The following is an email I received from BCS. Instead of freely helping their customers understand and better benifit from their investment by teaching them, they want to milk them further by getting them to suscribe to their news letter.
Vol. 1 # 1 Aug. 1, 2008
Have you all been hearing that we are in a recession? What Recession?
Where? Certainly not at Best Choice... We just hired 10 new sales
people!!! Our users are making Money....
Welcome to the inaugural free copy of the Best Choice Software news
letter. This is the first issue of a monthly advisory subscription. The
purpose of this service is keep people informed on what traders are doing
to make money using Best Choice Software.
The letter will be divided into 5 parts each month. I donââ¬â¢t want to
waste time so it will be clear and concise. It will be about making you
a better Best Choice Software trader and making money. Here is the
format:
1) The past Monthââ¬â¢s winning trade we alerted you to and how we traded
it.
2) Important and timely commentary of events can that affect us.
3) Methods from our most successful users.
4) Suggested trades for the Month ahead.
5) Best Choice Training
There will always be some space for reader questions, concerns, and
room for improvement. We will constantly strive to improve our service to
make YOU more successful.
Letââ¬â¢s look at the ââ¬ÅAmazing Googleââ¬Â
1) As of Mid- July, our software (through the Seasonal-Cycle charts)
alerted us to the Google (GOOG) tradeââ¬Â¦ The info on GOOG, was to go
short July 19 thru Aug 2. Based on the past history of Goog it went down 4
times in the last 4 years, meaning it repeated 100% of the time and it
had a Rating 4.3, (very good). This signal was picked up by most of
us, and acted upon. What was different this year and needs to be talked
about is the earnings date was 2 days EARLY this year. As Pete has told
you before, the earnings announcement date changes year to year. You
have to keep on top of this on your own, through either earning.com or
briefing.com. We will alert you of such event changes thru this
Newsletter from now on.
What was amazing about the GOOG trade this year is that prior to the
trade, the Market had been UP BIG 2 days in a row. We were willing to bet
on a big counter move and we told you about it in advance. All you
needed to do was look on the Linear chart (6 month setting) and see the
stock was in the middle and should move down to the bottom yellow line
which is near 490 and thatââ¬â¢s where you can safely buy the Put. We
always recommend going out 1 Month for safety but some members bought the
Julyââ¬â¢s and did just fine. Average gains were not as good as in years
past. I personally bought the Aug 440ââ¬â¢s (Puts) the day before right at
3:55 when the stock was 540 and sold them the next day when GOOG was
490 for a quick 25% gain. Nice trade! I canââ¬â¢t wait for the same
opportunity next year (or next Month), when we go GOOG Again.
2). Watch your Bank Account! Be aware of what happened to IndyMac Bank
in California recently. The bank was seized by federal regulators and
10,000 depositors with balances over $100,000 had their funds in
jeopardy.
FDIC only insures $100,000 per name. If you have more than $100,000 in
a single person savings account, the balance above $100,000 is not
insured. CNN reported that the IndyMac customers would receive half of
their money over the $100,000 limit and the remainder is tied up and
subject to the resolution of the bank.
You can either open a joint account with any family member, which will
increase your insurance by an amount of $100,000 per family member, or
you can open accounts in multiple banks.
Watch your Business checking account! They are insured only for the
$100,000. These are really dangerous times and Banks are not going to
notify you that they are in trouble. Youââ¬â¢ll find out when you go there
and the doors are locked and thereââ¬â¢s a long line out front. Take
protective actions NOW. I believe we are only in the third inning of this
miserable crisis.
3) Trader Inputs
Watch the VIX (Volatility Index) and set your online brokerage account
up with some of George Leaââ¬â¢s chart indicators (have you seen the
George Lea DVD yet? If not, call us). These indicators will alert you to a
break out (up or down) of the stock or option. George notes the VIX on
May 19 was starting to bottom (look at the MACD) and on May 23 did
indeed turn back up, signaling a change of direction for the Market. You
could have at that point bought Puts on any Market ETF (exchange traded
fund)ââ¬Â¦ DIA, (Dow Industrial Average), for example. The VIX on that
day broke out to the upside on the chart indicators. It was easy to
follow and see. When the VIX turned up decisively, it was time to turn your
attention to the ââ¬Åweak sistersââ¬Â of the Marketââ¬Â¦ currently (and
obviously) the Financial stocks.
