best way to short gold
- Thread starter billyjoerob
- Start date
GLD has had white candles for 11/23 sessions in this decline. The open has gapped down 15/23 times. That means that dip buyers are stepping in and holding it up during the US sessions while overseas sellers are taking it down overnight. This won't collapse until the US dip buyers stop lighting their money on fire and let the decline take it's course.
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Having already beaten this topic to death a few times already , I'm still struck by the complacency and the pervasive bottom calling on gold. If this were a stock, hard to believe the bottom callers would be so ready to call an end to the decline.
Gold has two modes - wildly overvalued and trading below production cost. There is no middle ground (ok, that's bluffing a little bit. But I think that's a good summary of what's happened to gold since the 70s). Gold is not going to trade above all-in or cash production cost if it's not going up. If it's not going up, it's going down. If gold isn't going up, there's no reason to hold it.
Look at this candlevolume chart and see if you can find the capitulation/panic/bottom. We're on track for 55M of volume, which is nothing special. Panic levels would be above 110M, at least.
Gold has two modes - wildly overvalued and trading below production cost. There is no middle ground (ok, that's bluffing a little bit. But I think that's a good summary of what's happened to gold since the 70s). Gold is not going to trade above all-in or cash production cost if it's not going up. If it's not going up, it's going down. If gold isn't going up, there's no reason to hold it.
Look at this candlevolume chart and see if you can find the capitulation/panic/bottom. We're on track for 55M of volume, which is nothing special. Panic levels would be above 110M, at least.
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Gold has got some catching down to do if you view it with the 60 day performance of
copper, steel and emerging markets. These things are being taken to the woodshed the last few months and are making new lows.
Biggest red bars in gold over the years have been the surprise exchange
margin increase anouncements. 'Bout now?
copper, steel and emerging markets. These things are being taken to the woodshed the last few months and are making new lows.
Biggest red bars in gold over the years have been the surprise exchange
margin increase anouncements. 'Bout now?
don't worry it should warm up by Friday . . .
The gold bulls tell me that gold has nothing to do with copper, steel, or emerging markets. It's a currency, you see. But the fact is the Chinese, Saudis and lots of other commodity producers recycle oil and export surpluses into gold . . . that's why gold followed oil in the 2000s. But now there are no commodity profits and the Chinese are burning the furniture to keep the stock market up so whats ultimately for sale? Gold. The emerging economies price lots of debt in dollars and as the dollar appreciates the negative cycle reinforces itself. That obviously doesn't mean that gold goes down tomorrow or next month but gold is caught up in larger forces, as you mention, and it will struggle to be the last commodity standing.
The people propping it up are the true believers in the US. It's really more an ideology than anything at this point. The decline of gold invalidates the ideology, so they'll prop it up at any cost.
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I'm back to beat this to death again. the utter complacency in gold just means that when the panic starts, it will be legendary. it will be one for the ages. it will be like somebody exploded a dumpster filled with used syringes in a disco filled with retarded clowns. it's coming, and it will be tremendous.