You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Best Choice Software www.bestchoice.com
- Thread starter ahollybair
- Start date
I'm a BC trial user and this is the first time I logged into ET board, and wanted to offer some thoughts. And also possibly to get critics to reconsider their assumptions.
One assumption I read in the chat thread is that multiple strike movements rarely happen. Think about this, if a stock is priced above $85 and exhibits $20+swings then multiple strike gains become the norm, not the exception. How many strikes does BIDU swing thru in one year?
The BC Wizard tools help prospect for high probability winners by incorporating both trend and seasonality cycles. Good candidates have high price, increasing earnings and wide price swings.
___________________________________________________
Another assumption is that seasonality is common and is the same or not to be trusted to be of value.
Re the NCR eTrade recommendation mentioned: Several readers asked what BC said for the trade.
Over the May 24-June 26 period, BC Seasonality shows the lowest score for entering a direction trade with a Rating = 0.
BC contains a tools to evaluate the exact date range recommended, it shows Rating 0, Avg SHORT profit = - 0.3% and gains in 6/10 years.
Also, the seasonality chart tops exactly during this time period. i.e. can't imagine why you'd enter long trade. (Actual SHORT gain 3% for 2008 )
If you use the BC wizard it shows that the best statistically consistent time to trade, during April-July is 5/3-5/18 having averaged a historical 3.2 % gain. (The actual 2008 gain was 4% for a LONG) However, the quality rating was also very low and a trade wouldn't be recommended.
So, the NCR trade had nothing to do with seasonality and if anything, BC would rate this as an unreliable SHORT.
Jack
One assumption I read in the chat thread is that multiple strike movements rarely happen. Think about this, if a stock is priced above $85 and exhibits $20+swings then multiple strike gains become the norm, not the exception. How many strikes does BIDU swing thru in one year?
The BC Wizard tools help prospect for high probability winners by incorporating both trend and seasonality cycles. Good candidates have high price, increasing earnings and wide price swings.
___________________________________________________
Another assumption is that seasonality is common and is the same or not to be trusted to be of value.
Re the NCR eTrade recommendation mentioned: Several readers asked what BC said for the trade.
Over the May 24-June 26 period, BC Seasonality shows the lowest score for entering a direction trade with a Rating = 0.
BC contains a tools to evaluate the exact date range recommended, it shows Rating 0, Avg SHORT profit = - 0.3% and gains in 6/10 years.
Also, the seasonality chart tops exactly during this time period. i.e. can't imagine why you'd enter long trade. (Actual SHORT gain 3% for 2008 )
If you use the BC wizard it shows that the best statistically consistent time to trade, during April-July is 5/3-5/18 having averaged a historical 3.2 % gain. (The actual 2008 gain was 4% for a LONG) However, the quality rating was also very low and a trade wouldn't be recommended.
So, the NCR trade had nothing to do with seasonality and if anything, BC would rate this as an unreliable SHORT.
Jack
Quote from bctrader:
btw -- the sort of trades that this software allows you to find is very similar to the "Trade Ideas" that e*trade has on their site ..
e*trade will highlight a recurring event (one per day), they give you the percentage of recurrence (ie: 7/8 times this has happened), the event begin/end date, and an expected price change.
for example, their current event is NCR
the event is the 50MA crossing over the 200MA,
the end of the event is june 26th and the expected end price is about of $27.32 ..
given this info, i think you'd be foolish to just buy without considering other information before entering the trade, in my opinion, the technichals.
.. the chart looks good, support at 20MA (and on a trendline), with STO crossing below 20..
how would you judge entering this trade? .. (would you enter it at all?)
I had a goog trade put in that I lost about 25% on. The next trade BCS indicated was a GOOG put entering on 7-19 & closing on 8-2. I felt the overall direction of the market is down so I entered the GOOG put GOPTB about a week ago @.60 (for JOAB's benefit it was 5 puts bought on 7-9). I sold 2 today @1.95 to cover my cost with a little extra.
I now have 3 puts for free. I expect to hold them to 8-1. I'll report back when I sell them ( I do have a $7 sell order in now just in case I'm not around and there is a strong down day, so I will be satisfied if I'm sold out earlier).
I now have 3 puts for free. I expect to hold them to 8-1. I'll report back when I sell them ( I do have a $7 sell order in now just in case I'm not around and there is a strong down day, so I will be satisfied if I'm sold out earlier).
