Bern's Experiment

[Bern]

If you are seeing the long term LOLR as up, then yes it would make sense to buy at a cheaper price once Price Reverses off the Range bottom. The buys up top in a slow market are often choppy. In my experience, it's better to buy at S or wait for the BO+ret. Only time I see value in buying before the BO is when price races to Range boundary, causing some fear for the shorts and attracting BO longs. Buying before the BO folks gives you some breathing space and you can scratch if the BO does not follow through.

Yes, I agree. Thanks.

The moment price rejected the bottom of the range, I was seeing the LOLR as up for the 1m chart, that is my main chart for displaying price activity. But I viewed the LOLR as up also in all bar intervals from 5min till 240 and even D. Not that I would use them in this context and condition a long trade to the LOLR in these bar intervals, but I think they were all clearly pointing up.

Anyway, what you comment makes perfect sense and I appreciate your post.

 

[k p]

Any thoughts about these?

I like your reasons for your trades. The best one is clearly now at 4. After the session is done, I like to look at what the best trade is. Often, the best trades means that lots of decisions later on don't have to be made.

In hindsight, we have a few reasons for why 4 is good. First is the rejection of going lower after the news. The thrust up wasn't as strong as what I usually see around major news announcements, but when we can't go lower, going higher seems like the ticket. Next we still have the LOLR being up for the past few days. The upper boundary of 3600 as we identified in prep should be a good magnet for price to come. We also have quite a bit of support on the way down at many levels.

Now of course if I knew all this at the time I would have gone long as well, but in post this sure looks like the best trade. We then wouldn't have to so much worry about the trading range that formed up above. Maybe we would get stopped out, at at least having made a few points is a good position to be in.

 

[niko]

140422 post

.....(3). I did not give it too much room and when it came back failing to break the high of the day I basically scratched it...

.....Any thoughts about these?

Why not reenter?

 

[Bern]

Why not reenter?

I always follow a rule that says to do not enter trades 5 min prior to important news releases. There, when I was stopped it was 08:53 CT and I hesitated for 2 reasons: first because it was close to the data release and second, and maybe the main reason, because I still have not articulated well defined rules about reentries. Too much hesitation....

Then I was already in the 5 in window and in a small consolidation (maybe waiting for the news).

As I mentioned (and maybe your were alluding to it in your question?), what I think I missed is the entry after the mini consolidation fakeout and reject-upthrust that followed the news, at the area marked with the first yellow circle. There I hesitated and it was already gone....

I think this shows that it would be in my own interest to work defining rules and/or guidelines for reentries.

Thanks.

 

[Bern]

I am going on a short vacation till next Thursday and I will not post here till then.

 

[niko]

I always follow a rule that says to do not enter trades 5 min prior to important news releases. There, when I was stopped it was 08:53 CT and I hesitated for 2 reasons: first because it was close to the data release and second, and maybe the main reason, because I still have not articulated well defined rules about reentries. Too much hesitation....

Then I was already in the 5 in window and in a small consolidation (maybe waiting for the news).

As I mentioned (and maybe your were alluding to it in your question?), what I think I missed is the entry after the mini consolidation fakeout and reject-upthrust that followed the news, at the area marked with the first yellow circle. There I hesitated and it was already gone....

I think this shows that it would be in my own interest to work defining rules and/or guidelines for reentries.

Thanks.

I dont pay much attention if any to news, you can see them in PA and then check out why is the market dull around 9:58 or 8:27 .

If you are gonna trade PA, news will just distract you, why not better take a look at how the market behaves when the news are released, does it trend in an orderly manner or does it just goes into crazy wide range chop. Then after you have done your PA analysis you can define if the "not trading during news" is the way to go.

 

[Bern]

I dont pay much attention if any to news, you can see them in PA and then check out why is the market dull around 9:58 or 8:27 .

If you are gonna trade PA, news will just distract you, why not better take a look at how the market behaves when the news are released, does it trend in an orderly manner or does it just goes into crazy wide range chop. Then after you have done your PA analysis you can define if the "not trading during news" is the way to go.

Niko, I have to disagree with you.

What you express is something that I have read and heard for years and I find overly simplistic if it is not well nuanced . What you say sounds nice on the surface but I find that you are mixing things in a dangerous way (for your wallet).

I do not pay attention to news like for example trying to know what was the reason for a certain price movement or action in the market. Everything is discounted already and included in price and I try to follow price action.

I do not pay attention to news like for example trying to guess what will the market do after certain news or what will the market do if certain news happen.

But I will never never trade just before important, potentially market moving, news releases that participants are waiting for. That is drawn from my experience observing the markets for some years, although I do not pretend it to be the only way one can trade.

Then, for example, I will never trade just before a FOMC announcement or an Unemployment Report to name two major reports, but I could trade, if price action dictates it, just before some minor reports . Entering a trade just before any major news release is a big no in my book of rules and I still have not found evidence to reconsider breaking this rule.

Sorry for my English, I hope that this is clear and does not sound rude (not my intention)

 

[niko]

Niko, I have to disagree with you.

What you express is something that I have read and heard for years and I find overly simplistic if it is not well nuanced . What you say sounds nice on the surface but I find that you are mixing things in a dangerous way (for your wallet).

I do not pay attention to news like for example trying to know what was the reason for a certain price movement or action in the market. Everything is discounted already and included in price and I try to follow price action.

I do not pay attention to news like for example trying to guess what will the market do after certain news or what will the market do if certain news happen.

But I will never never trade just before important, potentially market moving, news releases that participants are waiting for. That is drawn from my experience observing the markets for some years, although I do not pretend it to be the only way one can trade.

Then, for example, I will never trade just before a FOMC announcement or an Unemployment Report to name two major reports, but I could trade, if price action dictates it, just before some minor reports . Entering a trade just before any major news release is a big no in my book of rules and I still have not found evidence to reconsider breaking this rule.

Sorry for my English, I hope that this is clear and does not sound rude (not my intention)

Ok, I am not saying you have to go blindfolded to take a trade knowing that a report comes in 3 minutes after your entry, what I am saying is that usually PA tells you something important is going to happen, because traders just stop trading (activity decreases) and forms some sort of congestion before the release, so essentially you end up avoiding trading not because the news are coming, but because there is not much to do.

Now, if one is not too lazy and knows around what times news come out, one can check a website to know that that PA is all about. But PA will definitely tell you if something is going on or not.

In the end what I mean is that PA is king, the rest is secondary.

 

[Bern]

Ok, I am not saying you have to go blindfolded to take a trade knowing that a report comes in 3 minutes after your entry, what I am saying is that usually PA tells you something important is going to happen, because traders just stop trading (activity decreases) and forms some sort of congestion before the release, so essentially you end up avoiding trading not because the news are coming, but because there is not much to do.

Now, if one is not too lazy and knows around what times news come out, one can check a website to know that that PA is all about. But PA will definitely tell you if something is going on or not.

In the end what I mean is that PA is king, the rest is secondary.

Ok, yes: price action is paramount.

And there are other things, not so ancillary, that are also very important to take into account when trading as, for example: internet connections, proper state of mind to trade, proper equipment, and, in my opinion, checking important news announcements and restraining from trading before them being released, etc.

 

[dbphoenix]

Ok, yes: price action is paramount.

And there are other things, not so ancillary, that are also very important to take into account when trading as, for example: internet connections, proper state of mind to trade, proper equipment, and, in my opinion, checking important news announcements and restraining from trading before them being released, etc.

If you choose to incorporate news into your tactics, there's nothing to stop you from doing so. However, incorporating news is not a part of the SLA. Your results therefore will vary.