Best strategies to start trading

[volpri]

You sure this isn't like seeing patterns in the stars in the night sky?

Surely, since you've put in so much of this hard work, you have great insights to tell us.

How do you know when you win that it wasn't a false positive?

Because is wasn’t a true negative...jingle goes the cash register.

 

[volpri]

All right time to cut the BS

Farmer quit acting like you don’t know anything about trading and in particular TA.

You appear to be a “never TA’er” while many of us are in the basket of TA deplorables.

Hint: We win.

 

[notagain]

what you say? TA

 

[Steve Alexander]

I have spent over a decade educating myself about the economy. Despite all of this, I have come to realize that when you enter a trade, it is somewhat similar to spinning a roulette wheel. There is no way to actually know what will happen in the future. I have a business that makes returns between 40-60% usually. So the only way for trading to be worth my time is if it's leveraged trading such as currency pairs, options, or futures.

To give examples, just in September, everyone (including the "best" economists in the world) are saying an upcoming recession is practically a guarantee. Now just 3 months later and they are saying the opposite.

What are the best strategies to use to try to get high returns, but hedging risk if I guess wrong.

I am of the opinion that technical analysis is not reliable. Can anyone change my mind on that?

I have a practice currency trading account and a practice options account. So I have seen the potential risk and reward. For example, on Thanksgiving night, I put $100,000 fake dollars buying EUR/USD. I would have profited $50,000 right now, and a couple days ago it was at $75,000 profit.

I have been trading since 1969. My worst year was 2008, when I made 11%. My best year, I made well over 50%. This past year, I made 67%, so far. Here's what I recommend:
1. Stop listening to "economists". Who told you they know anything about trading?
2. Throw away your TV. I haven't had one in 20 years.
3. Never read or watch anything from Main Stream media - especially the New York Times.
4. If you absolutely must follow someone, follow me. I tweet all my trades the day BEFORE I make them, and I've been doing this since November, 2018 (@RandomFour). No charge. Merry Christmas.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I have been trading since 1969. My worst year was 2008, when I made 11%. My best year, I made well over 50%. This past year, I made 67%, so far. Here's what I recommend:
1. Stop listening to "economists". Who told you they know anything about trading?
2. Throw away your TV. I haven't had one in 20 years.
3. Never read or watch anything from Main Stream media - especially the New York Times.
4. If you absolutely must follow someone, follow me. I tweet all my trades the day BEFORE I make them, and I've been doing this since November, 2018 (@RandomFour). No charge. Merry Christmas.

Wow. What a great post. I feel like I could ask you a million questions.

Is it fundamental analysis or technical analysis that you use more? Do you technical indicators, or combinations of them?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

gamblers

Gamblers have been mentioned a few times since I've joined. Instead of looking through the POV of the gambler, look through the POV of the casino. They have a system that is mathematically in their favor. They will always win long-term.

You can write a mathematical proof of how the casino wins money with a roulette wheel, for example. That's what I'm looking for. A set of indicators telling me when to enter a trade that will give me an advantage long-term. And I would like to back test it.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I have been trading since 1969. My worst year was 2008, when I made 11%. My best year, I made well over 50%. This past year, I made 67%, so far. Here's what I recommend:
1. Stop listening to "economists". Who told you they know anything about trading?
2. Throw away your TV. I haven't had one in 20 years.
3. Never read or watch anything from Main Stream media - especially the New York Times.
4. If you absolutely must follow someone, follow me. I tweet all my trades the day BEFORE I make them, and I've been doing this since November, 2018 (@RandomFour). No charge. Merry Christmas.

After looking in more detail, you bet on leveraged index funds and sector funds. You always bet for a bull market. You don't have a set hold period when you buy, but it's usually a few days, sometimes a few weeks.

How do you know when to take a loss?

 

[ironchef]

You can write a mathematical proof of how the casino wins money with a roulette wheel, for example.

You can write a mathematical proof of how you can beat the casino in roulette if you can time.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You can write a mathematical proof of how you can beat the casino in roulette if you can time.

Yes the Martingale System. It works until you lose many times in a row. But if you have enough capital so that is unlikely to happen in your lifetime, then you'll win. But the ROI may not be worth the time.

 

[ironchef]

Yes the Martingale System. It works until you lose many times in a row. But if you have enough capital so that is unlikely to happen in your lifetime, then you'll win. But the ROI may not be worth the time.

Not martingale.