Bernanke put the oil speculation nonsense to rest today

MarketMasher · Apr 30, 2011

Quote from piezoe:

A simple calculation will tell you what fraction of the rise in oil price is attributable to dollar deflation.

You could compare the change in the price of oil in another currency....

Still, it would be easy enough to show the amount of speculation for concerned citizens.

All they have to say is "For the next 3 months (1Q) you have to take delivery."

Then when the price of oil keeps going up, everybody can say "See?! Told you so!!"

Random.Capital · May 1, 2011

If the USD truly was the reserve currency, the price of oil would not change in USD outside dramatic changes in supply/demand in crude.

Since the price of oil is in face changing most dramatically, either the supply/demand situation changing dramatically, or the USD is not really the reserve currency.

RCG Trader · May 1, 2011

Quote from Visaria:

The Bernanke need to smarten up and understand the difference between demand for physical oil and demand for futures contracts.

The Ben Bernank is a disciple of The Goldman Sachs. He knows. And you might know too, but you are a drop in the ocean, and any lip from you and the tin foil hat will be put upon your head, and that will be that.

BwPirt · May 4, 2011

Quote from RCG Trader:

The Ben Bernank is a disciple of The Goldman Sachs. He knows. And you might know too, but you are a drop in the ocean, and any lip from you and the tin foil hat will be put upon your head, and that will be that.

Yeah, he's no idiot. He knows exactly what he's doing.

Ghost of Cutten · May 5, 2011

Quote from ChkitOut:

And gas, of course, is a necessity. People need to drive to work. So it's obviously a bad development to see gas prices rise so much.

Bernanke is wrong on this. People can use public transport, move nearer to work, walk or jog to work, use bicycles, work partly from home, use LPG or electric-powered cars, car-pool, and so on.

Public transport in the USA is pathetic, this is a choice not a matter of necessity.

Agree with him about oil prices. Amazing how many retards think otherwise.

Ghost of Cutten · May 5, 2011

Quote from the1:

This is complete bullshit. Oil is rising because the dollar is falling.

If that were the case, oil would rise only at the rate the dollar falls (i.e. if the dollar was down 15%, oil would be up 17.6%), whereas in fact oil has gone up significantly more in % terms. Since the dollar peak in June of last year, the currency is off 17% whereas oil is up 54% from the same date, so clearly the majority of the oil move has not been currency-related.

In any case, a falling dollar is a supply/demand issue also, not one of speculative machinations by market participants, so the main point stands.

Tsing Tao · May 5, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

If that were the case, oil would rise only at the rate the dollar falls (i.e. if the dollar was down 15%, oil would be up 17.6%), whereas in fact oil has gone up significantly more in % terms. Since the dollar peak in June of last year, the currency is off 17% whereas oil is up 54% from the same date, so clearly the majority of the oil move has not been currency-related.

you're conveniently leaving out the speculative belief in the dollar falling. it's not just the actual depreciation of the currency, but the speculative belief in where it is heading next.

what was the "main" point again?

jlancaster · May 5, 2011

The price of oil is not simple. You can't say "oh it's going up because of inflation of the dollar" or "oh its all speculators."

There are so many factors that affect the price of oil. Inflation, speculators, OPEC...

OPEC pretty much has the world in the palm of its hand.

olias · May 5, 2011

Quote from jlancaster:

The price of oil is not simple. You can't say "oh it's going up because of inflation of the dollar" or "oh its all speculators."

There are so many factors that affect the price of oil. Inflation, speculators, OPEC...

OPEC pretty much has the world in the palm of its hand.

This is correct. I think everyone will agree inflation is a factor. It's just one of the least important factors, well behind supply and demand. Glad there are some of here who get tired of simpletons who say 'Bernanke's fault!' for everything. Not only are they wrong, but they are so sure of themselves that we just have to speak up and try to educate them

olias · May 5, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Bernanke is wrong on this. People can use public transport, move nearer to work, walk or jog to work, use bicycles, work partly from home, use LPG or electric-powered cars, car-pool, and so on.

Public transport in the USA is pathetic, this is a choice not a matter of necessity.

Agree with him about oil prices. Amazing how many retards think otherwise.

It is amazing given the fact that this is a trading community. Sorry to keep saying this, but if people hear something often enough, they will believe it. Even if the evidence says otherwise. Worse, they attach their ego and pride into being 'right' and we wind up in pointless debate.

Folks, if you're going to come here and debate, please have the integrity to start from a position that you could be wrong. It's ok to change your mind on something. I think sometimes we just like to debate as sport but that's not really getting the most out of the experience.