Best longer term short ideas

Quote from Hedge22:

Good topic, but please post a little commentary with your picks.

Barnes & Noble - I just don't see them being around in a few years for a number of reasons. 1) more people are shifting towards buying physical books online through Amazon. 2) The Kindle/iPad will help shift books sales online, which Barnes will miss out on 3) even if people continue to want to buy physical books in person Walmart/Target/Sears has been in a price war selling $10 books. That means there isn't much of a compelling reason for consumers to use Barnes and Noble.

Sure, someone will bring up the Nook, but I dont see any way that it can compete with the Kindle and the iPad plus the slew of new tablet devices that will follow.


Palm - I have been short this stock for a while. The smart phone market is just too competitive and Palm doesn't offer anything special enough. Even if a smartphone has a new feature, it is at most a couple months ahead of the competition. Elevation Partners could prop this company up though, so I don't see it at zero anytime soon. There are also the constant buy out rumors to deal with.
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I disagree with the Barnes & Nobles short because I believe places like Barnes & Nobles and Borders are becoming destinations for people to come and meet, drink coffee, buy books, magazines, etc. Amazon certainly has put a dent in the number of bookstores but I think the Amazon effect has already occurred in the bookstore business. Wal-Mart is not a big deal because the selection is small compared to a real bookstore.

iPad, Kindle, etc. is NOT going to put bookstores out of business. When you think about it, you have to buy a lot of books to justify the cost of the iPad. I personally think the prices of digital book versions are too high. Also, factor in that you will have to replace one of these devices every couple of years when it breaks for a couple hundred bucks. I think a lot of people are going to realize the iPad/Kindle is not going to be the good deal they thought it was. However, after saying that, I think we will see an increase in use of SmartPhones as book readers. They are a smaller, handier size and cost nothing extra since you already have one of these phones because it's a cell phone. I have been reading digital books on my iPhone and if you count my old PalmPilot for nearly 10 years. Reading digital books will never replace my bookshelf.

I also took a look at the financials on this one and I don't see any reason to short them there either. P/E is around 15. They are profitable. No extreme debt load. I think for shorts we should be more focused on companies that are losing money and/or have huge debt loads.
 
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