Hi brownsfan.
Yes. You are right. What I said is that this indicator, is as far as I know, the only indicator I found on the web that is not lagging. It predicts the market path and updates it every 15 minutes.
As you can imagine, it is not always 100% accurate, but I"ve been trading it for some time, and it does predict. Obviously some times, especially on announcement days, it is not very accurate, but it's something you can by pass with good money management.
I've seen traders tend not to believe that markets are predictable, still there are many books and science that show the opposite.
With respect to your mirror comparison, I'd like to comment one example that I read on The Predictors, by Thomas Bass, (recommended for the newbie). Basically, if your statement was correct, that you can not predict the future based on past information, lets look at a base ball path. A player's mind is always predicting the future path of the ball, based on past information (past trajectory), and places his hand in the middle and catches. He is predicting, the future path, within certain restriction. Clearly the variables that affect a linear dynamic like the ball, are simpler than the ones that affect the non-linear dynamics of the market. But that, does not make it unpredictable, it just make it unpredictable for the human mind, but not if you use computer power.
For example, check this chart, is from Dec 22, 2005.
This prediction was computed at 12:15 (Where the black line splits from the red.) The red line is the market, the black is the prediction.
I've seen this fitting quality many times. So. What do you think, is the market predictable?
I'll look for more charts and send them later.
Take care. !
Quote from brownsfan019:
Dan - I glanced at that website, but by this comment you are saying you have found the first and only indicator out there that uses past information to predict the future consistently. Perhaps an indicator or 2 inside of a trading system with rules and such is a different story, but to say this is an indicator that is not lagging would mean it foresees into the future somehow...
The point being all indicators use information that already happened to attempt to provide an idea of where the future is going. Nothing like trying to drive forward by only looking at your rear view mirror.
I hope that makes sense, esp for our newbie trader here as he goes out looking for the holy grail.
