Best strategies to start trading

[gaussian]

There are definitely quantifiable edges in markets. For example, if you run a backtest in the SPY etf from 1993 to present, you will find that buying after 3 consecutive lower closes on the daily chart and holding 3 days, outperforms buying after 3 consecutive higher closes and holding 3 days. This is just one of numerous examples.

You'd also find buying and holding SPY from 1993 to today would be extremely profitable. You'd still be above your cost basis after 2007. Having DCA'd into the recession your profits in the last decade would be insane.

If you dont compare your strategy to buy and hold you don't have a quantifiable edge. To OP, @SteveM's post demonstrates succinctly why TA is basically complicated tea leaf reading.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You'd also find buying and holding SPY from 1993 to today would be extremely profitable. You'd still be above your cost basis after 2007. Having DCA'd into the recession your profits in the last decade would be insane.

If you dont compare your strategy to buy and hold you don't have a quantifiable edge. To OP, @SteveM's post demonstrates succinctly why TA is basically complicated tea leaf reading.

About 23% annual ROI if you bought in beginning of 1993.

You can't predict recession bottoms or tops until after the fact. In fact, you don't even know you're in a recession until you're 6 months into it, by definition.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You'd also find buying and holding SPY from 1993 to today would be extremely profitable. You'd still be above your cost basis after 2007. Having DCA'd into the recession your profits in the last decade would be insane.

If you dont compare your strategy to buy and hold you don't have a quantifiable edge. To OP, @SteveM's post demonstrates succinctly why TA is basically complicated tea leaf reading.

So what do YOU trade based on?

 

[gaussian]

About 23% annual ROI if you bought in beginning of 1993.

You can't predict recession bottoms or tops until after the fact. In fact, you don't even know you're in a recession until you're 6 months into it, by definition.

If you followed his strategy you'd have blown out during the worst part of the recession. My point is simple TA stopped working in 1980 when information disseminated to every participant at the speed of light. Worse yet, with robots trading simple "buy after a 3 bar high" will get crushed in the chop. I have taken a lot of wasted hours backtesting simple TA strategies. I have books on them. There may be edge in mashing indicators together until something fits but there is no "buy X when Y happens" strategy, easily parseable by a human, that will produce consistent edge after walk forward and ruin analysis over 15 years of data.

So what do YOU trade based on?

Statistical analysis on futures spreads. In particular commodities with statistically significant seasonal patterns. I also like buying LEAPS on underpriced companies that have good financials.


I use simple technical analysis to gauge entries on my spreads. There is some utility in understanding the psychological bounds of the market. I don't use them for signals. I use it to see if I'm nearing a point I think the market will either support my entry, or I should just stay out.

 

[Wheezooo]

in 1980 when information disseminated to every participant at the speed of light.

You're about a decade plus ahead of yourself there.

 

[TheBigShort]

I am of the opinion that technical analysis is not reliable.

It's not. Be careful who you listen to on ET. TA was invented before computers. People who are still using it today have been slow or unwilling to change with the times. Day trading one product using TA like mentioned above is unheard of in the modern world. Today edges are so small and you have to spread your bets across multiple assets.

Seeing who the believers of TA are should also give you a sense on who you should avoid listening to.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

It's not. Be careful who you listen to on ET. TA was invented before computers. People who are still using it today have been slow or unwilling to change with the times. Day trading one product using TA like mentioned above is unheard of in the modern world. Today edges are so small and you have to spread your bets across multiple assets.

Seeing who the believers of TA are should also give you a sense on who you should avoid listening to.

What are the best alternative strategies?

 

[speedo]

It's not. Be careful who you listen to on ET. TA was invented before computers. People who are still using it today have been slow or unwilling to change with the times. Day trading one product using TA like mentioned above is unheard of in the modern world. Today edges are so small and you have to spread your bets across multiple assets.

Seeing who the believers of TA are should also give you a sense on who you should avoid listening to.

Brief lesson Slick. Price can do three things, go up, go down and go sideways (relative to the time frame you are observing). If you understand price development, you have the POTENTIAL to trade, if you don't you can't. Who the fuck do you think codes the computers. You make a very valid point tho...be careful who you listen to.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

If you followed his strategy you'd have blown out during the worst part of the recession. My point is simple TA stopped working in 1980 when information disseminated to every participant at the speed of light. Worse yet, with robots trading simple "buy after a 3 bar high" will get crushed in the chop. I have taken a lot of wasted hours backtesting simple TA strategies. I have books on them. There may be edge in mashing indicators together until something fits but there is no "buy X when Y happens" strategy, easily parseable by a human, that will produce consistent edge after walk forward and ruin analysis over 15 years of data.



Statistical analysis on futures spreads. In particular commodities with statistically significant seasonal patterns. I also like buying LEAPS on underpriced companies that have good financials.


I use simple technical analysis to gauge entries on my spreads. There is some utility in understanding the psychological bounds of the market. I don't use them for signals. I use it to see if I'm nearing a point I think the market will either support my entry, or I should just stay out.

What is statistical analysis on futures spreads?

What platform do you trade them on?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Brief lesson Slick. Price can do three things, go up, go down and go sideways (relative to the time frame you are observing). If you understand price development, you have the POTENTIAL to trade, if you don't you can't. Who the fuck do you think codes the computers. You make a very valid point tho...be careful who you listen to.

Do you mind trying to post that attachment again?

What is your definition of "price development?"