entered on Sunday at 3:39 PM PDT (due to the fact that price was rebounding after falling well below the two-hour support level) was unsuccessful.

One might point to the fact that the 7-, 16-, 30-, 40, 60- and 120-minute measures were all bearish as being the reason for this, but it is also true that the contract was in-the-money at 4:00 PM.

Standard practice is to purchase contracts scheduled for expiry at the end of the hour, but this was not possible in that the first round of two-hour contracts are offered at 3:00 PM and Nadex does not offer one-hour contracts.

However, two hours provides too much time for tables to turn, so for sure, sticking with standard practice and NOT purchasing contracts that don't expire at the end of the current hour would have definitely avoided this loss.

 

[expiated]

So, having begun formal operations with my partner in India (on a trial basis) I am finding that, though he suggested he spends almost as much time trading as I do, in actuality, he spends almost no time trading (on his own) at all. Consequently, I doubt we will continue to collaborate after this week. But, for the time being at least, most of my thoughts are being shared via a private platform between the two of us. Nonetheless, there ARE a couple of things I want to note where I am more likely to run across them again, hence the following entry...

Having begun official operations as a practitioner of Numerical Price Projection (NPP), here is what (I think) are my ultimate views:

I used to debate whether the 20-, 30- or 40-minute baseline should be the primary arbiter of my decisions at the day trading level, but in fact, it is none of those. Rather, it is the 13-minute baseline.

The other three measures mentioned above ARE important however, but as PRICE RANGE ENVELOPES and NOT as baselines. Together, they convey the gist of where price is headed at the intraday level, or the directional tendency of price action, if you will.

Moreover, these channels, at the proper deviation levels, constitute the levels at which the "immediate" trend will, more often than not, elect to reverse direction. By immediate trend I am referring to the five-minute to 15-minute flow of price.

These reversals are best conveyed on a five-minute chart using the six-minute baseline and the ten-minute dynamic price range envelope, with the first indicator "riding" the upper band of the second when the immediate trend is bullish, or riding the lower band when the immediate trend is bearish.

(When the trend is neutral, the six-minute baseline will embark on a more-or-less sideways, or horizontal course between the two bands.)

Even so, one should probably be looking to enter short positions ONLY when when the 13-minute baseline is sloping downward, long positions ONLY when the 13-minute baseline is sloping upwards, and to remain on the sidelines when the 13-minute baseline is neutral. Also, the best time to enter positions is when the slope of the 13-minute baseline matches the slope of the three consensus price range envelopes mentioned above.

 

[expiated]

Standard practice is to purchase contracts scheduled for expiry at the end of the hour, but this was not possible in that the first round of two-hour contracts are offered at 3:00 PM and Nadex does not offer one-hour contracts. However, two hours provides too much time for tables to turn, so for sure, sticking with standard practice and NOT purchasing contracts that don't expire at the end of the current hour would have definitely avoided this loss.

RULE ONE: Stick with the standard practice of ONLY purchasing contracts that will expire within the PRESENT hour. (Two hours provides too much time for tables to turn.) In effect, this means the earliest you should begin trading each day is 4:00 PM Pacific Time.

RULE TWO: ONLY trade trending pairs, even though it is theoretically possible and also justifiable to trade a mean reversion/regression toward the mean strategy at the outer extremes of the typical price range of consolidating/accumulating pairs. (This is based on prudence and an abundance of caution and NOT on a failed trade.)