Best hedge against market drop

This could also help. Nice analysis from BoA: The Cheapest Hedges For A Systemic Collapse
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ow-here-are-cheapest-hedges-systemic-collapse

Very interesting article!


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And while the above information is great, and quite valuable, it does beg a simple question: if indeed everything were to crash tomorrow (or the day after) in a systemic collapse that drags down the entire asset universe, then while any of the above listed puts will clearly soar in value, just who will be there on the other side, either to sell them to or at exercise time? After all, the crashes envisioned above guarantee that no banks and counterparties would be left standing.

Which begs the question: is, paradoxically, the best crash hedge not buying but selling puts and collecting the premium now before it all goes to hell? After all if everything collapses, who will be there to enforce contracts and demand that you repay your counterparty, especially if the Fed - unlike in 2008 - does not come to bail you and everyone else out?

Finally, if and when contracts are no longer observed, the only "hedges" left, whether cheap or not, will not be of the paper variety but only the physical type.
 
I want to hedge against a drop in the S&P from today vs. about 9 months from now. For every 1% drop from today, I want $1000 protection. So in approx. 9 months if the S&P is down 50% from today I need $50,000 coverage, if its down 10% from today i want $10,000 coverage, etc. What would give me the best protection for the least cost?

You can have such a downside protection even for free:
Sell 1 ATM Call and Buy 1 ATM Put

You can also have a similar upside 'protection' for free:
Buy 1 ATM Call and Sell 1 ATM Put

But, unfortunately you can't have both at the same time for free :)

(Of course in your special case (1% == $1000) adjust the number of contracts accordingly
by taking also the current spot value into the calculation...)
 
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  • Could you summarize that?
  • I couldn't make sense of any of it.


:)
O GUru;

I think you made a good point on that BAC article.LOL
Having said that- thanks for the article But i assure you NONE[ no one with any sense] thinks BAC was the first to connect FED moves with market drops or market moves-uptrends.LOL-LOL

One silver deal sold me a sort of silverbook... , used- it said'' 1987 silver''. Elites can most likely improve what i just noted, but i like mine better than BAC . I do like some of BAC ads[NOT a stock tip or prediction]

One elite said'' selling is a good hedge-true'' most likely talking liquid markets - a market maker warned ''2, 0 0 0 stocks are hard to hedge.''Word to wise; amen.....
 
Last month I heard an old cliche'........'Sell in May and go away !' Based on all the news I heard this week about the finance icons suggesting a major drop is imminent, it sounds like good advice.
 
I have a sound belief based on my back testing that profitable trades occur quickly. Since long term system is so often wrong in futures positions, I need short term insurance, so I hedge and hedges are only kept for so many days.

But for hedging long term basis, this will be much more expensive if buying options close to current prices and keeping them till expiration, matter of fact, hedging could cost more than whatever you made if market doesn't drop quickly.
 
I want to hedge against a drop in the S&P from today vs. about 9 months from now. For every 1% drop from today, I want $1000 protection. So in approx. 9 months if the S&P is down 50% from today I need $50,000 coverage, if its down 10% from today i want $10,000 coverage, etc. What would give me the best protection for the least cost?

Why just not use plain old stop loss?
 
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