Best trendy futures

Quote from Trader_Herry:

But picking a good market is never mant to be a shortcut, buddy. :D

You still need to know how to grasp them.
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Pal, you don't know how to grasp trading.

It is curious that so many or most don't follow the straight line A to B .. shortest route to making money. They arrive at ET with an answer or a preference. As if the market will fit in with each and everyone's preconceptions.

Now you want a smooth trend .. then what? Wait till it ends and then what? Wait around for the next one? In the amateur world of traders, most trend lookers are mainly looking for an excuse not to engage with the market. Is this a market top or bottom? Is this a bull or bear market? Let me oh let me do my dance of refrain. They are already too weak or frightened. The market invites and invites, prices pulsating constantly, "Come to me" the market says, see my prices moving, prices patterning, prices gyrating. But no, 'I know how to tame all this' you think; I'll look for a smooth trend. Trouble is, if even there now and again, you won't recognize when it began and you won't know when it is ending or ends.

Just look at the cornucopia index futures offer each day (eg YM). Count the points offered by the main gyrations.
:)
 
One approach I've used in the past, with reasonable success, is along these lines:
  1. (very important): Figure out what timeframe you're interested in. (You might use "duration of average trade" to measure this.)
  2. Create a dozen mechanical trading systems that operate in general around your preferred timeframe. The systems might be (a) Breakout system; (b) Moving average crossover system; (c) J. Welles Wilder Parabolic stop-and-reverse system; (d) Bollinger bands system; (E) Stocastic Overbought/Oversold system; each with two or three different parameter settings
  3. Run those systems on all possible markets and collect per-market statistics such as %Wins, Average Trade in R-Multiples, Profit Factor, Smoothness, etc.
  4. Rank the markets from best to worst on the statistic(s) that you value most. You could pick "Average of Profit Factor on all 12 system runs" or whatever else you like.
  5. Now you've got a list of markets ranked by goodness, where you (not some long departed poster on ET) decided "what is good?".
For the timeframes I prefer, the top of the list is often dominated by interest rate futures. Eurodollars and BOBLs usually find their way to the Honor Roll, for example.
 
Quote from MGJ:

One approach I've used in the past, with reasonable success, is along these lines:
  1. (very important): Figure out what timeframe you're interested in. (You might use "duration of average trade" to measure this.)
  2. Create a dozen mechanical trading systems that operate in general around your preferred timeframe. The systems might be (a) Breakout system; (b) Moving average crossover system; (c) J. Welles Wilder Parabolic stop-and-reverse system; (d) Bollinger bands system; (E) Stocastic Overbought/Oversold system; each with two or three different parameter settings
  3. Run those systems on all possible markets and collect per-market statistics such as %Wins, Average Trade in R-Multiples, Profit Factor, Smoothness, etc.
  4. Rank the markets from best to worst on the statistic(s) that you value most. You could pick "Average of Profit Factor on all 12 system runs" or whatever else you like.
  5. Now you've got a list of markets ranked by goodness, where you (not some long departed poster on ET) decided "what is good?".
For the timeframes I prefer, the top of the list is often dominated by interest rate futures. Eurodollars and BOBLs usually find their way to the Honor Roll, for example.
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Thanks for your valuable advice. :)

I'm a manual trader, so I am unable to do some of them. But a market with great volatility, smoother and bigger intraday trend should suit my need. What's more, it has to be liquid.


One question: why do you need to run different systems on all possible markets at the same time?

Are you going to find the best system on a particular market (so you are going to use this one on that market)?
 
If the goal is to determine the "trendiness" of a certain market, independent of any particular trading system, one way to accomplish this is to run that market through lots of different trading systems and combine their results. Now instead of measuring the trend-profitability of a market for one trading system, you've approximately measured it on all systems.

Another way to do this is to find an indicator that purports to directly measure trendiness (such as Chande's RAVI or J. Welles Wilder's ADX) and apply it to each candidate market. However it is a nontrivial philosophical exercise to decide how to combine together the thousands of daily RAVI readings on (for example) the EuroSTOXX futures, into a single figure-of-merit number.

(by the way: I claim that Chande's definition of RAVI contains a fatal flaw which renders it useless for comparisons between different futures markets, when backadjusted continuous contracts are employed. Readers may enjoy looking up Chande's definition and thinking about it for a few minutes, to see whether they agree or disagree with my claim.)
 
Quote from MGJ:

If the goal is to determine the "trendiness" of a certain market, independent of any particular trading system, one way to accomplish this is to run that market through lots of different trading systems and combine their results. Now instead of measuring the trend-profitability of a market for one trading system, you've approximately measured it on all systems.

Another way to do this is to find an indicator that purports to directly measure trendiness (such as Chande's RAVI or J. Welles Wilder's ADX) and apply it to each candidate market. However it is a nontrivial philosophical exercise to decide how to combine together the thousands of daily RAVI readings on (for example) the EuroSTOXX futures, into a single figure-of-merit number.

(by the way: I claim that Chande's definition of RAVI contains a fatal flaw which renders it useless for comparisons between different futures markets, when backadjusted continuous contracts are employed. Readers may enjoy looking up Chande's definition and thinking about it for a few minutes, to see whether they agree or disagree with my claim.)
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What software do you use to do this analysis?

I'm new to analysis software, and I would like to know which analysis software is good at doing this.
 
Yeah, very smooooooth indeed. until you enter... He he he

Another trend follower?


Quote from Trader_Herry:

How about volatility?

Smooth intra-day trends?
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