Bernanke’s QE2 Averts Deflation, Spurs Rally, Credit

Quote from MKTrader:
Where did I say anyone who disagrees with me is a shill? Another generalization.
More...
Fair enough, point taken. So this means that I am somehow special to you? What is it that makes you feel this way about me?
As for Shadowstats, yeah there are some questions about his methodology. Fine. There are also tons of questions about gov't econ data and methods. There have been numerous changes in methodology over the years to reflect more "comfortable" numbers. If you don't want to deal with it, fine. You're comfortable that the adjustments are all 100% objective and have nothing to do with massaging? Because your academic papers tell you so?
More...
It's not about the academic papers telling me so. It's about the accepted methodologies being subjected to academic scrutiny and peer review. And yes, application of scientific method with all the due transparency does make me quite a bit more comfortable. Especially compared to John Williams who a) has a bias and b) has repeatedly refused attempts to engage him in the same context.
I'm willing to say CPI, unemployment figures, etc. are roughly hafway between Shadowstats and "official" numbers. But there's no reason not to trust MIT's numbers. If anything, they lean towards establishment/mainstream economics, so there's no reason in the world for them to skew anything. But their data is valuable because it's not manipulated in the least. And it isn't pretty for the deflationist/Fed lover's camp.
More...
Well, firstly, as far as I can tell the MIT index is for online prices, correct? What bias does that introduce into the MIT number? Secondly, as far as I can tell, the average of the daily MIT BPP YoY numbers for the month of March is arnd 2.9%, whereas the official BLS release for the Mar YoY was 2.7%. Maybe I am looking at the wrong thing here, but I just don't see anything that damning.
As for Stockman, he actually presents a good case against Immelt, Paulsen, et. al. who yelled "fire" and induced panic before anyone really thought through what we did. I don't expect his "Why Deficits Do Matter" piece to be answered by that crowd.
More...
Well, I disagree with Stockman. Why is he particularly credible? I don't find his article interesting or well-argued at all. In fact, it's very shrill and definitely more style than substance. If you want to read a serious discussion of the TBTF issue, read Simon Johnson or Andy Haldane, especially the latter, since he's quite rigorous in his analysis.
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

The market is not static it's dynamic, physics plays a huge roll in modern markets, HFT, algorithms,quantum physics, emotions now days plays a minor role, therefore my statement is correct.
More...

Physics play no role in modern markets, this market is emotion. HFT's, algorithms etc all account for a huge amount of volume in the markets, that in turn causes greater price fluctuations, those fluctuations cause emotional reactions from traders, brokers, etc and trickling down to Joe investor, those reactions and emotions are what really causes price changes in the markets these days. Less now is based on fundamentals and actual statistics and instead more on action, cause and effect and emotions. If you don't think so, then you're sorely mistaken and delusional. So no, your statement is not correct.
 
Quote from ElCubano:

im not discussing what took place, It's obvious. I am discussing how the aftermath was handled and how it is still being handled....to benefit the Banks mostly, not the little people ...whatever big guy, we are all in this together...have a great day.
More...

It has to benefit the banks at first, otherwise it wouldn't work. Banks provide credit and capital. It all trickles down from there to the little guy. You can't start the process with the little guy, that would never work. Now alternately I think that the banks have been to cautious and not releasing enough credit quickly enough which is extending this lull, and the government should in effect just force them to lend more, but I don't see that happening.
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Ah, the ole just think how bad it would have been if we did nothing line. Your have been reading your response manuel from the central bank i see.
More...

Perhaps you missed the post where I stated there is no way of knowing if it would have been better or worse overall if nothing was done, so I'll let your ignorance slide and assume you just overlooked it.

As to the second post I made regarding house prices, if you are trying to argue that housing prices would not go lower if deflation were present, then you are a fool and this discussion is over.
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

I have an open mind.
More...

No you don't. Your mind is made up and no matter how anyone responds to your question of "how does the average citizen benefit from a central bank?", you will simply say "I'm not buying it."
 
Quote from Kassz007:

No you don't. Your mind is made up and no matter how anyone responds to your question of "how does the average citizen benefit from a central bank?", you will simply say "I'm not buying it."
More...

That is not true, you do not know me, your looking for an easy way out.
 
FWIW...

Over the last 45 years, inflation has heavily correlated (~+0.90) with the labor market, not commodities. Nominal wages are pacing at +1.7% year-over-year rate, while productivity+2.0%. Unit labor costs continue to deflate as they have done so since Q1 2009. In the 1970's there was not a single quarter of deflating unit labor costs (7% annual rate for entire decade).
 
Quote from Syprik:

FWIW...

Over the last 45 years, inflation has heavily correlated (~+0.90) with the labor market, not commodities. Nominal wages are pacing at +1.7% year-over-year rate, while productivity+2.0%. Unit labor costs continue to deflate as they have done so since Q1 2009. In the 1970's there was not a single quarter of deflating unit labor costs (7% annual rate for entire decade).
More...

Wow - where did you get this info?!?.. I have a hard time finding anything relevant.. I mean even David Rosenberg didn't have data sources like that.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

olias, you are a fed shill/apologist. only a complete and utter fool would believe what the federal reserve is doing is in the best interest of the country, or the world for that matter.
More...

I'm quite, quite confident that I'm no fool. You've called me that before based merely on the fact that I think Bernanke is making the right decisions. How is it I find myself in agreement with James Stock, professor of economics at Harvard University? ...And a host of other economists that have half a brain

...whereas you find yourself in agreement with Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman, etc?

Seriously bro, give up this line of 'anyone who thinks Bernanke is doing a good job is a fool' (paraphrasing you). It exposes you as the fool actually. Who are you listening to?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top