I agree with Joab, this is pure curve fitting. But these guys' clients would'nt know what curve fitting is.
Until Felton trading and the new currency brokers came along to the New York Traders Expo last year, these guys (Best Choice) got my vote for the cheesiest outfit there. Real snakeoil.
I stopped by their booth a few times just for the entertainment of watching mostly retirees getting sucked in by the sales pitch.
They were doing then what this Hoyt guy is doing here, i.e. making claims about winning 10x your money on a trade using options. Options are leveraged instruments and far out of the money options are highly leveraged so yes you have a small chance of a 10 bagger and and even bigger chance of a 100% loss on that type of trade. Signal or no signal. It's a completely unethical claim to make.
Seasonality is a well known anomaly along with dozens of others but it's not a sufficient edge on it's own IMO. An excel spreadsheet and a decent price database (free from Yahoo) and a rudimentary understanding of statistics is what is needed to measure it (and much else beyond) not some overpriced black box-software.
Until Felton trading and the new currency brokers came along to the New York Traders Expo last year, these guys (Best Choice) got my vote for the cheesiest outfit there. Real snakeoil.
I stopped by their booth a few times just for the entertainment of watching mostly retirees getting sucked in by the sales pitch.
They were doing then what this Hoyt guy is doing here, i.e. making claims about winning 10x your money on a trade using options. Options are leveraged instruments and far out of the money options are highly leveraged so yes you have a small chance of a 10 bagger and and even bigger chance of a 100% loss on that type of trade. Signal or no signal. It's a completely unethical claim to make.
Seasonality is a well known anomaly along with dozens of others but it's not a sufficient edge on it's own IMO. An excel spreadsheet and a decent price database (free from Yahoo) and a rudimentary understanding of statistics is what is needed to measure it (and much else beyond) not some overpriced black box-software.