A quick check of Best Choice Software showed decaying price patterns on
the Linear charts (the 3 yellow lines) for all banks and brokers,
Citibank, Merrill Lynch, for example. You could have chosen any one of them
and bought the puts, with a tight stop, and had an easy ride. Go back
and study this time in history.
We think we are approaching such a watershed again right now, only in
the opposite directionââ¬Â¦ (Up in the market, down in the VIXââ¬Â¦) Watch
for the Moving Average cross overââ¬â¢s ââ¬ÅGeorge Leaââ¬Â style. (Again,
call the office if you donââ¬â¢t know what I mean by thisââ¬Â¦)
Further, for the month(s) ahead, it looks like the Market is testing a
bottom. Look at DIA. 3 Month, daily chart, DIA broke out on July 21 @
112.50. The 10 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the
20 day Simple Moving Average. The MACD (which is an indicator of change
of direction) is coming up and Williams % R (an oscillator which moves
first, telling change of direction) is above -25. The DIA has broken
above a trend line. The VIX on Best Choice software (6 months linear) has
spiked and is definitely in a downtrend.
The smart, Best Choice users are buying some stocks. The options are
still decaying but some stocks are in an up-trend. Example: George Lea
bought Dry Ships (DRYS), Walter Industries (WLT), and James River Coal
(JRCC). Take Chilean coal producer, SQM as an example, which he bought
also. It bottomed on July 3, tested again on July 8 & 16, all higher
lows. On a 6 month, daily the 50 DMA (day moving average) is definitely
acting as support & SQM price is going up making higher lows, the MACD
(moving average) has flattened out and is indeed going up from a way
oversold -2 and the Williams %R is testing the -75. All we need now is for
SQM to break out on the 10 day, hourly charts like it did July 16th, @
$42.
On the Best Choice software, we have a beautiful Seasonal long in Aug,
going into earnings. This stock should go up and we will buy the calls.
WLT, DRYS & CME are three more candidates, setting up just like above.
Study them for yourselves, wait for confirmation and catch the move
up.
In future editions we will discuss the ramifications of MACD, Williams
%R, simple and exponential moving averages for those who have not had
that much experience using them.
4) The Best ways to play the expected moveââ¬Â¦
The Google trade taught us that it was best to stay only 4 to 5 strike
levels out of the money (OTM) for either July or Aug. Google is one
play that will allow you to go with July options, even with 1 day of life
left. With GOOG, it only takes one day! See last April 16, for another
amazing example. Fun, to be sure, we made a lot of dough then too.
5) We have had many calls from owners lately asking for a good search
criteria for a Bear Market. Since, as many of you believe, we are in for
an extended period of declining prices, here is a good Wizard search:
Since earnings (or lack of) still do drive stock prices, search for
stocks over $15 a share, on all exchanges, with earnings for 1 year MINUS
30%, price growth for 1 year, MINUS 40%, options, of course, with Leaps
and heavy volume, over 700,000. You want to find stocks that the
Institutions are dumping. This search should serve you well in the upcoming
and ongoing Recession, where companies will be selling less of whatever
they make and therefore making less money.
Upcoming trades are:
DECK-long 7/23 to 8/04 80%, 5.2 Ratingââ¬Â¦ earnings play
GOOG-long 9/08 to 9/23 100% 6.8 ratingââ¬Â¦ good Linear setting up
DRYS- long 7/30 to 8/13 100% 12 Ratingââ¬Â¦ good Linear also, watch for
the ââ¬ÅGLââ¬Â chart breakout.
SQM-long in Aug. Seasonal into earnings
In the next issue we will discuss all the different ways to play the
expected move of a stock and the worst ways to do so.
We hope you found this news letter informative. It will even get
better, issue after issue. We want everyone to enjoy making great profits in
the markets.
After this first free edition, you may continue to receive future
editions for only $49 per quarter for the next three issues or $195 per
year. Thatââ¬â¢s about $.50 cents per day; Less than a cup of coffee. Your
profit returns could be exceptional. This introductory price is only good
through September.
Sign up now by calling our office at 941-747-5858.
All the Best,
Scott Macbeth
Editor
941-747-5858
