Best strategies to start trading
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Hence the difference between human A and human B
I'm confused what I'm looking at. The charts show a year. Where were your trades placed?
Do you use vertical spreads to hedge risk?
Yup exactly random. Place a fake bet, one minute up another down.
Economists, especially those from FOMC, are lagging indicators. Like the stochastics and the moving averages on the chart, they merely mirror the price of the stock market. If the stock market surges then there's nothing to worry. If the stock market tanks, then the world's coming to an end and they need to slash the rates, blah blah. You will never see FOMC taking preemptive moves to solve the problem BEFORE it happens.
Do you enter trade when 90 crosses the 9?
Sigh, I repeat there are NO SHORTCUTS. Do the work or do something else.
I think it's good to acknowledge the gambling nature of it. But is there any way to increase odds to >50%?
For example, I can GUARANTEE that the S&P will be higher in 50 years than it is today. But that doesn't help me with short-term leveraged trading.
What platform do you trade on?
What work exactly?
At what point did you enter that trade and why?
Consider --
Maritime navigation for centuries relied on the Ptolemic view that the sun orbited the earth. Results could be ok, even good.
Results got much better when navigators adopted Copernican astronomy.
Almost the entire population of traders using TA are doing something akin to tweaking various Ptolemic views of markets. Results can be ok, even very good, even excellent, depending on all sorts of factors, many of which are not related to market analysis, eg money management and great skill at the trading operation, or in structuring and managing options positions.
But since the market-projecting operations in their models are fundamentally distinct from actual price discovery mechanisms in markets, and since most traders cannot endure the losing streaks that beset even strategies w/ 60% win rates, many traders throw out TA as worthless. Their learning does not advance far enough for them to see beyond the undetected Ptolemic haze that envelops public discussion of TA.
Unlike the spread of scientific advances, Copernican market insight does not diffuse much beyond those who achieve it on their own, it does not reach the Ptolemians. Thus self-confirming conversations among Ptolemians about the worthlessness of TA. Availability bias at work.
And then there's the rare public education that is truly Copernican, but usually, viscerally rejected by most of those in the Ptolemic haze as "catching a falling knife" ....
Maritime navigation for centuries relied on the Ptolemic view that the sun orbited the earth. Results could be ok, even good.
Results got much better when navigators adopted Copernican astronomy.
Almost the entire population of traders using TA are doing something akin to tweaking various Ptolemic views of markets. Results can be ok, even very good, even excellent, depending on all sorts of factors, many of which are not related to market analysis, eg money management and great skill at the trading operation, or in structuring and managing options positions.
But since the market-projecting operations in their models are fundamentally distinct from actual price discovery mechanisms in markets, and since most traders cannot endure the losing streaks that beset even strategies w/ 60% win rates, many traders throw out TA as worthless. Their learning does not advance far enough for them to see beyond the undetected Ptolemic haze that envelops public discussion of TA.
Unlike the spread of scientific advances, Copernican market insight does not diffuse much beyond those who achieve it on their own, it does not reach the Ptolemians. Thus self-confirming conversations among Ptolemians about the worthlessness of TA. Availability bias at work.
And then there's the rare public education that is truly Copernican, but usually, viscerally rejected by most of those in the Ptolemic haze as "catching a falling knife" ....
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