Bernanke Warns Economy Worsening - **Buy Commodities**

Take NYhood and achilles posts and put them together. There you have the formula for a good trading strategy for the forseeable future. This market has stagflation written all over it. My take on commodities is:

gold
oil
coal
nat gas
solar
potash
potash
and more potash.

Sell into rallies and short anything that smells like a babies diaper.
That's my trade strategy.
 
Quote from achilles28:

Inflation during slowdown is bullish commodities (although less pronounced than during economic expansion).

What do you think causes inflation during a slowdown?

Increasing commodity/product prices.

Stagflation = price inflation + declining economic growth.

A good example would be US mid-1970's.
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You cannot compare the 1970's to what we are going into. If you want to look at modern history that is a parellel to what is underway, look at Japan 1990 to current. I don't give a rats ass how low rates go, we are going to face a harsh period of deflation. Commodities have been in a bull market for a little over 6 years now, this is the same period that debt was being taken on like drunken sailors. You are going to lose the demand side of this old bull now, regardless of rates.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RC/M
 
Quote from nazzdack:

It's deflationary and bearish for everything except treasuries. Don't get too bullish towards physical commodities at "these levels".
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Concur that treasuries are the correct medium term trade, but jury is still out on ag commodities. PM's really stratospheric here (particularly platinum) - how much upside vs how much downside?

But AFTER that... then the commodities will tear. And maybe equities too. Question is where and why.
 
Quote from canuckrookie:

Take NYhood and achilles posts and put them together. There you have the formula for a good trading strategy for the forseeable future. This market has stagflation written all over it. My take on commodities is:

gold
oil
coal
nat gas
solar
potash
potash
and more potash.

Sell into rallies and short anything that smells like a babies diaper.
That's my trade strategy.
More...


Spoken like a true BEAR whose outlook on life is as dim as the darkness of his backhole.
 
Quote from NY_HOOD:

gold and oil.
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Seeking safe heavens from what? Your own mental turmoil and despair? A visit to a Psychiatrist's office is considered a highly valuable option rather than this exercise, YES? Nothing will protect you when your own mind turns on you , nothing does!
 
Quote from drsteph:

Concur that treasuries are the correct medium term trade, but jury is still out on ag commodities. PM's really stratospheric here (particularly platinum) - how much upside vs how much downside?

But AFTER that... then the commodities will tear. And maybe equities too. Question is where and why.
More...

Rather than seeking safety, seek safety from your mental delusions. A Psychiatrist is a Medical doctor and he can at least help you at the moment. When paranoia and delusions persist nothing seems safe anywhere, not even in your own room and your own space and body, nothing does.
 
Regarding the Ags, not only will there be recessionary pressures but also biotech land usage is set to double by 2015
http://www.researchrecap.com/index....otech-crop-area-set-to-almost-double-by-2015/

In the past the ags have been very responsive to price increases leading to a boom and bust cycle. I heard on a discussion on NPR the other day that it will take 2, maybe 3 years for the bust cycle to come at current demand growth.

A safer play maybe companies like MON, MOS (my horse in the race), POT, or just DBA, the index that is equal weighting of soy, sugar, wheat, and corn.
 
Quote from day7793:

Seeking safe heavens from what? Your own mental turmoil and despair? A visit to a Psychiatrist's office is considered a highly valuable option rather than this exercise, YES? Nothing will protect you when your own mind turns on you , nothing does!
More...

despair is a step beyond denial lol

maybe your delusion is seeing provocations where there aren't any?
 
Quote from Mvic:

Regarding the Ags, not only will there be recessionary pressures but also biotech land usage is set to double by 2015
http://www.researchrecap.com/index....otech-crop-area-set-to-almost-double-by-2015/

In the past the ags have been very responsive to price increases leading to a boom and bust cycle. I heard on a discussion on NPR the other day that it will take 2, maybe 3 years for the bust cycle to come at current demand growth.

A safer play maybe companies like MON, MOS (my horse in the race), POT, or just DBA, the index that is equal weighting of soy, sugar, wheat, and corn.
More...


Nothing is safe unless you cure your mental delusions:

1/ Recession is here
2/Sky is falling
3/Real estate will never come back
4/This is a bear market- sell into strength and run for the hills
5/Gold and Oil will protect me ( Oh yeah ? )
6/Its all over now. There is no hope. The future is dark
7/I am a US citizen I am entitled to everything.
 
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