Best way to annualize yield from naked puts?

Quote from Put_Master:

One should assume there will always be breaks between trades.
But the shorter the trades, and thus the more frequent the breaks between trades, the more trading day gaps will result.
And the more gaps there are, the less accurate the "blend" of your annualized returns will turn out to be at year end.

If you are earning 20% with each trade, and each trade only last 2 weeks, and there are 7 days gap between those 20% return trades,.... don't expect to have earned 20% on your account value at year end,.... even though you earned 20% on each trade.

On the other hand of your trades last 2 months, with the same 20% return per trade, with the same 7 day gap between trades, you will earn extremely close to 20% at year end.

Do a one year LEAPS that earns 20% and you will have earned 20% on your account cash at year end.

And of course, being on margin, which I am, also helps to fill in those trading day gaps.
Hence the reason i earned over 22% last year, even though most of my trades paid 13 - 19%.


I'm shocked that you don't annualize or have some kind of "benchmark" you use to evaluate the R/R of your trades.
Everyone should have some kind of "standard minimum benchmark", to evaluate whether the trade risk is worth the potential reward.

There are plenty of trades I pass up, because they pay below my minimum benchmark of 12%.
(When the VIX rises, I'll then raise my minimum benchmark).

risk, reward, and correlation to the rest of the book is all I care about.

I don't look at selling puts as generating income. I look at it as selling risk. So the yield isn't important. If I get a high enough price to justify selling that risk then that's enough.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

risk, reward, and correlation to the rest of the book is all I care about.

I don't look at selling puts as generating income. I look at it as selling risk. So the yield isn't important. If I get a high enough price to justify selling that risk then that's enough.
I think you are just putting us on.
There are only 3 reasons to sell puts.
Either to generate income, or as a method to buy a stock long at a specific desired price.
Or a combination of the two.
Hence, given your 4th reason,.... you are clearly just having fun with the board.
 
Quote from Put_Master:

I think you are just putting us on.
There are only 3 reasons to sell puts.
Either to generate income, or as a method to buy a stock long at a specific desired price.
Or a combination of the two.
Hence, given your 4th reason,.... you are clearly just having fun with the board.

You don't think puts (index, single-name) are shorted all the time as a directional vol-bet? If you're right on both you can earn more than the outright.
 
Quote from Put_Master:

I think you are just putting us on.
There are only 3 reasons to sell puts.
Either to generate income, or as a method to buy a stock long at a specific desired price.
Or a combination of the two.
Hence, given your 4th reason,.... you are clearly just having fun with the board.
Not true. He is using short puts as a way to offset other risks in his book. Imagine that you are long volatility/short carry or even simply short the market in other ways, selling puts might be a prudent way to reduce the risk of the overall position.
 
Quote from sle:

Not true. He is using short puts as a way to offset other risks in his book. Imagine that you are long volatility/short carry or even simply short the market in other ways, selling puts might be a prudent way to reduce the risk of the overall position.
But isn't he reducing risk by generating income?
 
Quote from atticus:

You don't think puts (index, single-name) are shorted all the time as a directional vol-bet? If you're right on both you can earn more than the outright.
Aren't you saying it's used to generate income?

It's like someone saying I'm selling puts to lower my cost basis.
You are lowering your cost basis, by generating income.
 
Quote from Put_Master:

But isn't he reducing risk by generating income?
No. He is reducing risk by going long delta and short vol. You should try thinking in terms of instantaneous risks, not in terms of terminal payoffs and you will get it.
 
Quote from sle:

No. He is reducing risk by going long delta and short vol. You should try thinking in terms of instantaneous risks, not in terms of terminal payoffs and you will get it.
OK.
 
Quote from ferrycorsten:

Sorry PM, you lost me on step two. I never actually gave a strike, just said the underlying was at 50. Do you use the strike of the put, or the underlying price for the calculation?

cd, i take it you are not a fan of naked puts?

i'm not a fan of thinking about selling premium in the respect that you first proposed.. i don't think its a coincidence that putmaster joined.. this is just up his ally..

just like atticus and newworld said.. those extrapolated annual returns literally mean nothing relative to the actual value your trading.. i really don't wanna go back and forth about it.. putmaster will though..

its a relative value thing.. you speculating on the relative value of implieds against realized.. i know you know all this stuff.. you don't wanna build an idea that you can rest your hat on that is literally shit... you are selling an implied distribution by selling a put... do you have some edge in what that implied distribution will be? to me your better off selling puts in an index that has richer premium to sell..

if you had a model of how to determine if a put was overvalued , and how much it was overvalued, and how much you would have to risk to extract that value.. then you could think about applying some extrapolation to your earnings possibly... i would say you were going maybe somewhere then.. doing it like your talking doesn't make sense to me at all..

i'm not trying to be harsh about it really... its just werid how many times putmaster has talked about this and how bad of a perspective it is for looking at value in risk premium..

<<< my question is.. why aren't more questions asked about looking for ways to get long vol and uncorrelate there short vol positions.. instead of focusing on selling more premium in a 12 vix environment at all time highs?
 
Back when I was part of the management of a Pharma company we had three big offices: One in Philadelpha, one in London and one in Paris.

The two European offices were at constant war with each other and ocassionaly I would be dispatched to try to get the two to work together.

I have a memory of sitting in a street side cafe in Paris with the managers of the two offices trying to get agreement on very basic issues.

I never succeeded.

There was a good reason: The two cultures were completely incompatible. Their basic ideas of what life, and thus business was all about didn't and couldn't mesh. They didn't speak the same language in a much bigger sense than just vocabulary and grammer.

When I saw this video I thought of those Paris street-side meetings:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSEYXWmEse8


There are two completely different basic concepts (goals, strategies) of what trading options is all about represented here and I am amazed that nobody seems to understand what that huge difference is.

(hint: what about Theta?)
 
Back
Top