Bernanke is right
- Thread starter intradaybill
- Start date
I think you may find some pickup in homelessness. But it's just on a completely (much smaller) level to the US.
Re the high debt/GDP levels - is it a problem when 95% of the debt is financed by the Japanese themselves? The Japanese have to park their enormous savings somewhere, it just goes in JGBs rather than directly into the banking system via deposits.
More preferable to relying on foreigners to finance your government debts, I think. When currencies and economies collapse it is usually because they cannot finance their external (foreign currency) debt obligations. And of course a currency collapse makes those obligations bigger in real (local currency) terms so the problem worsens.
That isn't a risk for Japan because of only 5% external funding for government debt.
But it might be for US, UK...
If you include some of the other US/UK government 'off-balance' sheet debt I think the US and Japan public debt levels might be in the same ballpark.
Re the high debt/GDP levels - is it a problem when 95% of the debt is financed by the Japanese themselves? The Japanese have to park their enormous savings somewhere, it just goes in JGBs rather than directly into the banking system via deposits.
More preferable to relying on foreigners to finance your government debts, I think. When currencies and economies collapse it is usually because they cannot finance their external (foreign currency) debt obligations. And of course a currency collapse makes those obligations bigger in real (local currency) terms so the problem worsens.
That isn't a risk for Japan because of only 5% external funding for government debt.
But it might be for US, UK...
If you include some of the other US/UK government 'off-balance' sheet debt I think the US and Japan public debt levels might be in the same ballpark.
Should the Fed be concerned about "bubbles"?
Can Fed target monetary policy so precisely to effect a particular asset class?
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On another note:
Cash for clunkers and dishwashers was a success? Stimulus checks basically saw an increase in porn subscriptions.
Can the Fed predict where the money will go and what are the signals to indicate everything is going according to plan.
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If housing was a bubble why did the same policies in place at the time give us $150 bbl oil. How could a change in policy to affect real estate make a difference in the price of oil at that particular time?
Can Fed target monetary policy so precisely to effect a particular asset class?
-----------
On another note:
Cash for clunkers and dishwashers was a success? Stimulus checks basically saw an increase in porn subscriptions.
Can the Fed predict where the money will go and what are the signals to indicate everything is going according to plan.
--------------
If housing was a bubble why did the same policies in place at the time give us $150 bbl oil. How could a change in policy to affect real estate make a difference in the price of oil at that particular time?
The problem with any argument claiming the existence of deflation is that if you traded on the deflation thesis in recent years, your ass would have been handed to you on a silver platter. The market isn't always right, but it usually isn't wrong this consistently for such a long period of time. But be my guest, keep on sticking your head in the sand and losing your shirt on that bet. If Bernanke were a trader, he'd have blown out a long time ago.
Yes, I am going to dig up the exact references and compile them into smth readable. You're grasping at straws here, m8.
Aren't we talking about Japan here? I have tried to trade the "emerging inflation" thesis in Japan in recent years, and not once. Talk about getting your ass handed to you on a silver platter. You try buying some JGBi's and let me know how that feels.
No need for drama... In 2009 I did a lot of digging into the state of affairs in Japan and there was an excellent presentation from an economist I used to talk to quite a lot. Very comprehensive and detailed. I am trying to locate it.Quote from benwm:
this will be interesting...
drum roll please...
Same here... I would be happy to discuss, especially with people who strongly disagree. It's one of the few ways to avoid getting married to a position/view. Gimme a few pls and I'll be back.