Bern's Experiment

[Bern]

140416

- Charts for Market 90min before RTH open
- Day review:

This is what I saw today.

There are two charts: a 20 sec. chart with entries and exits marked and a 1 min chart with only entries marked and some of the sl/dl drawn in real time. Arrows are entries and squares are exits. Sorry for the time scale: there is a -6h difference to ET and -7h to CT.

My comments are in blue if were written in real time and if otherwise they are in black.

-1526 market close to rth open and has been in a overnight tight range between 3513 and 3504-02
-1532 took a long at 1 but I think this is an error since upper boundary of overnight range could reject (As it did, not even reaching 3513 ovh)
I hesitated about reversing the position and taking a short at the reversal, 1st yellow circle and red square, but I did not.
-1534 waiting till range is broken
-1539 took a short at 2 after the ov range broke and buyer were not capable to go back inside again in the mini pullback reject marked
-1541 I exited the previous short (blue square and 2nd yellow circle) and hesitated about taking a long there
-1543 long at 3 although unsure since market is entering back again into the range, maybe it will test upper limit...
-1548 short at 4
-1557 buyers stepped in after the lod and a higher low and it went straight to 3503ish (lower boundary of ov tr again) without giving any pullback. Perhaps after the higher low where I exited...?
-1601 it went back more than 50% of the previous swing from lows, broke the dl and I entered short at 5
-1603 after the upswing from lows and now this downswing that does not look like it will go further down (TDTDB?), I foresee a hinge or a trading range forming ...
-1607 yes, a tr
-1619 breakout of the hinge, waiting for a pullback
-1624 long at 6
(at 1628 should had been clear that this was not going up, forming a hinge and maybe exit before at break even and not waiting more)
-1634 took the short at 7. Hesitated since market was at the level of the midline-apex of the previous tr-hinge
-1638 exited at blue square
-1640 re entered short again at 7b. Doubts about it...
-1647 I added a short at 8, after the previous lod was broken and it pullback-rejected.
-1648 exits
-1653 logn at 9
-1659 exit and done from the day
(and maybe this last long should had been scratched earlier when it was not going above 3491ish and not waiting. TDTDB?)

 

[Bern]

Attached there are two charts showing how I saw the market pre RTH open and also a 1 min chart and a 20 sec showing the trades I took in real time.

Some comments:

1. I exited the short but did not re enter again. I did not "feel" it, I cannot say why.
2. I hesitated taking a long there at the yellow circle but since the news release was in 2 or 3 min, I finally passed.
3. After the news release, I read all this area as a tr-hinge.
4. I hesitated about and did not to take a long. Price went down to meet the mid level-apex of previous tr-hinge and there was the pullback marked at the yellow circle, but I did not read the LOLR as up at that moment.
5. I hesitated and was not very confident to take this trade at highs after having passed previous pullbacks in the upswing but ended entering long.
6. And here I hesitated but I entered short and maybe I should have waited more to see that market was really breaking previous hod.
7. Entered this long and it was rejected almost instantly at hod-dt

 

[Bern]

Market will open at upper extreme of the downtrend channel that started after the highs on early March.

Tight trading range with almost no activity during overnight (main european markets are closed today)

Charts are D, 60m and 15m.

 

[Bern]

1 After breaking the lower boundary of the overnight trading range, going back inside the range and not been able to even test the upper boundary and breaking the tr again to the downside, I entered a short at micro pullback that failed inmediately. I maybe gave it too much room but wanted to be sure that the breakout of the range was definitely failing.

NQ broke above the tr and wen to test Fri H. When it missed to test it and came back more than 50% of the upswing and back inside the ov range, I suspected this could develop into a tr or hinge.

2. Given the above suspicion, I think it was an error to take trade no. 2 short. When it rejected the low of the ov tr, it was clear that it was not going easily down. At this point it looked as the typical hinge fake breakout followed by a move back to the apex and a breakout that was to develope in the opposite direction. I hesitated to enter long at the breakout of the mini springboard circled in yellow, but since it was at a news release, I passed.

3. After the data release, I entered a long that I had some doubts since it was into a potential double top at the hod and into Fridays highs. When it finally could not hold Fri highs and it rejected back inside the day´s range, it looked like a mean reversion was in place back to the tr between 30-35.

4. Short at the pullback after breaking the dl, failing to hold highs and expecting NQ to go at least till down the mid of tr at about 32. I maybe should had partialed at least at 29, the bottom of the ov tr again. Being stopped at 5 was sour, specially since I did not reenter again short since I was not seeing it clear.

NQ went then till the mid-apex of Fri tr-hinge shown in the 15m preparation chart that I posted before.

Called it a day since not really focused.

I see market went back inside the range and then followed to test upper side of today´s range.

