Bernanke Says `Will Act as Needed' to Limit Credit-Rout Impact

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Thank's for your post. Unfortunately I missed it live.

I've had breakfast and a few smoke breaks with Santelli over the years. He's a nice, bright, talkative guy. Don't ask him what he thinks of the yield curve though. You might as well learn to build a watch.

Kudlow is someone whose work I subscribed to when he was at Bear. You're being a bit hard Sponger. Kudlow and Ed Hyman are two economists who really do (did?) keep their ear to the street. And I don't mean Wall Street.

That said in principal I agree with Rick. In fact I posted the same argument on ET a few day's back.

Pa(b)st Prime


Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 1664


08-29-07 06:55 PM

The Fed as well as Pabst are concerned that cheaper borrowing costs vis a vis a lower Funds target is more likely to find it's way into the inflated Treasury trade rather than into the depressed corporate/mortgage market.

There's no shortage of liquidity (10's traded 4.50 this morning) just a shortage of fund investors with balls.

Oil was up how much today? Was that Wheat I saw up 22 cents? Let's not forget that deflated, panicky NDX.........

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1586184&highlight=liquidity#post1586184

i thought you were leaving forever after that top call?
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:

Hmm where to start. Have you ever heard the expression "leverage is a double edged sword"? Maybe you should think about that one.

Try using your brain and applying it to reality. The 10% home value appreciation is not too reliable. It is also not liquid, it's unrealized until the home is actually sold. The debt payments have to be made regardless.

Borrowing at 5% and investing at possible unrealized 10% in an asset which is being driven by sheep mentality & cheap credit is not a smart deal, it's more like gambling.

omg.

I was not talking about housing but more generally about assets - check my post. for instance stock market is up quite a bit in the past 5-15 years if you did not notice. that forms big portion of household assets.

it is true that you can't easily sell your home - after all why would you do it?
But you can't ignore the fact that increasing price level increases the value of houses (if only because of tobin's q - google it). So it is an asset - maybe with an haircut.

the graph is completely (and likely intentionally) misleading (to start with it does not say if it is in constant dollars or not). if you look at almost any economy worldwide you will see a similar pattern since the fall of iron curtain. we did not have wide use of credit cards combined with internet before...

that said it is true that us consumer is a special beast and likely the most leveraged of all. but at the same time he is the richest, rates are still very low and inflation is eroding his paper debt etc. - so it does not look like an idiotic move.

anyway - there are may people on ET which are stupid but harmless (like "buy, no risk etc" type of stuff). most of people here know economics only from cnbc (as opposed to university/phd) and never worked on wall street .
then there are some that post biased reality in a little bit smarter way - i am on crusade against those :D
 
Mostly I find Kudlow to be a perma-bull with an obvious political agenda. However, his call for lower rates is a longtime thing, and has to do with supply-side logic: a greater supply of goods will soak up the extra liquidity, is the idea.
We are experiencing this in the real world, you know, with China producing a mountain of goods that, as we all know, has kept the prices of all kinds of things down. So, not something to dismiss out of hand.
I do like Santelli a lot, however. He comes across as both extremely intelligent and very street-smart.
 
I may have been a little harsh, but then again, economists get paid for predicting and analyzing - and they certainly aren't held accountable for the firm's P&L at the end of the day.

I will give him this Pabst - he made a successful jump from brokerage to talk show!

Gotta like Rick - he calls it like he sees it.

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Thank's for your post. Unfortunately I missed it live.

I've had breakfast and a few smoke breaks with Santelli over the years. He's a nice, bright, talkative guy. Don't ask him what he thinks of the yield curve though. You might as well learn to build a watch.

Kudlow is someone whose work I subscribed to when he was at Bear. You're being a bit hard Sponger. Kudlow and Ed Hyman are two economists who really do (did?) keep their ear to the street. And I don't mean Wall Street.

That said in principal I agree with Rick. In fact I posted the same argument on ET a few day's back.

Pa(b)st Prime:p
 
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