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Best Currency to Store under Mattress for the Next 6-12 months?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Gold and the Swiss Franc have rallied substantially so you'd be chasing, and based on historical measures, your buying too high for the long-term... reversion to the mean regardless how bleak the fundamentals look. The only way this would be a safe buy is if there is a international economic paradigm shift. Its possible but too difficult to predict imo.
I don't think any fiat currency or even a metal is worth much. Money can be anything. There's not really much intrinsic value in gold... it's just rare and robust to the environment. But in terms of using it for industry there are a lot more significant alternatives... aka crude oil.
Aside just gold and silver as well as other metals, commodities in general have rallied substantially. I do think that others are safer than the much hyped metals, including crude and ags such as fertilizers. It may be a crazy suggestion but the Canadian Dollar or Brazilian Real may be a decent idea if you don't want to take hold of physical oil and other products into your home. The Australian Dollar and South African currency are too dependent on metals.
I also hate the USD but there seems to be too much pessimism about it... If this Aug situation turns out to actually be an event I will wait for the several months of pukage and then consider getting long around November.
I don't think any fiat currency or even a metal is worth much. Money can be anything. There's not really much intrinsic value in gold... it's just rare and robust to the environment. But in terms of using it for industry there are a lot more significant alternatives... aka crude oil.
Aside just gold and silver as well as other metals, commodities in general have rallied substantially. I do think that others are safer than the much hyped metals, including crude and ags such as fertilizers. It may be a crazy suggestion but the Canadian Dollar or Brazilian Real may be a decent idea if you don't want to take hold of physical oil and other products into your home. The Australian Dollar and South African currency are too dependent on metals.
I also hate the USD but there seems to be too much pessimism about it... If this Aug situation turns out to actually be an event I will wait for the several months of pukage and then consider getting long around November.
If it's a lot of money I wouldn't recommend a single currency. I'd say to diversify.
Park 1/3 in a risk currency: YEN or CHF
Park 1/3 in a commodity bloc: AUD
Park 1/3 in EUR or USD
Between the EUR and USD, I'd say the EUR. I think there's too many "uncertainty" factors facing the U.S. over the next 12 months. Namely...
1.) The debt ceiling debate which is far from resolved and can be dragged out over the next year.
2.) S&P Downgrade
3.) The possibility of QE3.
4.) Elections
5.) No growth in U.S. versus slowing growth around the world.
6.) Obama
As for the Euro, I think the debt crisis of the PIIGS is slowly getting worked out. However I believe it's still going to remain an issue over the next year, being dragged out slowly.
I haven't had a chance to hear about some of the resolutions/powers to be adopted by the EU today but it sounds like there's some new measures to be implemented to handle the Greek debt as well as that of Spain and Italy. All in all the EU has many more options to handle it's problems from austerity, to letting a few small countries default, to establishment of EU backed "euro bonds". The U.S is just plain f&@#ed. IMHO
Park 1/3 in a risk currency: YEN or CHF
Park 1/3 in a commodity bloc: AUD
Park 1/3 in EUR or USD
Between the EUR and USD, I'd say the EUR. I think there's too many "uncertainty" factors facing the U.S. over the next 12 months. Namely...
1.) The debt ceiling debate which is far from resolved and can be dragged out over the next year.
2.) S&P Downgrade
3.) The possibility of QE3.
4.) Elections
5.) No growth in U.S. versus slowing growth around the world.
6.) Obama
As for the Euro, I think the debt crisis of the PIIGS is slowly getting worked out. However I believe it's still going to remain an issue over the next year, being dragged out slowly.
I haven't had a chance to hear about some of the resolutions/powers to be adopted by the EU today but it sounds like there's some new measures to be implemented to handle the Greek debt as well as that of Spain and Italy. All in all the EU has many more options to handle it's problems from austerity, to letting a few small countries default, to establishment of EU backed "euro bonds". The U.S is just plain f&@#ed. IMHO
Quote from zdreg:
the poll is imperfectly constructed. it should have include other. please post.
if Mods could add "Other" that would be great!
I forgot to mention that I don't have enough knowledge of currencies to make a more comprehensive list so please add your other choices in the thread if you want to discuss them. .
Quote from shortie:
A friend, who lives in a country without a stable currency, asks me where to park his money for the next 6-12 months. He is uncertain about the currency choice. I am pretty confident that he will park the money under his mattress since he does not trust the banks.
short term safekeeping: usd, easiest and liquid currency in the world to get anything.
long term value: chinese yuan, already hit <6.5 per usd. Was 8 just a few years ago. It only go up given the inflation situation in the dollar and chinese govt's obsession at controlling the yuan/inflation. Should hit 6 by next year end.
here is the good one, holds value extremely well..unfortunately can be seized by the US gvt at any time w\o giving the owner a penny..
Rare 'Double Eagle' Gold Coins Ruled Property of U.S., Not Collector's Family
http://abcnews.go.com/US/ten-rare-gold-coins-property-us-treasury-jury/story?id=14124595
Rare 'Double Eagle' Gold Coins Ruled Property of U.S., Not Collector's Family
http://abcnews.go.com/US/ten-rare-gold-coins-property-us-treasury-jury/story?id=14124595