Best indicators to guess tops/bottoms; determine overbought/oversold areas

kut2k2 · Mar 12, 2006

Quote from easyrider:

Really curious where you got your stats from for this comment. I was not aware that this was the case.

Read Jack Schwager's Market Wizard books. Most of those success stories are about trend followers.

Machron · Mar 12, 2006

reno4nook,

When is a reversal "obvious"?

MACHRON

Champion · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from Lamont_C:

It's not an indicator. It's simply data, like price. Volume of advancers. Volume of decliners.

As for experience, I can recall only two false signals since 1990 (Nasdaq data before then is sketchy).

Thanks for your help.
I looked for this data.
At stockcharts.com I put in $NYUD for the chart which is daily only.
Is it live there? Is there another source for avdvd for the NYSE?

WmWaster · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from kut2k2:

This is as it should be. Just as trend indicators cannot predict tops and bottoms, counter-trend indicators (aka overbought / oversold indicators) cannot handle trends adequately.

Most successful TA traders are trend followers, not counter-trenders. So you might want to re-evaluate your approach to TA. Or, rather than asking for someone here to just hand you a boffo OB/OS indicator, you can design your own and apply it. This involves the scary notions of starting from first principles, and doing research to see what's come before (and failed), and being original in your design of a new indicator. Not an easy task, but potentially rewarding in ways you haven't thought of yet. Good luck.

Why not do both?
Trading markets - bottom/top pickers!
Trending markets - trend followers!

whitster · Mar 14, 2006

you don;t look to "indicators" to find tops bottoms.

you look to support/resistance

indicators AT BEST help you confirm, but they are lagging, and generally weak (for intraday trading)

kut2k2 · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from WmWaster:

Why not do both?
Trading markets - bottom/top pickers!
Trending markets - trend followers!

Sure, there's lots of support for that idea. I don't know how successful it is, but I guess that depends primarily on how well you can distinguish trend from chop. There're other threads in this forum dealing with that very subject.

Good trading.

ozzy · Mar 14, 2006

I use the moon to determine bottoms and the sun for tops.

Good Luck.

illiquid · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from Machron:

When is a reversal "obvious"?

When the tire treads are tattooed on your forehead?

Walther · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from kut2k2:

Sure, there's lots of support for that idea. I don't know how successful it is,
/B]

Very successful . And not that complicated actually .

murray t turtle · Mar 14, 2006

Quote from WmWaster:

Hi.
I need something to to guess tops/bottoms; determine overbought/oversold areas
I realise there're many indicators available to do the tasks I want.
But I just don't know which one I should use. There's just too many.
I don't know how to make an informed choice.

How about you?
What do you use to do the tasks?
And why?

Thank you!

================

Wmwas
Best=long & short experience/observation,.especially in a few stocks/derivatives. Havent found a/d to do that well for me, each to his own

Williams %R,
CCI, could help shorten the process some.

Best to do bottom fishing in a farm pond

I looked & recieved instruction;
I looked & learned a lesson-Solomon ,trader king