Best Market Model: Geometric Brownian Motion?

To be sure I won't devote much time to what is certain to be an endless discussion, but here we go for a start. These guys found there was 'some value' within a certain time period. Whether that 'value' can be monetized and if that time period phenomenon still persists I leave to others. I am only addressing a request for continuation (quote 1) and a hint at "non technicality" and falsification (quote 2).

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Foundations of Technical Analysis:Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation
-ANDREW W. LO, HARRY MAMAYSKY, AND JIANG WANG
THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LV, NO. 4 • AUGUST 2000

ABSTRACT
Technical analysis, also known as “charting,” has been a part of financial practice
for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic
scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis.
One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis—
the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes
of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to
technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and we apply
this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the
effectiveness of technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution
of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution—conditioned on specific
technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms—we find
that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental
information and may have some practical value
Problem with this paper, as I see it, if you throw 100 spaghetti at the wall, some are bound to stick.
 
Problem with this paper, as I see it, if you throw 100 spaghetti at the wall, some are bound to stick.


It really depends on the observer. If you believe the universe is essentially random noise then that is what you will find and that is what you have to trade. If you perceive a subtle thread of symmetry in the structure of process and the enfolding of time then that is what you will find and trade. Is light a wave or particle?.....it all depends on how the observer chooses to measure it.
 
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