Best strategies to start trading

farmerjohn1324 said:
To give examples, just in September, everyone (including the "best" economists in the world) are saying an upcoming recession is practically a guarantee. Now just 3 months later and they are saying the opposite.
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You just answered your own question!!! LOL!

Everyone was calling for a recession and trading is a zero-sum game. Everyone on forums and social media was calling tops, shorted the market and bought puts(record volume on puts just before the breakout). The path of least resistance was up.

What's going to happen in 2020 when everyone is saying the opposite? I guess you can figure that out for yourself.

Technical analysis works and it works REALLY well if you know how to use it, but it takes THOUSANDS of hours of screen time!! There is million things that can influence the value - fundamental, news, blah blah, you name it. We can't possibly know it all. And when it comes to price, it's just a single parameter and it never lies. Everything is priced in. The markets move according to the suppy&demand, which is dictated by fundamentals. But as a trader, the why is not important to me. I will let the banks do the research and i'm fine just piggy-backing their sponsorship.

It's about probabilities too. You'll be wrong a lot.

P.s: Trading is the most miserable thing you can do with your life.
Friendly advice is to avoid trading at all costs. It's one of the hardest ways of making money.
 
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farmerjohn1324 said:
I'm confused what I'm looking at. The charts show a year. Where were your trades placed?

Do you use vertical spreads to hedge risk?
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The basic idea is a sharp down move will crush call prices, it's just buying a pullback.
Risk a hundred to win a hundred, but get the direction right at least 55% of the time
 
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CharlesS said:
O: Open
H: High
L: Low
C: Close

prices of price bars

Attempt to see relations among these prices, in one bar and in sequences of bars.

This is the kind of hard work that has been mentioned in this thread.
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You sure this isn't like seeing patterns in the stars in the night sky?

Surely, since you've put in so much of this hard work, you have great insights to tell us.

How do you know when you win that it wasn't a false positive?
 
notagain said:
The basic idea is a sharp down move will crush call prices, it's just buying a pullback.
Risk a hundred to win a hundred, but get the direction right at least 55% of the time
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So after a sharp downturn happens, what do you do exactly?
 
"You sure this isn't like seeing patterns in the stars in the night sky?"
A: Finding when that's not the case is a big part of the work

"Surely, since you've put in so much of this hard work, you have great insights to tell us"
A: Re-read the "Consider..." entry

"How do you know when you win that it wasn't a false positive?"
A: Same as 1st Answer
 
Trade the Micro's with a catastophic loss or daily loss limit. Use TradingView's public Library and find a strategy that you like. Nevermind that the strategies there are for Bitcoin...try them on the MNQ.

ES

farmerjohn1324 said:
I have spent over a decade educating myself about the economy. Despite all of this, I have come to realize that when you enter a trade, it is somewhat similar to spinning a roulette wheel. There is no way to actually know what will happen in the future. I have a business that makes returns between 40-60% usually. So the only way for trading to be worth my time is if it's leveraged trading such as currency pairs, options, or futures.

To give examples, just in September, everyone (including the "best" economists in the world) are saying an upcoming recession is practically a guarantee. Now just 3 months later and they are saying the opposite.

What are the best strategies to use to try to get high returns, but hedging risk if I guess wrong.

I am of the opinion that technical analysis is not reliable. Can anyone change my mind on that?

I have a practice currency trading account and a practice options account. So I have seen the potential risk and reward. For example, on Thanksgiving night, I put $100,000 fake dollars buying EUR/USD. I would have profited $50,000 right now, and a couple days ago it was at $75,000 profit.
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ElectricSavant said:
Trade the Micro's with a catastophic loss or daily loss limit. Use TradingView's public Library and find a strategy that you like. Nevermind that the strategies there are for Bitcoin...try them on the MNQ.

ES
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Ok. What platform must I download to trade mini futures? Are these straight from the CME or a broker?
 
Wheezooo said:
The best directional traders I have watched, and what caught my attention and impressed the shit out of me when I started, were the guys who could be balls to the wall long, bullish as shit, and a second later when they don’t see the market performing consistent to their expectation, they don’t go flat, but immediately, and without blinking, go short. Takes an amazing combination of ego and humility to do that.
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Yeah, I know someone who fits that description to the T. :D
 
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