Best strategies to start trading

[farmerjohn1324]

No. Saying X beats Y is far from implying an edge, as it say nothing about whether X beats Z, Z being a basic buy SPY in 1993 and holding to present. I suspect Z would crush X, certainly on an absolute return basis. On some kind of risk adjusted return basis, who knows.

Also consider...

How many times does the S&P drop 3 consecutive days in one year? Multiply that number by 3 (for the 3 day hold period). That's how many days your money would be working.

Would it even be working 10% of the time?

 

[speedo]

What's the best place to start? Technically (no pun intended), I already know somewhat about different indicators. I just came to the conclusion that looking at them over different time periods would give different results.

To give an example of the types of things I'm currently trying. In my practice Forex account, on 12/6/19, I bet $100,000 fake dollars betting against the USD by buying GBP/USD.

I placed the trade 15 minutes before the monthly unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls were announced. I guessed wrong. The numbers were very good for the US economy and drastically beat expectations. I expected to have a huge loss. But it only lost $3500 before reversing direction. I was about $10,000 in the profit before the UK election results were announced, now I'm $28k in fake profit.

I picked GBP because it has a slim spread with the USD. I was making no prediction on the UK and I couldn't have predicted UK election results anyway.

This all just seems so random.

Let me first say I am a day trader which is something I would not encourage anyone else to do. It requires a demanding combination of strict behavior and real time cognition. Most have the potential to do it but most have the potential to do many things they won't do. From my perspective and I don't speak for anyone else, trading off news is more likely to result in random results. The way I learned to trade was first reading technical books and subscribing to a few learning settings, seminars, online trade rooms and the like. That was adequate to learn the vernacular and basic concepts. The real education came from countless hours of watching price development on charts on various time frames and subsequent testing of strategy based on those observations. I know of no shortcuts.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Let me first say I am a day trader which is something I would not encourage anyone else to do. It requires a demanding combination of strict behavior and real time cognition. Most have the potential to do it but most have the potential to do many things they won't do. From my perspective and I don't speak for anyone else, trading off news is more likely to result in random results. The way I learned to trade was first reading technical books and subscribing to a few learning settings, seminars, online trade rooms and the like. That was adequate to learn the vernacular and basic concepts. The real education came from countless hours of watching price development on charts on various time frames and subsequent testing of strategy based on those observations. I know of no shortcuts.

What are your favorite technical indicators and time frames?

What do you trade?

 

[murray t turtle]

I know it's a great way to lose money. Which is why it's still paper trading. You have about a 47% chance of doubling your money instantly with roulette if you put it all on black. Also a 53% chance of losing it all. High risk = high reward.

I also asked about best ways to hedge risk.

I also mentioned that I have a REAL business making >40% ROI, so the type of returns I'd expect from dumping cash into an index fund wouldn't satisfy me.

And btw, WHAT MATH? I'm very good at math. So what problems should I be figuring out?

Or is trying to "figure out" technical analysis similar to trying to "figure out" alchemy? You could try for centuries with no luck because there is no answer? No way to turn objects into gold? No way to reliably predict future market prices?

%%
OK sounds like >40% ROI is a good gross profit; not many or any do that in public or private markets 10, 20 ......40 years. BUT USa is a land of capital ;so one actually did put a cute package on a pet rock/rocks + make a million bucks.

100% sure I blew up account, actually ground it down;
good thing I learn young about getting rich quick. LOL .WELL, since we like charts, which is simple price data with a picture; compare lotto winners with lotto buyers. Factor in time wa$ted standing in lotto line; I got that idea[ not wasting time in line] from Millionaire Mind, by Dr T Stanley.
[PS another problem with lotto,+ remember I admitted I scratched off free 2 lotto tickets /gift. Guess what happened ????????????????????????????????????????????????? People that buy lotto tickets buy a stupid tax on people that cant do math.
Sounds like you are right on not ''dumping cash in an average index fund'' I don't invest/trade/dump that way also. You may have guess right?? My 2 free lotto tickets were worth nothing...................................................................................One millionaire trend follower doesn't believe in luck; I don't know why he bought a ball team; I prefer shooting ducks, doves, deer,

 

[speedo]

What are your favorite technical indicators and time frames?

What do you trade?

The great majority of my trades are on the ES (S&P emini contract). My time frames vary as to current volatility and range but presently are 1500, 4500 and 13,500 tick (print as to transaction rather than time) charts. I use three moving averages on each tf, 9ema, 30 wma and 90 wma which help me see chart geography and relative momentum across time frames and a double stochastic (stochastic of a stochastic) which act as momentum dynamic filters and NOT as signals themselves.

What I do is conceptually simple, I trade trend pullbacks. Devising a strategy to employ the concept is the hard part. It looks simple enough when presented by people like Connors and Raschke (Holy Grail), Joe Ross (Ross Hook), 1-2-3, fractal trade etc. Making a viable methodology to make money with the concept is the challenge.....again I know no shortcuts. You will not see things they way I do nor will see things the same you will....we are different people with different cognitive maps and different personal behavioral characteristics.

 

[TommyR]

conceptually

 

[farmerjohn1324]

The great majority of my trades are on the ES (S&P emini contract). My time frames vary as to current volatility and range but presently are 1500, 4500 and 13,500 tick (print as to transaction rather than time) charts. I use three moving averages on each tf, 9ema, 30 wma and 90 wma which help me see chart geography and relative momentum across time frames and a double stochastic (stochastic of a stochastic) which act as momentum dynamic filters and NOT as signals themselves.

What I do is conceptually simple, I trade trend pullbacks. Devising a strategy to employ the concept is the hard part. It looks simple enough when presented by people like Connors and Raschke (Holy Grail), Joe Ross (Ross Hook), 1-2-3, fractal trade etc. Making a viable methodology to make money with the concept is the challenge.....again I know no shortcuts. You will not see things they way I do nor will see things the same you will....we are different people with different cognitive maps and different personal behavioral characteristics.

Does the screenshot attached look similar to what you're looking at?

Doing some quick calculations on the frequencies of ticks, that means...

1500 ticks = about 6.5 minutes
4500 = about 20 minutes
13500 = about 1 hour

Is that about right?

What signals do you watch with your moving averages? Do you always buy when a certain event happens?

 

[speedo]

Here are three examples the first two worked and the third failed...yes your time frames are roughly analogous

to my tick settings. It depends on real time volatility, the faster the price action, the more bars printed

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Here are three examples the first two worked and the third failed...yes your time frames are roughly analogous

to my tick settings. It depends on real time volatility, the faster the price action, the more bars printed

I think your attachment didn't work.

On such short timeframes, doesn't the bid-ask spread get in the way?

 

[speedo]

I think your attachment didn't work.

On such short timeframes, doesn't the bid-ask spread get in the way?

The spread on the ES is one tick or quarter point the great majority of the trading day and is irrelevant to what I do.