 

[Bern]

Will it go down back inside the downtrend channel or continue up and maybe show a clear break to the upside?

Important news release at 0900 CT.

Charts are D, 60m and 10m.

 

[k p]

Will it go down back inside the downtrend channel or continue up and maybe show a clear break to the upside?

Important news release at 0900 CT.

Charts are D, 60m and 10m.

Great charts Bern! Also thanks for the info in regards to the news release. At the top in your second chart where you have 3600 outlined as a top, would you also consider the mean of that range/mini congestion at roughly 3593 as an important level? I see you are marking in the means of congestion areas, which is what I do as well, so I have both 3593 and 3600 as areas to watch if we continue going up at the open.

 

[Bern]

I just opened a 240m chart, and the break above the downtrend channel looks clear, or clearer, compared to the previously posted daily chart...

Anyway, market will show its hand.

****

p.s.: although maybe the channel is not well drawn in the first 240m chart and the second drawing is a more appropriate version. I think I prefer the second one.
What do you think?

 

[Bern]

140422 post

The first long trade (1) was stopped and I took a short (2) after the dl was broken and market made a ret. It did not give much and my next trade was a long (3). I did not give it too much room and when it came back failing to break the high of the day I basically scratched it.

The news release was close and I waited seeing how marked consolidated there at highs for some minutes. Just after the news release there was a downside move from the consolidation that was inmediately rejected back to the upside. I think there is a case for entering a long at the yellow circle (4) and even above at the mini ret formed after the highs were broken (better seen in the 20s chart).

My next trade was a long (5) after the higher db with lolr clearly up. I hesitated to enter before, at the yellow circle 2 before the db was formed, but I do not like these kind of ret with no so much distance to a previous hod that often get rejected when they form a dt. Anyway, the long did not prosper and I scratched after unsuccesfully waiting to see if buyers were willing to continue up (I have to recognize that I have an upward bias at this point since I was not seeing any resistance till 3600).

At that point I felt that this was a tr and I was going to wait till 71 or 77 was broken...but I took a long (6) at the high boundary of the tr and I think this was a mistake since the tr had not clearly broken.

Maybe there was a case for buying the reversal of the tr at the next yellow circle (7) or even buying the next ret at the mean of the tr marked by the magenta circle, but I did nothing and called it a day. Any thoughts about these?

 

[game]

140422 post

The first long trade (1) was stopped and I took a short (2) after the dl was broken and market made a ret. It did not give much and my next trade was a long (3). I did not give it too much room and when it came back failing to break the high of the day I basically scratched it.

The news release was close and I waited seeing how marked consolidated there at highs for some minutes. Just after the news release there was a downside move from the consolidation that was inmediately rejected back to the upside. I think there is a case for entering a long at the yellow circle (4) and even above at the mini ret formed after the highs were broken (better seen in the 20s chart).

My next trade was a long (5) after the higher db with lolr clearly up. I hesitated to enter before, at the yellow circle 2 before the db was formed, but I do not like these kind of ret with no so much distance to a previous hod that often get rejected when they form a dt. Anyway, the long did not prosper and I scratched after unsuccesfully waiting to see if buyers were willing to continue up (I have to recognize that I have an upward bias at this point since I was not seeing any resistance till 3600).

At that point I felt that this was a tr and I was going to wait till 71 or 77 was broken...but I took a long (6) at the high boundary of the tr and I think this was a mistake since the tr had not clearly broken.

Maybe there was a case for buying the reversal of the tr at the next yellow circle (7) or even buying the next ret at the mean of the tr marked by the magenta circle, but I did nothing and called it a day. Any thoughts about these?

If you are seeing the long term LOLR as up, then yes it would make sense to buy at a cheaper price once Price Reverses off the Range bottom. The buys up top in a slow market are often choppy. In my experience, it's better to buy at S or wait for the BO+ret. Only time I see value in buying before the BO is when price races to Range boundary, causing some fear for the shorts and attracting BO longs. Buying before the BO folks gives you some breathing space and you can scratch if the BO does not follow through.

 

[Bern]

Great charts Bern! Also thanks for the info in regards to the news release. At the top in your second chart where you have 3600 outlined as a top, would you also consider the mean of that range/mini congestion at roughly 3593 as an important level? I see you are marking in the means of congestion areas, which is what I do as well, so I have both 3593 and 3600 as areas to watch if we continue going up at the open.

Thanks k p.

Yes I had considered that area and I had not made my my mind regarding it.. I had doubts since there is not so much activity there when it was made for me to decide if box it or not, (the 10th of this month during the ov period). But I also told to myself that the last days of March there was a lot of price activity going on at these levels...(and maybe you are pointing to this also)

I don´t know. Anyway my idea was that the area would be rather at 86-87 and not 93 as you point. I would appreciate more opinions about all of this.

Thanks.