Bet On Line

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CADJPY
The orange & white Battenburg signal line is now bearish, but the white moving averages have yet to hook north, so watch to see if perhaps the white moving averages will provide a better entry signal than the orange Battenburg.

It appears that six hours was not an option. You would have had to have gone with one hour or four hours...

The pair is now vacillating between approximately 84.29 and 84.31, so based on what has happened during the last six or so hours, you should probably place your (one- or four-hour) wager for a long position at the close (or near the low) of a red candlestick.

Also, evaluate the feasibility of regarding the orange Battenburg moving average as an early alert signal and the white moving averages as a launch pad for entering positions.

 

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Based on CADJPY I'm currently leaning toward making hourly wagers based on the two lower-term trend lines on lower-term charts.

And the same lines on GBPUSD suggest it would be foolish to even think about wagering on the pair at this time...

 

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Cannot follow through on the above plan because the Battenburg moving average looks like it could be preparing to hook north...

If the instantaneous moving average comes down to meet the Battenburg at 0.7079, go ahead and make the (theoretical) move.

No, the Battenburg is hooking even more and the pair has already fallen quite a bit. So I'm now more curious to see if the red lines will begin hooking north as well.

Yeah, this is the move to make here. I am theoretically wagering that AUDUSD will be higher than 0.7082 an hour from now, at 3:00 a.m. PST (1:00 p.m. on this chart).

So the way to interpret the previous situation was that the instantaneous moving average had crossed above the Battenburg, so it constituted a short-term bullish situation.

Things should not have been considered bearish until and unless the instantaneous moving average crossed back below the Battenburg.

Based on the above observations, any line on a one-hour chart higher than the instantaneous moving average is too lagging to be of any practical value whatsoever when it comes to making actionable decisions...

This one-minute "Essential Lines" chart looks like it conveying exactly when the short-term bias is reversing, almost to the "penny" as AJ Montey like to say. So the 60-minute instantaneous moving average, the 5-minute "verified lines" setup, and this 1-minute chart are the ones it seems I ought to coordinate, with the final decision on exactly where to enter positions belonging to the 1-minute chart, which would have gotten me in at least 2 pips lower, at 0.7080...

 

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Yeah, this is the move to make here. I am theoretically wagering that AUDUSD will be higher than 0.7082 an hour from now, at 3:00 a.m. PST (1:00 p.m. on this chart).

This would have been a winning wager, but I have added a dynamic support and resistance envelope to my 1-minute essential lines setup to do a better job of entering positions at absolutely optimum levels (at 0.7080 as opposed to 0.7082 in this instance) and deleted the short-term fluctuating moving average, which was too lagging to be of real service in this regard...

 

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As lagging as the orange indicator might be, I’m afraid it provides the least ambiguous indication of the general direction in which exchange rates are headed.

I suppose the best I can do is look to the orange & white Battenburg and the blue moving averages to let me know when rates are reversing direction following radical swings in “price,” but switch to the bold orange trendline once volatility and liquidity have markedly subsided/diminished, with the pale green envelope more or less defining the more typical intraday price range, and entry levels for wagers being chosen in accordance with which side of the trend—whether determined by the Battenburg, blue, or bold orange trend line—the intraday price cycle has swung.

That said, with the bold orange moving average easing south, I would think NZDUSD's position an hour from now would be south of its current location at the top of the short-term intraday price range (0.6805) barring the release of any economic data, which I am too lazy to check on right now given that I do not have any genuine skin in the game.

The signal for making such a (15-minute or 30-minute) wager would be when the white moving average crosses below the red one. (But the signal ain't commin'. The pair just keeps climbing higher.)

TESTING A THEORY...

USDCHF is no doubt bearish, but the current distance between the rate's present level and the orange moving average leads me to believe that a wager on price continuing to climb higher once it turns north would be a prudent decision to make. I'll check back later to determine whether or not this turns out to actually be true.

Whoa! It looks like the rate already started making its move while I was typing this entry.

 

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Monday, March 4, 2019

10:31 a.m. PST / 8:31 p.m. on my OANDA charts

On the USDCHF one-minute chart, candlesticks are now forming below the white moving averages, and the next one will almost certainly form below the red moving averages as well. However, the orange and white Battenberg is still evidencing an upward slope, and at present, my guidelines direct me to assign this indicator the greatest amount of weight. So if it is correct to do so, I should eventually see the candlesticks once again climbing higher.

The blue moving averages on the five-minute chart have yet to begin angling north, but now that I think about it, I should be ignoring them anyway since this is not a situation in which there has been a radical swing in the exchange rate.

But what about the Battenberg? It too was to take precedence during radical swings, but this does not change the fact that it was already slated to receive the greatest amount of significance and consideration when evaluating and interpreting price action. So, given that the market is rather dead at the moment, do I go with the two shorter-term trend lines or with the Battenburg.

At 10:59 a.m. PST the candlesticks are once again forming above everything, so it looks like the Battenberg just might win out.

UPDATE...

At 11:04 a five-minute candlestick has formed under the Battenburg, which is likely to soon hook south, confirming the bearish signal from the two shorter-term moving averages, so I’m going to go out on a limb here and mark this as the moment I should wager that USDCHF will be lower than its present position at 0.9995 one hour from now.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I was watching a video where some guy whose name I believe is Kristian Harloff mentioned that he bet money on the Oscars, and he was on the phone checking the odds on his picks with some guy from an Antigua/Barbuda gambling site called Betonline.

I was curious as to whether they might offer bets on financials, so I checked them out and it appears that they do. It also looks like they might prove to be an acceptable alternative to Nadex, which I have decided not to give any more of my business for a number of different reasons.

First of all, it looks like their minimum deposit amount is $50, whereas I believe Nadex is up to $200. Second, it seems a wager at the current price offers a potential 75% return on investment as compared to only 50% at Nadex. Of course, a professional investor would insist on a minimum 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio, but with a daily success rate north of 80% to 90%, a reward-to-risk ratio of 7:10 doesn’t bother me at all.

From what I can gather, the minimum stake is $2.00, which beats the heck out of Nadex’s $100, and it appears Betonline has flexible time increments of 1 min, 5 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hours, and 1 day, which I will probably no doubt prefer to Nadex's regimented and limited 5-min, 20-min, 1-hour, 2-hour, and multiples of 4-hour blocks.

View attachment 198243
A lot of betting sites do not serve U.S. residents, but this one apparently does, and since a move of one pip can be worth $1.50 on a $2.00 wager, there is the potential for me to make a lot more money at Betonline than I am currently making with my 0.01 Lot trades at OANDA, so if I end up giving them my business, this is where I will keep track of my experiences there.

Sure---just send your 50 bucks to Costa Rica and get started on the path to a million----

 

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At 11:04 a five-minute candlestick has formed under the Battenburg, which is likely to soon hook south, confirming the bearish signal from the two shorter-term moving averages, so I’m going to go out on a limb here and mark this as the moment I should wager that USDCHF will be lower than its present position at 0.9995 one hour from now.

This too would have been a successful wager, even though I have only just begun evaluating how to best interpret the latest iterations of my post automated-trading-system-adventure setups, so I will continue to hone the process of making predictions using these charts until I actually begin placing live wagers, which I am now almost certain to eventually do, given what I have seen.

 

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I only had time to make three trades today...



But that was simply to put the final touches on the setup I will be using when I'm finally ready to begin placing wagers at betonline...

I won't bother going into detail on how the chart is used, but I will mention that all of the indicators are proprietary. In order to achieve the precision required for what I plan to do, standard "out-of-the-box" moving averages, envelopes, and oscillators just will not suffice.