Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform

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POLAR POSITION STRATEGY ANALYSIS:

AUDJPY looks slightly bullish, with both the baseline and the fluctuation moving average headed north. Presently the ideal entry level for a long position would be below 74.49.

AUDUSD is definitely bullish. Ideal entry level for a long position is anywhere below the open, but especially below 0.7113, at least at the moment.

CADJPY is technically bearish, but currently extremely conflicted. Stay away for now.

EURAUD has gotten into some nice trends lately, but presently the baseline and fluctuation moving average are in conflict. The pair is bearish overall, so the best level for shorting the asset is presently above 1.6638, though anywhere above the open will have potential.

EURGBP has spent eight days swinging wildly up and down, so looking to the baseline for guidance is useless.

At 124.13, EURJPY, which has a bearish day-to-day sentiment, is already structured for a short position.

On Friday, EURUSD switched from bullish to neutral, though the daily fluctuation switched bearish to bullish.

GBPJPY is bearish all the way and just needs the right entry opportunity, even more so with GBPUSD.

The two New Zealand pairs you follow are definitely bullish, so look to buy below the open and especially below the daily-to-day baseline.

USDCAD is a mess! Stay away!!!

Look for selling opportunities when it comes to USDCHF and USDJPY.

 

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Saturday / October 24, 2020 / 3:45 AM PST

I'm wondering what to make of of the six-hour moving average, because it seems to track the day-to-day trend. However, I already have a day-to-day baseline which I deem to be 100% valid. So, I think I'm going to conceptualize the six-hour baseline as day-to-day fluctuations.

The process of writing down the directions on how to apply the Polar Position Trading Strategy (in notes I keep on my laptop) has helped to clarify the the above discrepancy in my mind. I wrote the following:

The 6-hour moving average (fluctuation baseline) conveys the general flow of price from a day-to-day perspective. It does so more closely than the day-to-day baseline. So then, the day-to-day baseline is not really what it purports to be, is it? It is not the slope of the daily trend. Rather, it is the slope of the daily candlesticks. So going forward, refer to the 6-hour moving average as the day-to-day baseline, and refer to the former day-to-day baseline as the daily candlestick baseline (or even better, refer to it as the daily candlestick trend line).

Generally speaking, one looks to the lowest possible time frame for direction, and the next highest time frame only for clarification. For example, to gauge the trajectory of price from a day-to-day perspective, one needs merely observe the slopes and positional relationships of the three-hour and six-hour baselines.

However, if these two trend lines are fluctuating wildly, making the day-to-day sentiment unclear, clarification is to be found by simply noting the slope of the daily candlestick trend line instead.

This changes things—especially your analyses from Post #31. It means pullbacks from the six-hour moving average will have more significance than pullbacks from the the daily candlestick moving average, which is probably part of the reason you found a twelve-hour time horizon to be too long and recommended a four-hour horizon in its place.

It also means that deviations from the six-hour moving average are likely to constitute valuable measures and that you should probably evaluate whether there is such a thing as a six-hour price range.

UPDATE: Yea, you can completely dispense with the analyses from Post #31. They are totally unnecessary. All you need do now to decide when to buy or sell per the Polar Position outlook is look at the new chart configuration based on the three-hour and six-hour baselines.

 

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Video on manipulating the Nadex charts:

https://www.nadex.com/learning/technical-analysis-and-the-power-of-nadex-charts/

 

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EXITING A SHORT POSITION WITH PROFIT:

The AVERAGE PRICE is what you paid to purchase a given binary-option put contract, which means this is the price you paid to sell the contract that was "loaned" to you. Accordingly, you will want to actually pay for the borrowed contract at a point when its value is less than it was when you purchased it. Consequently, as the CURRENT price goes down, your PROFIT goes up (see above images). If you want more profit than what is showing when you place a given "exit order," you will need to lower what is showing as the CURRENT price by that amount when you fill out the order ticket.

In the case of a binary-option call contract, just the opposite is true. You will want to sell the contract at a point where its value is higher than the price at which you bought it. Accordingly, as the CURRENT price goes up, your PROFIT goes up. If you want more profit than what is showing when you send a given "exit order," you will need to increase what is showing as the CURRENT price by that amount when you fill out the order ticket.

In this way, you can fill out an order ticket as soon as you purchase a contract to automatically exit with a specified amount of profit as soon as it becomes available (if ever) without having to monitor your positions.

 

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Fortunately, this post from October 15, 2020 turned out not to be true. For example, in my "real" account (i.e., live account), if I seek $12.75 in profit, my risk will be -$87.85 and not -$97.75...

 

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I purchased this two-hour USDJPY binary-option call contract about forty-five minutes before expiry, shooting for about $11.75 in profit...

However, I exited the position early, after just 15 minutes (with 30 minutes left to go) when there was about $7.50 in profit showing, feeling that this was enough of my original target to satisfy me, given that I would not have to sit around another half of an hour fretting about whether the pair might turn against me or not (even though this was highly unlikely).

Based on this trade, I'm going to begin considering automatically placing orders immediately upon entering positions to exit them once 65% of my target profit is realized to facilitate avoiding my having winners turn into losers.

Doing so is also likely to make me more comfortable with shooting for...say...$35 in profit as opposed to the safer in terms of odds, but not in terms of amount risked, $11.75.

 

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It looks like the strike prices on the weekly binary option Forex derivatives contracts are 100 pips apart, with about $40 difference between the first contract above and below the indicative price. So, the in-the-money contract would pay out around $14 and the out-of-the-money contract would return about $86.

 

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On the weekly expire, what are the dates/times you are able to choose?

 

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You are not able to choose. The weekly contract starts on Sunday afternoon for the current week and ends Friday afternoon.

 

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I saw a flashing Updates icon with the numeral 1 in the corner next to it (while I was trading using the Nadex platform) and when I clicked on it, this is the notice that popped up...