It is interesting to see the trades unfold for the various users of BCS. What is intriging is that the principals of this software decided to scoot, when asked to post the trading metrics for their software. Not a peek out of them. Either arrogant or scared of deflating their money making " scam " or both.
These posting of users will go a long ways towards reveling their claims. Many thanks to the trial users for their service to the rest of us. Looking forward to the posting of your ongoing experiences.
These posting of users will go a long ways towards reveling their claims. Many thanks to the trial users for their service to the rest of us. Looking forward to the posting of your ongoing experiences.
Quote from aaronsales:
I had a goog trade put in that I lost about 25% on. The next trade BCS indicated was a GOOG put entering on 7-19 & closing on 8-2. I felt the overall direction of the market is down so I entered the GOOG put GOPTB about a week ago @.60 (for JOAB's benefit it was 5 puts bought on 7-9). I sold 2 today @1.95 to cover my cost with a little extra.
I now have 3 puts for free. I expect to hold them to 8-1. I'll report back when I sell them ( I do have a $7 sell order in now just in case I'm not around and there is a strong down day, so I will be satisfied if I'm sold out earlier).
NOTHING any of you say will be taken seriously unless posted before the fact.
Save us all the effort of reading because I GUARANTEE you the software is useless.
Quote from Joab:
NOTHING any of you say will be taken seriously unless posted before the fact.
Save us all the effort of reading because I GUARANTEE you the software is useless.
I don't take anything my 5 year old says seriously either. You continue to act like a baby and can't take any responsibility for your own actions or lack there of.
I don't care if you believe me. I've telegraphed my intentions earlier, and have told you what my actions have been. I've even told you when I intend to sell based on what BCS indicated to me. So readers can decide if the moves were good or not.
I have no connection with BCS, I don't own the software, I get my info from a users group I attend. If I find I'm making better trades with it than without it, then I'll buy.
Joab you have shown you are too blinded by your rage to offer any significant opinion. Keep posting though, I like calling you a baby.
Oh and I'll help you with your next post to me. "Eat Sh*t and Die!" I've found those type of responses truly inspiring. Lot's of thought goes into them I'm sure.
So you decided to limit your first target gains to 300%, If the model is anything close to accurate, the 6% target could drop GOOG into 490 range, that's $20 ITM on a $60 cost basis. Wonder what % that is........ Best of luck on that play.
Naysayer in me didn't believe in seasonality of stuff like browsers, so I googled "GOOG Seasonality" and found an interesting article. Seasonality Is Significant
We were not particularly surprised to learn that advertisers appear to come and go from the
marketplace fairly rapidly, likely due to seasonality, marketing budget considerations, and the
competitive dynamics of each market within paid search. The most notable seasonal swings in the
advertiser count are the increases in March and July and a meaningful drop in June. Regarding the
March increase, we suspect that the marketing of items such as spring and summer apparel, travel,
and Motherâs Day gifts and a seasonal spike in real estate related marketing helped boost advertiser
counts. etc. Remember earnings are for 2Q and if interested, you can read the rest in the following. article http://www.williamblair.com/documents/adgooroo0807.pdf
Source: AdGooroo
Naysayer in me didn't believe in seasonality of stuff like browsers, so I googled "GOOG Seasonality" and found an interesting article. Seasonality Is Significant
We were not particularly surprised to learn that advertisers appear to come and go from the
marketplace fairly rapidly, likely due to seasonality, marketing budget considerations, and the
competitive dynamics of each market within paid search. The most notable seasonal swings in the
advertiser count are the increases in March and July and a meaningful drop in June. Regarding the
March increase, we suspect that the marketing of items such as spring and summer apparel, travel,
and Motherâs Day gifts and a seasonal spike in real estate related marketing helped boost advertiser
counts. etc. Remember earnings are for 2Q and if interested, you can read the rest in the following. article http://www.williamblair.com/documents/adgooroo0807.pdf
Source: AdGooroo
Quote from aaronsales:
I had a goog trade put in that I lost about 25% on. The next trade BCS indicated was a GOOG put entering on 7-19 & closing on 8-2. I felt the overall direction of the market is down so I entered the GOOG put GOPTB about a week ago @.60 (for JOAB's benefit it was 5 puts bought on 7-9). I sold 2 today @1.95 to cover my cost with a little extra.
I now have 3 puts for free. I expect to hold them to 8-1. I'll report back when I sell them ( I do have a $7 sell order in now just in case I'm not around and there is a strong down day, so I will be satisfied if I'm sold out earlier).